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  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #1
    Front Page Picks (Wed., Jun 4)
    Volquez, Reds +100 on 5-inning line

    Game Time: 06/04/2008 07:05 PM -
    By: Peter Loshak | sbrforum.com

    Edinson Volquez gives the Reds the advantage on the starting pitcher front in their game against Brett Myers and the Philadelphia Phillies. Cash Cincinnati on the 5-inning line.

    On Wednesday in MLB, I think there will be a pretty significant starting pitching disparity in the Cincinnati/Philadelphia game featuring Edinson Volquez against Brett Myers, and as such I will be backing the Reds in this one. But for a variety of reasons, I’m going to be taking the 5-inning line instead of the full game line of the Reds.

    Myers is having a rough going on the mound this year. Even when he winds up with a good start in the stat line, it is still usually one where he struggled. Some of his peripheral stats are decent, but in general he is proving to be consistently hittable, and against a team loaded with lefty power hitters as the Reds are he is likely to be especially vulnerable to the long ball.

    Myers hasn’t given up a home run in three straight starts now, but I think that streak will end today with a bit of a thud, as I expect him to yield at least two to Cincy’s power bats. Myers’ last start where he reached double digits in strikeouts against the lively Florida Marlins lineup was impressive, but he was also pitching with a big lead in that game, which can make things easier on a struggling starter. This game does not figure to unfold that way, and I think Myers will be vulnerable to a big inning in the early part of the game.

    Reds’ starter Volquez has been truly impressive in his consistent excellence this year. He figured out how to be successful in the majors in a big way, and so far this year in his 11 starts he has not given up more than two runs in any of them. That is remarkable, and he has done it against some quality offenses while pitching in a hitter-friendly home park. The Phillies have some big bats in their lineup, but if Volquez’ form holds, he should be able to handle them as well.

    I am going with the 5-inning line here however because Volquez does not go particularly deep into games, usually giving six innings. And if that happens here today, three innings of Phillie bats facing the Reds’ bullpen is an idea that scares me. So I am willing to take lesser odds and go with the 5-inning line, and not have to worry about that. If the Reds come out of the fifth inning with only a small lead, having money on them to win the whole thing will be an uncomfortable spot to be in.

    The betting odds across the market have this line at about +100, which is only a modest reduction from the full game line. So I will go with the Reds 5-innings +100 on Wednesday.
  • SBR Lou
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 08-02-07
    • 37863

    #2
    Good morning sir.

    I am on ATL 1st 5.
    Comment
    • Willie Bee
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-14-06
      • 15726

      #3
      Philadelphia Phillies -115 to slow down Volquez, Reds

      Game Time: 06/04/2008 07:05 PM -
      By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

      Edinson Volquez is pitching like a Cy Young candidate, but Brett Myers is coming off of possibly his best start of the season and he will only get better.

      Edinson Volquez of the Cincinnati Reds has probably been the best pitcher in the National League this season, but it is hard to pass up on the Philadelphia Phillies at this cheap price at home.

      After all, the Phillies are the hottest team in the league having won eight of the last nine games overall, and they have also won seven of their last eight home games to improve to 20-12 in this stadium. Conversely, the Reds are still under .500 overall at 28-31 and they are a woeful 9-21 on the road.

      Philadelphia starter Brett Myers has burned a lot of money in the early going as the Phils have tried to transform him back into a starter after he served as their closer last season. However, he looks to have finally turned the corner with two quality starts in his last three outings, and he has season highs in innings (8) and strikeouts (11) in his last start. Remember that Myers had a fine rookie season as a starter, and he was projected to be the Phillies’ number two starter this season after Cole Hamels, so he should only get better as the season goes on.

      Now there is no doubt that Volquez has been dominant, with a league leading 1.46 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with an amazing 83 strikeouts in 68 innings. The problem here is that he does not figure to get much run support if Myers’ last start was not a mirage, so we see a tight low-scoring game until the late innings here. Then, we feel that the pendulum will swing strongly in favor of the Phillies one the bullpens get involved, as Philadelphia now leads the Major Leagues with a 2.68 pen ERA.

      This makes the Phillies one of our Bullpen System plays today, and they system went 6-2 last night and averaged +97 units the last three seasons.

      Free Pick: Phillies -115
      Comment
      • Willie Bee
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-14-06
        • 15726

        #4
        Lee, Indians -142 at Texas Rangers

        Game Time: 06/04/2008 08:05 PM -
        By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

        Cliff Lee has been one of the most consistent starters in the majors this season, and behind his left arm the Cleveland Indians get back in the win column at the Texas Rangers.

        The Tribe looks to get back on the winning track behind Cliff Lee when they take on the Texas Rangers in Arlington this evening.

        Lee has been a model of consistency on the road this season where he is 5-1 with a 1.96 ERA. He's also cashed in 14 of his last 19 team starts during his good month of June. Cleveland has won eight of the southpaw's 10 starts in 2008, including a 5-2 Indians win on May 24 against this Texas team.

        With that we'll back the better team and the better arm here tonight.

        Free Pick: Indians -142
        Comment
        • Willie Bee
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 02-14-06
          • 15726

          #5
          Oswalt, Houston Astros -117 at Pittsburgh Pirates

          Game Time: 06/04/2008 07:05 PM -
          By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

          Houston's Roy Oswalt is having a substandard season, but he's still the better choice over Pittsburgh's Zach Duke when the Astros take on the Pirates at PNC Park.

          The Astros were able to snap a five-game losing streak on Tuesday thanks to a solid pitching performance. The offense however was held in check yet again as they have scored two runs or fewer in six straight games.

          The offense was red hot prior to that and tonight could very well be the night that it comes back to life. Even with that recent skid, Houston is three games over .500 and is very well in the race for the Wild Card even though the season is young.

          Pittsburgh lost for the 12th time in their last 20 games after coming off a six-game winning streak which was the best run of the season. Offensively this team has improved dramatically but coming off a goose egg last night and facing tonight’s starter is going to keep it down once again. The bullpen has been the strength as the starting pitching has been hammered pretty hard, posting a 5.56 ERA over its last 10 games. Because of that, the bullpen has seen extensive innings and will eventually get burned out.

          The starter referenced to earlier was Roy Oswalt. It has been a disappointing season for Oswalt who has a 5.45 ERA on the season. He started slow with three straight non-quality starts before putting together six straight quality outings. His last two starts are ones to forget but he is that top tiered pitcher who is in a play on situation based on those two poor performances. Add to that his domination of the Pirates as he is 11-5 with a 2.45 ERA and in 21 starts. This includes six straight starts of one run or fewer allowed.

          Zach Duke has been hot and cold this season and the cold seems to be taking over. His ERA sits at 4.41 which is ok for a middle of the road starter but it is impossible to look past his 1.59 WHIP which is third worst in the National League among qualified starters. That ratio juts out to 1.68 in his five home starts where the Pirates are 2-3 on the season.

          Houston is hitting .294 on the season against left-handed starters while Duke is 0-3 with a 4.08 ERA in six career starts against the Astros. Play Houston for 1½ units.

          Free Pick: Astros -117
          Comment
          • Willie Bee
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 02-14-06
            • 15726

            #6
            Chicago White Sox -165 vs. Royals

            Game Time: 06/04/2008 08:10 PM -
            By: Scott Spreitzer | phoenixsports.com

            John Danks has been an underrated pitcher this year, and with his offense waking up tonight, look for Danks and the Chicago White Sox to cash versus the Kansas City Royals.

            I'm laying the price with the White Sox at home in Chicago against the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday.

            Ozzie Guillen blew a gasket and the White Sox have responded without wasting any time. Of course, it doesn't hurt that they're playing the lowly Royals. But the bats exploded on Tuesday and there will be no letting up against KC's Luke Hochevar.

            The righty has given up 13 earned runs in his last 17 1/3 innings of work, and he's 1-3 on the road this season with a hefty 6.35 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. In his last three starts, it wouldn't have mattered if he threw well or not. The Royals have been horrible at the plate, and they've lost Hochevar's last three outings by a combined score of 18-to-1!

            With the way Chicago lefty John Danks has been pitching, I was surprised this line opened less than -190. Danks has allowed just 12 earned runs and 62 base runners in his last nine starts, sporting a 2.00 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in the process.

            Ozzie's rant and KC's ineptitude produces a second straight win for the ChiSox.

            Free Pick: White Sox -165
            Comment
            • Willie Bee
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-14-06
              • 15726

              #7
              St. Louis Cardinals -120 at Nationals

              Game Time: 06/04/2008 07:05 PM -
              By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

              The Nationals are hurting big time right now with the latest injury news pushing Ryan Zimmerman to the DL. Side with the St. Louis Cardinals in DC on the road in Washington.

              Our Wednesday night MLB selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals on the road in the nation's capital over the Washington Nationals.

              It's pretty bad when almost your entire starting infield (and part of your starting outfield) is on the DL and you didn't have a very potent lineup to begin with! That is exactly what has happened to the Nats. Let's start with the man who's supposed to be behind the plate.

              Paul Lo Duca began the season on the DL, then came off and played a couple of games only to go back on with a hand injury. Nick Johnson beat out Dmitri Young for the starting 1B job and was looking forward to coming back strong this season after missing all of 2007, but he now finds himself also on the DL with a wrist problem.

              Starting 2B Ronnie Belliard is out with a calf injury, and the latest infield setback is the worst as starting 3B and team leader Ryan Zimmerman just went on the DL with a bad shoulder and is trying to rehab it instead of having what would likely be season-ending surgery at this time. No telling how long he will be out.

              Add to these the losses of regular outfielder Austin Kearns and closer Chad Cordero, and you have a seriously depleted lineup and defense.

              St. Louis has injuries too, but almost all of them are pitching related and the Cards have a lot of depth there and it's shown so far this season. Both starters tonight, Todd Wellemeyer (Cards) and John Lannan (Nats), have been outstanding lately, but only one is getting run support as the Cardinals are 7-5 in Wellemeyer's starts and the Nats 4-7 in Lannan's.

              I certainly can't see that trend changing tonight. Take St. Louis.

              Free Pick: Cardinals -120
              Comment
              • Willie Bee
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 02-14-06
                • 15726

                #8
                Volquez, Reds +112 at Phillies

                Game Time: 06/04/2008 07:05 PM -
                By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

                This is solid value on the Reds' Edinson Volquez, especially against an inconsistent Brett Myers for the Phillies. Cash Cincinnati Wednesday night on the road at Philadelphia.

                Edinson Volquez (7-2, 1.46 ERA) has been one of the Reds' most consistent hurlers this season, and has only allowed more than one earned run in a game twice during his current campaign.

                Brett Myers (3-6, 5.52 ERA) will return fire for the Phillies. The righty hurler is operating at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum compared to his Reds pitching opponent, as is evident by having allowed 75 hits in 63.1 innings of work this year. Needless to say, this pitching matchup very much favors the Reds, making them the right side tonight at a value price.

                Final Notes & Key Trends: The Phillies are 0-7 in Myers' last seven starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Reds are 5-0 in Volquez' last five starts against a team with a winning record. Play on Cincinnati.

                Free Pick: Reds +112
                Comment
                • Willie Bee
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 02-14-06
                  • 15726

                  #9
                  Blue Jays +120 to upset NY Yanks

                  Game Time: 06/04/2008 07:05 PM -
                  By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

                  Jesse Litsch has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball at 7-1, and he has tossed 16 scoreless innings in his last two starts. Throw in the better bullpen and the Jays as dogs are the play.

                  Jesse Litsch of the Toronto Blue Jays has been surprisingly effective in this starter’s role this season, while Mike Mussina of the New York Yankees has reverted back to his bad habits lately.

                  Litsch is a shocking 7-1 with a nice 3.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 65 innings overall, and he has been downright unhittable over his last three starts, with a 0.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP! He is working on a nice streak of 16 scoreless innings over his last two appearances, and he has allowed three runs or less in six straight starts. He also pitched very well in his only career outing at Yankee Stadium last season, allowing just one run and five hits in 7.2 innings.

                  Mussina appeared to have gotten himself straightened out for the Yankees, but he suddenly imploded in a start vs. the Baltimore Orioles two weeks ago, and the Moose now has a 5.40 ERA with a very high 1.89 WHIP over his last three starts. Also, Toronto has now has a huge edge in the bullpen, as the Jays lead the American League with a 2.85 pen ERA while we feel that the Yankees bullpen has been severely weakened with the move of Joba Chamberlain to the starting rotation.

                  Finally, the Blue Jays are 9-3 in their last 12 games overall and 10-4 in their last 14 road games, and we look for them to build on both of those streaks tonight.

                  Free Pick: Blue Jays +120
                  Comment
                  • Willie Bee
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-14-06
                    • 15726

                    #10
                    White Sox -165 vs Kansas City Royals

                    Game Time: 06/04/2008 08:10 PM -
                    By: Brad Diamond | playbook.com

                    After manager Ozzie Gullien's latest tirade, White Sox bats woke up last night with four home runs. Look for more of the same tonight when Chicago hosts the Kansas City Royals.

                    The Kansas City Royals are clearly a faltering baseball team and they go into a negative venue this evening out in Chicago against the White Sox.

                    In their series, the Sox have out-played K.C. 39-14 at home in Chicago. In addition, the ChiSox are 7-2 their last nine versus right-handed pitchers, and overall 8 of 11 at home most recently.

                    With Kansas City sagging at 3-13, we can’t help supporting the first place club in the AL Central.

                    Free Pick: White Sox -165
                    Comment
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