Front Page Picks (Tue., Jun 10)

Willie Bee · 06-10-08, 11:11 AM

Boston Red Sox -1½ (+103) vs. Orioles

Game Time: 06/10/2008 06:05 PM -
By: Bryan Leonard | 10starpicks.com

Baltimore's Daniel Cabrera has been an effective pitcher this season, but tonight against Josh Beckett on his own mound in Boston, the Red Sox will pepper the Orioles starter.

Daniel Cabrera takes the hill for the third time this season against the Red Sox. He has allowed only five earned runs in 14 innings of work which is very surprising against this patient Boston offense. But we expect the Red Sox bats to figure him out tonight as they have him at home for the first time all season.

It's hard enough to pitch three straight terrific games against this offense, and we may have picked up a sign to take advantage of. Cabrera is a ground ball pitcher but in his last three starts he has allowed more balls in the air than at any other time this season. Last season he surpassed 200 innings for the first time in his career, could all those innings be paying a toll on him right now?

He's never been a pitcher who goes deep into games but this season he's at over 100 pitches per outing on a regular basis. Last year it took him 34 starts to accumulate the 204 innings. At this current pace he would pitch 225 innings in 2008. Every pitcher goes through a period of tired arm. We may be on to something before the linesmaker can make an adjustment.

The Red Sox send stud Josh Beckett to the hill and he is in great current form. In his last three starts he has allowed just five earned runs in 19 innings of work. He has a 24/3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over those three games. The last time he faced Baltimore he struck out 10 Orioles; we very likely could see a repeat.

Boston has feasted on right-handers in Fenway all season so they could easily turn this into a romp. We have no problem laying the tariff here as we expect a one-sided affair. Play Boston on the run line.

Free Pick: Red Sox -1½ (+103)

Willie Bee · 06-10-08, 11:15 AM

Dog Oakland Athletics +110 vs. New York Yankees

Game Time: 06/10/2008 10:05 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

This will be the first time the Yankees have seen Oakland lefty Dana Eveland, giving him the advantage. Play the Athletics as home pups Tuesday night versus New York.

The Yankees are coming off a split series at home against the Royals following a loss on Monday. It certainly was not the way New York wanted to end its homestand as it ended up 4-3 and now hits the road where it is 14-17 on the season.

The offense is starting to come around but the pitching is still a big concern, posting a 4.44 ERA on the season. The starters have put up a 5.81 ERA over the last 10 games and only three times has the starter made it through seven innings over that stretch.

Oakland took their series finale against the Angels on Sunday to salvage the final game of that set and improve to 13-6 over its last 19 games at home. The A's have used clutch hitting to pick up some big wins but it has been consistent pitching that has made the difference. They have allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of their last 17 games, giving up an average of 3.7 runs per game over that span. Oakland is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings against the Yankees and 11-4 in its last 15 against the A.L. East.

Chien-Ming Wang has been struggling lately and is winless in his last six starts with a 6.45 ERA over that span. His last four outings have been disasters as his ERA is at 8.75 and he has allowed five runs or more in all four of those games. He has been fortunate to receive a lot of run support as the Yankees somehow have pulled out the last three games. Wang's drought is the longest of his career as he had never before gone more than three straight starts without a victory.

Oakland counters with Dana Eveland who has provided some great outings for the rotation. His last two starts have not been good ones especially his last one where he allowed a season high seven walks. Before allowing 10 runs in his past two starts, Eveland had surrendered just six runs total over his first four starts in May.

He has been solid at home, posting a 3.13 ERA despite the last two efforts. This is his first ever start against the Yankees which is a big edge for the pitcher. Play Oakland for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Athletics +110

Willie Bee · 06-10-08, 11:16 AM

Cash Angels -115 at home in Anaheim vs. the Tampa Bay Rays

Game Time: 06/10/2008 10:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

After a good start to the season, the Rays are struggling on this road trip with four losses in seven games. Back the Angels at home in Anaheim against Tampa Bay.

Our Tuesday night MLB selection is on the Los Angeles Angels at home in Anaheim over the Tampa Bay Rays.

Rays 26-year-old starter James Shields' season just keeps getting tougher and tougher. Shields has one of the most lopsided home-road biases in baseball, and his last road start was his worst yet as he only lasted a single inning, giving up four earned runs before plunking the Red Sox' Coco Crisp which resulted in a bench-clearing brawl and Shields getting suspended. He has dropped his appeal and will begin serving his suspension immediately following tonight's start against the Angels and their right-hander Jered Weaver.

Shields has been simply horrible away from his home park, Tropicana Field (1-3 with a 7.06 ERA and 42 hits in under 30 innings), and tonight won't get any easier as the Angels have been red-hot (7-1 in their last eight games going into Monday night's contest).

Tampa's star outfielder Carl Crawford was suspended in the same game as Shields, but he will continue playing for the time being pending his appeal. However, what's of a much bigger concern is Crawford's performance of late (or lack thereof). Crawford is a career .294 hitter but is batting only .266 so far in '08 and looks like a very tired ballplayer. Take the Angels.

Free Pick: Angels -115

Willie Bee · 06-10-08, 11:17 AM

White Sox -104 at Detroit Tigers

Game Time: 06/10/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Lee Kostroski | covers.com

Ozzie Guillen's rant has lit a fire under the White Sox who have reeled off seven straight wins. Back Jose Contreras and Chicago tonight on the road at the Detroit Tigers.

The White Sox refuse to lose with a comeback rally on Monday to sweep the Twins and make it a seven-game winning streak. The Sox have scored an average of 8.7 runs per game during the last two series and Chicago has the largest division lead in all of baseball despite getting little attention nationally.

The White Sox have built a strong first half record despite a road-heavy early season schedule as well, as Chicago has played five more road games than home games.

Although Chicago has better numbers against right-handed pitching, the Sox did hit Nate Robertson hard earlier this season and Chicago had many opportunities against Twins starter Glen Perkins on Monday before breaking through against the bullpen. Chicago has won five of six meetings in this series so far in 2008 after going 11-7 against Detroit last season, and the Sox are 23-9 in the last 32 games at Comerica Park.

Detroit owns the second worst bullpen ERA in the American League and the Tigers are 4-8 behind Robertson. He owns a 6.03 ERA and opponents are hitting .290 against Robertson who has allowed at least four runs in 10 of his 12 starts this season, and this could be the perfect storm the way that the Sox are hitting the ball right now. The Tigers are hitting just .237 in the last 10 games and Detroit has won just 13 of Robertson's last 40 starts.

White Sox ace Jose Contreras has quietly been among the best pitchers in baseball, allowing one or fewer runs in seven of his last 10 starts, compiling a 2.18 ERA in that span.

Free Pick: White Sox -104

Willie Bee · 06-10-08, 11:19 AM

Follow Florida Marlins +108 vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Game Time: 06/10/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Scott Spreitzer | sportspic.com

The Phillies are 1-5 in Brett Myers' six road starts this season while the Marlins have won Ricky Nolasco's last four outings. Follow Florida at home against Philadelphia.

I'm riding the Marlins on Tuesday night at home in Florida against the visiting Philadelphia Phillies.

Brett Myers toes the rubber for the Phillies tonight and he's been a disaster away from home. Myers is 0-5 in six road starts, getting hammered for 27 earned runs and a hefty 68 base runners in just 34 innings. Folks, that's a 7.15 ERA and 2.00 WHIP, to go along with a .361 BAA. Myers has had serious problems in this stadium in his career and I suspect he'll be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Marlin hitters.

Florida has cashed three of Ricky Nolasco's last four starts and I expect another winning ticket tonight. I'm backing Florida on Tuesday.

Free Pick: Marlins +108

Willie Bee · 06-10-08, 11:20 AM

Maddux, SD Padres -125 vs Dodgers

Game Time: 06/10/2008 10:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Greg Maddux is in great shape right and the Padres have brought the money home in his last four starts. Side with Maddux and San Diego at home in Petco against the LA Dodgers.

The San Diego Padres send Greg Maddux to the mound against their neighborhood rivals knowing he is in sharp KW form with three walks and 13 strikeouts in his last three starts.

San Diego has won Maddux' last four starts and five of his last six. He also owns a super-sharp 1.73 ERA at home this season, as opposed to a 5.01 ERA on the road. With that we'll stay at home with Maddux and the Padres here tonight.

Free Pick: Padres -125

Willie Bee · 06-10-08, 11:21 AM

Cleveland Indians -174 vs. Twins

Game Time: 06/10/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Vernon Croy | 10starpicks.com

C.C. Sabathia presents a much bigger challenge to Minnesota hitters tonight than Scott Baker poses to Cleveland's lineup. Lay the chalk on the Indians at home versus the Twins.

The Twins have lost five straight and they have struggled against lefty starters this season with a 6-9 record while Twins opponents are hitting .361 against them over their last seven games and averaging 7.3 runs per game.

The Indians are hitting the ball very well lately averaging 7.0 RPG over their last seven games while hitting .295 as a team, and I look for their bats to stay hot tonight at home against Minnesota's Scott Baker (2-0, 4.03 ERA) who has struggled on the road with an ERA of 6.06 this season. Tribe southpaw C.C. Sabathia (3-8, 4.81 ERA) has pitched solid over his last three starts with an ERA of 3.86 while lasting seven innings per start despite the 0-2 record.

The Twins' bullpen has struggled on the road this season with an ERA of 6.06 over 84.2 innings and the Indians are 30-14 in their last 44 home games when favored by -150 to -175. Take the Indians Tuesday night.

Free Pick: Indians -174

Willie Bee · 06-10-08, 11:22 AM

Oakland A’s +110 to upset Yankees

Game Time: 06/10/2008 10:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Chien-Ming Wang is being priced as if he is in form here, which he certainly is not, and Dana Eveland has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts. The A’s have value as home underdogs.

It is no secret that Chein-Ming Wang of the New York Yankees is in the worst slump of his career, but since the Yankees are always overvalued, he is still priced as a road favorite here vs. a decent Oakland Athletics team with a promising young starter.

Wang has a staggering 8.75 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over his last four starts while allowing at least five earned runs on each occasion, yet the Yankees scored enough runs to win his last three outings. Wang simply cannot continue to get that lucky, and he is really showing no signs of improvement after allowing seven runs and nine baserunners while lasting only 4.1 innings vs. the Toronto Blue Jays last time out, only to bailed out by Jason Giambi’s walk-off homer in a 9-8 Yankees win.

The Athletics are a somewhat surprising 34-29 including 21-15 at home, thanks to some fine young starting pitchers and a very good bullpen. Tonight’s starter Dana Eveland has allowed three earned runs or less in five of his last six starts, and he has enjoyed pitching in Oakland thus far as he is 3-1 with a nice 3.13 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home. The southpaw should be doubly tough on a Yankee lineup that has never faced him, and he has the support of an Oakland bullpen that ranks second in the American League with an excellent 3.02 ERA.

The A’s are also 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings with the Bronx Bombers, and we look for that success to continue tonight.

Free Pick: Athletics +110

Willie Bee · 06-10-08, 11:25 AM

Tuesday's MLB Betting Beat

By: Peter Loshak | sbrforum.com

The Nationals are in an offensive funk and will have trouble turning it around against Pirates lefty Paul Maholm. Meanwhile Roy Oswalt and Chien-Ming Wang search for consistency.

WASHINGTON IN A PATHETIC FUNK
In case you hadn’t noticed, Washington is having a hard time winning recently. I mean a real hard time.

They just got swept, at home, by San Francisco, one of the weakest teams in the league besides the Nationals themselves. And their offensive production is truly futile; other than an anomalous 10-run outburst in the second game of a doubleheader a few days ago, the Nats are struggling to score more than once a game.

Pittsburgh starter Paul Maholm, while not exactly dominant, can be effective, particularly against weaker lineups and at home. He did get hit hard by Washington the first time he faced them this year, which was somewhat of a surprise, although Maholm is not so good that a shelling is ever out of the question.

But he should fare better in this one and Tim Redding, starting on the other side for the Nats, is reverting pretty solidly back to his mean of sub-mediocrity, so the Pirates should be able to score a few and put themselves in good position to win.

This line has moved considerably since its opening in the -130s, and if it keeps moving, as I expect it will, the value will disappear. Still, until it gets into the -150s, I still think Pittsburgh is comfortably the right side in this one.

IFFY STARTING PITCHING IN CINCY
The St. Louis-Cincinnati game is an intriguing matchup in many respects. I am not at all convinced that Reds’ starter Homer Bailey is in any way ready to be in the majors, and his last start against Philly was worse than it may look at first glance with the 2.84 ERA attached to it. Still, Bailey may be no worse off than St. Louis starter Mitchell Boggs, who was pretty good in general in the minors this year, but not necessarily ready to handle Cincinnati’s assault of lefty sluggers at Great American Park.

If this game does turn into a shootout, the Reds should have the upper hand, and the line in the -120s the betting odds are giving them is probably a little low. I’ll be waiting for line movements and lineup announcements and looking to bet some combo of overs and run lines here.

OSWALT’S STRUGGLES REFLECTED IN LINE
Few people would have predicted that a Seth McClung/Roy Oswalt showdown in June in Houston would see the Astros as only a -130s range favorite, but that’s what we’ve got here. Which Oswalt will show up for this one – the 7 IP, 3 ER one, or the 6 IP, 6 ER one? Who knows, but if Oswalt is not in decline, he needs to start proving it soon.

Still, I think Houston is a bit underrated at this line. Oswalt remains a guy who has the capability of crafting quality starts, as borderline as they may be, and McClung is having problems coming up with the stamina needed to go deep into games as a starter. McClung is probably better suited to relief work, and the Astros’ lively bats could easily get to him for a big inning at some point in this game if he weakens a bit.

The Brewers’ lineup is still about average, and unless Oswalt has some kind of injury that is contributing to his struggles, he should be able to handle them reasonably effectively. If the game is close in the late innings, Houston should have a decided edge.

WANG TRYING TO RIGHT HIS SHIP
What’s wrong with Chien-Ming Wang? No one’s quite sure, although reports say it’s purely a mechanical issue, and one similar to those he has had in the past. So he’s been in the bullpen, watching video, etc. etc. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he fixed things overnight, but until he does, I have to assume the bad outings will continue.

Oakland starter Dana Eveland has been having problems of his own lately, and while he doesn’t have near the track record of Wang, he has also only been struggling for two starts now.

So to my eyes, the starting pitching matchup is a bit of a wash, which makes Oakland’s home dog line in the +110 range look somewhat attractive. Still, you get the sense that Wang is more likely to have a good start than Eveland here, so I will probably lay off this one considering all the major uncertainties involved