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Why do you people rip on him? He's picking winners and profiting, which is the reason why we come to this site, to discuss the games and pick winners. Get your priorities straight people, venditto has his straight.Comment -
lol picking winners? less than 20 picks is BS, if he is picking winners after 100 picks then I will respect his opinionComment -
I have to say many clowns on this site, don't know the reason people break balls
no matter if you win or lose the peanut gallery always has something to say.
There was a cat on here last year senator7 he picked 4 dogs a night and won money constantly many nights 4-0 eventually he left for the same BS.
People always asked why you pick that team there gonna lose and just run their teeth he just got sick of it and split. I still don't think anyone on this forum had won as much as him on a weekly basis and always dogs even those who pick favorites.
Anyway continue to argue like little cunt's if you like but eventually the people who can pick games fade off.Comment -
7/23 Chicago Cubs moneyline -115
risking 2.5 units to win 2.17Comment -
cubs need to get the bats going.... I'll be interested to see how Soriano's return affects the club.... despite his stats, he finds ways to mess things up. They seem to roll when he is injured.Comment -
YTD: 10-4 (+8.69 units) 71.4%Comment -
1 of those losses is a tilt bet (nyy runline)
1 of those losses was a .25 action junkie bet on rockies vs mets
You will see in the next few weeks my record will continue to improve.
edit sorry for grammar i've been up 26 hours straight bare with me.Comment -
Pat you've been doing a nice job, and you've proven it by POSTING your picks. Most of the people who criticize don't post their plays everyday because they would be embarrassed by the huge OVERALL -12000 units.
People need to realize it is ok to disagree with picks and then give an explanation or numbers why you think that. But arguments like "they suck" or "you're an idiot" make you look like the idiot.
With that said, Cubs are 1-5 in the last 6 games and the bats just haven't been there. But you've been picking winners so good luck.Comment -
It's not what the cubs have done in the last 6 thats important. It's what the cubs offense(.278 team avg, which is the highest in the NL) is capable of doing vs a bad pitcher in doug davis.
I think ted lilly is a decent pitcher who should be able to throw a quality start vs this weak arizona lineup.
I got the line at -115 meaning if this hits 53% of the time I Break even, which I feel will hit at a much higher percentage with these 2 teams matching up with these 2 pitchers listed.Comment -
I'll also point out that the current dbacks lineup is batting .125 against ted lilly (3/24)Comment -
I like arizona for the sweepComment -
You're doing a great job Venditto, keep up the good work kid. Mariners are a good bet today, I unloaded on them.Comment -
7/24
Tampa Bay Rays -120
Listed Pitchers - Garza/Meche
Risking 2.5 units to win 2.08 unitsComment -
Nice work with the Cubbies!!
Good luck tomorrow!
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YTD: 11-4 (+10.86 units) 73.3%Comment -
It seems odd to me that the line is only -120.
Garza has better surface stats (3.68 ERA 1.20 WHIP 2.25K/BB vs. 4.55 ERA 1.35 WHIP 2.16 K/BB)
TB is six games under on the road but KC is five under at home.
- TB team GPA .254 vs. .238 for KC (.254 is league average)
- TB is better versus righties .755 vs. .723 OPS
- KC is much worse versus righties .689 vs. .731 OPS
- TB is worse on the road .727 vs. .761 OPS but their BAbip on the road is .283 vs. .315 at home
- KC is better at home .711 vs. .691 OPS but their BAbip at home is .315 vs. .286 on the road
- TB has the much better pen 7.15 vs. 2.46 WPA
- TB has a much better defense +9 vs. -34 for KC
- TB is a flat out much better team 8.5 vs. -5.5 WPA
I don't get it?
"Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
It's called value.Comment -
Thanks for that post which told me nothing. Should I rephrase the question? Considering all of the readily apparent and obvious stats that most people look at, doesn't it seem like the line should be HIGHER than -120? I realize you like this line and believe it has value - you are betting it afterall, so I figured that out for myself, thank you. I am merely wondering why it isn't higher, because I can't see a reason it should be -120."Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
I don't care why it isn't any higher as I'd like it as low as possible. Obviously the bookies are giving the royals (a bad team) too much credit.
correct odds imo should be like
-175
+165Comment -
I think it's because of Garza's road numbers. Then again Meche has been just as bad at home....
Regardless, I'm not touching this game because Garza is a fade pitcher IMO. 4.46 xFIP"Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
YTD: 11-5 (+8.36 units) 68.7%
Right side wrong result.
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7/25 Boston Redsox Moneyline -120
Risking 2.5 units to win 2.08 unitsComment -
YTD: 11-6 (+5.86 units) 64.7%
another rough loss
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His ERA is not indicative of how he's truly pitched; his FIP is 4.11 (not that much higher than his ERA and not a bad number) but his xFIP is 4.57, indicating he is going to pitch worse than he has going forwards. It doesn't mean I will always bet against him, and he's going to suck from here on out, but it makes him overvalued, if only slightly, IMO."Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
Yo Pat, what do you think of the Dodgers tomorrow?Comment -
think it has small value. dodgers should win 75% of the time since perez is awful.Comment -
rockies/reds under 10 +100
risking 2.5 units to win 2.5 unitsComment -
both undefeated perez 3-0 lowe 4-0
LAD have them at home
never see you play totals
what numbers you crunch for the games
SEN7 made a worksheet should pitchers true era whip for bullpens and all
other spreadsheets for offen and defen stats
no others compare they were great last year
GL on the totalComment -
YTD: 12-6 (+8.36 units) 66.6%Comment