todays bet of the day

fifawcs · 06-10-08, 04:00 PM

The answer to the last question is no. And without Ortiz, the answer becomes "far from it."

ryanXL977 · 06-10-08, 04:03 PM

not far from it at fenway
not at all
manny
youk
pedroia
drew
crisp
lugo
lowell
varitek

still top 3-4 even without ortiz

and baltimores isnt top 20

SexyMit · 06-10-08, 04:17 PM

How are you doing on your bets of the day? I thought you were like 4 out of 5 going into weekend or something?

ryanXL977 · 06-10-08, 04:18 PM

i am 6 out of 7 so far

knock on wood. i have been on a 58% mlb betting clip over the last 3 weeks.
at about 52.5% for the yr

SexyMit · 06-10-08, 04:19 PM

I was kinda leaning Boston also, was thinking of tagging along.

ryanXL977 · 06-10-08, 04:21 PM

well if you dont have the balls for the rl, the ml is a lock, to me
i just dont see them losing this game. they win like 80% of home games, so -200 isnt a bad price. its not like laying -200 on mussina. its beckett, and its the sox.

but i like the rl

chipski · 06-10-08, 04:23 PM

rsox are the biggest fav on the board for tues .
there is a category for that as well . biggest fav on board . and also in al/nl for each given night ..
i was looking at that game as one of the screwjobs to happen .
but you may be right on just the same .

going back 1 week for semi reflection
yanks were biggest fav on board on mon and lost
biggest fav on board sun was halladay and they won 5 - 4
yanks were biggest fav on board sat and won 12 - 11
yaanks were biggest fav on board fri and lost 2 - 1
phils with hamels was biggest fav on board on thurs and won 5 - 0
rsox and wsox were tied being biggest favs on wed and they both won 5 - 1 and 6 - 4
this time last week on tues biggest fav was braves and they won 5 - 4

if you looked at this for all of this year and the #s for say 05 - 07 ....
this always applies , as the big fav is always subject to be a big disappoinment .
the big odds are always tempting though no doubt . who knows if cabrera will walk everyone in the park tonight or pitch good . i'm not sure what will happen .
i know the rsox have been on a roll and is about time for the roll to slow .
but again you could be right on .
gl

ryanXL977 · 06-10-08, 04:34 PM

well yanks are always biggest fave ont he board and they lose
thats bc the yanks arent a good team.
the redsox, however, are

go sox

chipski · 06-10-08, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

well yanks are always biggest fave ont he board and they lose
thats bc the yanks arent a good team.
the redsox, however, are

go sox

i knew that is what you would say . lol
just so happens yanks were at home playing kc for 4 games is the only reason it happened to look like that .

2 tuesdays ago only 2 favs won in the al out of the 7 games .
tues before that only 2 favs won in the al out of the 7 games
tues before that 4 of the 7 won and bos won 2 - 1 at home over the fricken royals .
they could have lost very easily , one man can make the difference on any night . it matters not what the name of the team is or happens to be . is a baseball game not a tennis match ... but it can fall into a tennis match category when one player has a great game , say for the o's, kc, wash , any team we see as bad . one man can break another team in said game . always . or if one man has bad game ... or 2 .. scenarios are endless really .
or we would bet the house .

fifawcs · 06-10-08, 04:38 PM

I personally don't believe the sox are even going to be in contention for the playoffs without a guy like Ortiz in the lineup. He makes their entire lineup. Besides Manny, Ortiz is the guy who gets the big hits in tough situations. He's their clutch guy. Kinda what Arod was to the Yanks when they were losing.

ryanXL977 · 06-10-08, 04:40 PM

sox win that division with or without ortiz i think. he is very replaceable and they could also trade very easily for someone, with all their young pitching.
ortiz isnt as clutch as he was, manny is though. ellsbury, drew, and youk make this offense better than last years bc they are all having better or years, or full seasons

red sox win that division if blue jays dont

yanks wont make the playoffs

fifawcs · 06-10-08, 04:55 PM

What you don't realize is the idea behind the Sox's lineup is the 1-2 punch in Ortiz and Manny. The idea is that nobody is going to wanna walk Ortiz cuz Manny is right behind him. When Ortiz isn't in the equation, the opposing pitcher is not mind giving his replacement a pitch to hit. Not only that, but Ortiz is an icon in the clubhouse who has a great effect on a lot of the young talent.

Are you sure you aren't Steve Phillips from Baseball Tonight? You sound just like him when you deny the Yankees a chance at the playoffs. The Yankees are known for heating up at the start of mid-June interleague play. You certainly do not want to fade the Yankees in July. Last year for example, the Yankees batted .300 post all star break as compared to .280 pre-allstar. They went 19-9 last July. In 2006, they went 16-9. In 2005, they went 17-9. You get the idea

chipski · 06-10-08, 04:55 PM

nice feedback guys ,
continuing from where i left on on the tues look ,
the tues before that
only 3 favs won of the 7 games and the rsox lost to the o's in balt 5 - 4 . beckett started . yes ortiz was playing . o's had a 4 run 3rd inning . the most unlikely guy to beat me did in fact beat me that night .
luke scott hit a 3 run homer . it was his first homer in his last xx at bats , a very high and almost unbelievable # . that was 4 tuesdays back on may 13th .

the tues before that only 2 favs won of the 7 games in the al . bos won as road dog in det
the tues before that only 2 favs won of the 7 games in the al . rsox won as lil home dog over halladay 1 - 0
tues before that it didn't matter which fav you had really as 6 of the 7 favs won , rsox won at home 7 - 6 over weaver . the one fav no good was the a's at home with blanton lost to twins livan hernandez ...

by looking at all this , i would say that tonight (tues) is due for a great tuesday fav day for the american leauge .

ryanXL977 · 06-10-08, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by fifawcs

What you don't realize is the idea behind the Sox's lineup is the 1-2 punch in Ortiz and Manny. The idea is that nobody is going to wanna walk Ortiz cuz Manny is right behind him. When Ortiz isn't in the equation, the opposing pitcher is not mind giving his replacement a pitch to hit. Not only that, but Ortiz is an icon in the clubhouse who has a great effect on a lot of the young talent.

Are you sure you aren't Steve Phillips from Baseball Tonight? You sound just like him when you deny the Yankees a chance at the playoffs. The Yankees are known for heating up at the start of mid-June interleague play. You certainly do not want to fade the Yankees in July. Last year for example, the Yankees batted .300 post all star break as compared to .280 pre-allstar. They went 19-9 last July. In 2006, they went 16-9. In 2005, they went 17-9. You g
et the idea

yes, i realize who david ortiz is. nevertheless, he is not CLOSE to the hitter manny is and never was. he is not CLOSE to manny. they can win without him, they are better than the yanks without him
the yanks have no starters, no pen, and no defense
they have a bunch of good hitters with good eyes, thats it
no comaraderie, no teamwork, no chemistry. the yanks surely have a chance to make the playoffs., but the fact you think the redsox dont, makes me believe you are a yanks homer
i am no redsox or yanks fan, i dont care who wins
but yanks arent a good team, they have no pitching
none

fifawcs · 06-10-08, 05:07 PM

Honestly, I wouldn't mind having the Sox in the playoffs. It makes for interesting games. But the truth of the matter is, they won't make it. Unlike you and Steve Phillips, I don't deny them every year. Last year was a monstrous regular season, I knew they would make either the Wild Card or the AL East.

It's funny that you are talking all of this crap about the Yankees when the Red Sox are so much worse in so many categories. They have an atrocious bullpen, way worse than any Yankees pen. They have so many costly injuries, i.e. Schilling, Ortiz, and Dice-K. How can you say that the Yanks have no pitching? Mike Mussina is tied for the lead in wins. Wang has struggled lately but is extremely talented. Joba is untouchable. Rasner has been good. And Pettitte, while he has struggled as of late, is still very good.

ryanXL977 · 06-10-08, 05:11 PM

wins mean nothing to me, they are not indicative of anything. rasner is good? are you being serious? pettite is not very good, he is an average pitcher with a big name who pitches in new york. i am not talking shit aobbut the yanks, i am talking shit about ther pitching.
they have top 2 hitting every year, i am sure they will this year

but they have NO pen, no pitching
same as every year
this is why they lose to cleveland or the angels or the red sox over and over again
yanks are old, they dont play d, and they have no pitching

zero

ps. i dont watch espn so i dont know what phillips says.
i watch games only, no sports shows

ryanXL977 · 06-10-08, 05:16 PM

also
whetehrt the yanks or redsox make the playoffs or not
the point of my thread was bosox today is the best bet
thats all my point was

BadBeatBodog · 06-10-08, 05:22 PM

How is it not the White Sox? Even if they lose how are they not the absolute best bet of the day going into it?

ryanXL977 · 06-10-08, 05:23 PM

because the white sox are on the road, though a bet i will also do

and even the best road team probably wins as much as it loses on the road, give or take

ryanXL977 · 06-10-08, 05:24 PM

white sox aint a bad bet either

maritime · 06-10-08, 05:29 PM

Redsox will lose around 40% of their home games from this point out. The days of blindly betting on them at home are coming to an end. At their current pace they'd end up 66-15 at home.

ryanXL977 · 06-10-08, 05:31 PM

who knows
maybe they win 60 at home
and 40 on the road, or maybe 30
who knows

they are good at home

also, say i concede your point
bosox win 60% from here on out and lose 40%
what % of becketts starts will they lost, at home, from here out. maybe 20%?

BadBeatBodog · 06-10-08, 05:36 PM

Home/Road in baseball probably matters the least of any sport.

maritime · 06-10-08, 05:38 PM

No team has gone past 57 wins at home since 1998 (when the yanks won 114 games). This redsox team won't break 56. If you bet the redsox every home game from here out you will lose money.

ryanXL977 · 06-10-08, 05:41 PM

that wasnt my question
if you bet every beckett vs cabrera, will you lose money
because thats all i bet today
beckett vs cabrera

the redsox will win 75% of home games of beckett vs cabrera

maritime · 06-10-08, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

who knows
maybe they win 60 at home
and 40 on the road, or maybe 30
who knows

they are good at home

also, say i concede your point
bosox win 60% from here on out and lose 40%
what % of becketts starts will they lost, at home, from here out. maybe 20%?

The line will adjust for that (Beckett) since the line is hyperinflated when he pitches.

ryanXL977 · 06-10-08, 05:43 PM

we shall see
so far, he dont look good

i did redsox-1.5 +110 so i dotn see how thats bad value

maritime · 06-10-08, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

that wasnt my question
if you bet every beckett vs cabrera, will you lose money
because thats all i bet today
beckett vs cabrera

the redsox will win 75% of home games of beckett vs cabrera

where did you get 75% from? you're not accounting for the line. It's not like you get the sox at even money.

maritime · 06-10-08, 05:47 PM

I wish you luck Ryan, I do. I just see an opportunity coming, ie. pick your spots and fade the sox at home because this is not the 98 Yankees, the sox are no better this year than their championship teams, and therefore I trust the law of averages that they will not keep this up at home.

element1286 · 06-10-08, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by fifawcs

Honestly, I wouldn't mind having the Sox in the playoffs. It makes for interesting games. But the truth of the matter is, they won't make it. Unlike you and Steve Phillips, I don't deny them every year. Last year was a monstrous regular season, I knew they would make either the Wild Card or the AL East.

It's funny that you are talking all of this crap about the Yankees when the Red Sox are so much worse in so many categories. They have an atrocious bullpen, way worse than any Yankees pen. They have so many costly injuries, i.e. Schilling, Ortiz, and Dice-K. How can you say that the Yanks have no pitching? Mike Mussina is tied for the lead in wins. Wang has struggled lately but is extremely talented. Joba is untouchable. Rasner has been good. And Pettitte, while he has struggled as of late, is still very good.

Wang, Mussina, Chamberlain, Pettitte, and Rasner, vs Beckett, Dice K, Lester, Buchholz, and Wakefield. The rotations are not even close, even with Dice K out and Colon in.

Red Sox are going to make the playoffs, and the Yankees are probably not.

chipski · 06-10-08, 05:58 PM

this time last year look :
365 days ago today <<< give or take some days with leap year or whatever ...

was interleauge play
game 1 > rocks 1 at 2 rsox -170 cook vs wake o/u 10
game 2 > rocks 12 at 2 rsox -260 schilling vs fogg o/u 10
game 3 > rocks 7 at 1 rsox -220 francis vs beckett

rsox lost 12 - 2 and 7 - 1 in -200 and up games at home with their big boys startng . yes big pop was in the lineup . see it ? betting baseball can be a humbling experience no matter how easy games may look .
those that know this truly can do okay .

ryanXL977 · 06-10-08, 05:59 PM

so this bet doesnt look good, but i laid no juice and got +110
win some lose some

go chisox

chipski · 06-10-08, 06:03 PM

yes times can change as it was this time last year on a tues night that verlander threw a no hitter in det against the brew crew . lmao

ryanXL977 · 06-10-08, 06:06 PM

well i am not watching this game till the sox tie it
if they tie it, i will switch back
im watching chisox also
my two bets of the day
only need one