My attempt to make money on baseball

[delpiero7]

Hi all,

I've been browsing these forums for well over a year now, but only joined at the end of last year. I mostly bet tennis and soccer, but do enjoy the occassional bet on the baseball. Being in England, it is usually very difficult to follow all the evening games, as 7pm ET is midnight in the UK. Not a problem staying up during my days as a student, but now that I have a 9-5(ish) job, being able to follow games live results in severe sleep deprivation!

However, I have decided to try and have a go at making some money on baseball. Unless stated, all plays are risking one unit - which at the moment is £25 (approx $40).

So, for tonight:

Florida Marlins to beat Chicago Cubs
Nolasco has been solid all season for the Marlins, especially at home where he has only allowed 8 ER in 33.2 innings. If he'd recieved better run support, his record would be better than the 3-0 it currently stands at. For the Cubs, despite a very good outing in his last road game (1 ER in 7 innings), Dempster has had his struggles on the road this season, allowing 17 ER in 18.2 innings. Hopefully Nolasco will be able to work another solid outing at home, and the bats give him the run support he has failed to get so far for a Marlins W.

Texas Rangers to beat Kansas City Royals
Alexi Ogando has been nothing short of sensational for the Rangers in his first season as a starter, putting up numbers that every staff ace would be proud of, never mind the number 5 starter! He's gone at least 6 innings in each of his starts, and allowed one run or less in five of his seven starts so far. The only team that he has been roughed up by are the Yankees, who took him for 5 runs in 6.1 IP with 3 homers. I think it's fair to say that the Royals' bats don't quite match up to those of the Yanks. Also, Royals have a guy making his big league debut on the mound. Whilst he has impressive AAA numbers, facing the AL Champs and duelling against Ogando will be a mighty tough prospect.

Los Angeles Angels to beat Seattle Mariners
The most recent trends seem to point away from an Angels win. They got shut down by the A's last night in a humbling 14-0 beatdown, and Jered Weaver has lost his last 3 starts after appearing to be unhittable in his first 6 games of the season. However, it must be considered that he was playing on the back of a virus in his loss to Boston (whose bats were just beginning to get out of their slumber), and the Indians (to whom he suffered his second loss) have been hitting everyone hard this season. The 3rd loss was to a Rangers team that have a solid 16-9 home record this year. I find it hard to believe that a pitcher who went 6-0 with an ERA < 1.00 suddenly can't win games for his team. Whilst Jason Vargas has been solid all season for the Mariners, I trust Weaver to find his form against a weak Seattle batting lineup.

Cleveland Indians to beat Chicago White Sox
No essay here. Indians bats have been hot all season. Justin Masterson has been on the money. Peavy may well be a 3x All-Star, but coming back from an arm injury, he hasn't been stellar in his rehab starts in the minors, and allowed 4 ER in 6 innings in his first big league appearance this season. Indians at plus money? Yes please!

Thoughts?

[firehoyt]

Yes I have a comment. Thank y'all Brits for Top Gear. It's by far the best show on TV (the British version, not the US) oh and BOL with your plays. I'm on the Indians and Rangers as well

[ParlayJunkie]

I'm liking the plays. GL.

[thebestthereis]

texas at only -118 here is as big of joke line as there has been in a long while. forget about public opinion, the current stats couldn't be worse for kc and a pitcher that has zero starts. make absolutely no sense. -140 should be the line.

[mikey360]

Good luck Delpiero7, i'm from the UK too and know what you mean about keeping up with the late games, though watching day games is nice with MLB, something we rarely get with other US Sports.

Also i'm on all those plays except Cleveland.

[delpiero7]

Horrible night, only Texas managed to win. Hopefully I'll fare slightly better tonight.

1-3, -2.15 units

[delpiero7]

Got 3 early plays for today, trying to bounce back after a shocker last night.

Cincinnati Reds RL over Pittsburgh Pirates
Johnny Cueto has been dominant since his return from injury this season. He is 2-0 and yet at allow an earned run. For the Pirates, James McDonald has only had one quality start on the road this season, against the Padres. Overall, he is 3-1 on the road this season, with an ERA of 9.41. He has already faced the Reds at the Great American Ballpark this season, giving up 6 ER in 4.1 innings.

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets - over 7.5 runs
This is more of a gut instinct rather than one that can be backed purely by stats, I’ll get the worrying stat out of the way first though – Livan Hernandez owns a 1.96 ERA in his last 6 starts vs the Mets. However, this season he has struggled on the road, going 0-3 in 4 starts, and allowing a minimum of 4 earned runs in each start. Gee has been solid without being stellar for the Mets. Backing the over may not be a great idea taking the 2 batting lineups into mind, but I feel it’s gonna happen tonight.

Houston Astros @ St Louis Cardinals – over 8 runs
Despite having 5 wins under his belt, Kyle McClellan has been slightly more vunerable of late, allowing at least 4 earned runs in 3 of his past 4 starts, not going more than 6 innings in any of those games. He has also faced the Astros this season (on the road), where he allowed 5 runs in 5.2 innings. Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday may well be missing for the Cards, but closer viewing shows that Berkman is 4 for his last 30, and Holliday is hitless in his last 13 ABs. Despite these recent slumps, St Louis are among the league leader in runs, RBIs and batting average over the past seven days. For the Astros, Jamie Happ has given up at least 2 earned runs in all but 1 game this season (against the anemic Mets), and has a road ERA of over 8.

Contemplating the under in the Angels/Mariners game, but still looking into it.

[face]

I don't think mets or nationals are hitting so great and citi field is really big, so not a lot of home runs there, but good luck with the over 7.5.

[delpiero7]

I don't think mets or nationals are hitting so great and citi field is really big, so not a lot of home runs there, but good luck with the over 7.5.

You may be right, but as I said, Livan's stats against the Mets, as well as the relatively weak batting lineups point away from the over in this game. However, I'm just acting on a hunch here, seeing as my 'scientific' approach yesterday failed so spectacularly!

[drfunkmaster]

Got 3 early plays for today, trying to bounce back after a shocker last night. Cincinnati Reds RL over Pittsburgh Pirates Johnny Cueto has been dominant since his return from injury this season. He is 2-0 and yet at allow an earned run. For the Pirates, James McDonald has only had one quality start on the road this season, against the Padres. Overall, he is 3-1 on the road this season, with an ERA of 9.41. He has already faced the Reds at the Great American Ballpark this season, giving up 6 ER in 4.1 innings. Washington Nationals @ New York Mets - over 7.5 runs This is more of a gut instinct rather than one that can be backed purely by stats, I’ll get the worrying stat out of the way first though – Livan Hernandez owns a 1.96 ERA in his last 6 starts vs the Mets. However, this season he has struggled on the road, going 0-3 in 4 starts, and allowing a minimum of 4 earned runs in each start. Gee has been solid without being stellar for the Mets. Backing the over may not be a great idea taking the 2 batting lineups into mind, but I feel it’s gonna happen tonight. Houston Astros @ St Louis Cardinals – over 8 runs Despite having 5 wins under his belt, Kyle McClellan has been slightly more vunerable of late, allowing at least 4 earned runs in 3 of his past 4 starts, not going more than 6 innings in any of those games. He has also faced the Astros this season (on the road), where he allowed 5 runs in 5.2 innings. Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday may well be missing for the Cards, but closer viewing shows that Berkman is 4 for his last 30, and Holliday is hitless in his last 13 ABs. Despite these recent slumps, St Louis are among the league leader in runs, RBIs and batting average over the past seven days. For the Astros, Jamie Happ has given up at least 2 earned runs in all but 1 game this season (against the anemic Mets), and has a road ERA of over 8. Contemplating the under in the Angels/Mariners game, but still looking into it.

lets cash these!! good luck

[JR007]

Be careful with run-lines.......have to utilize them to your advantage

[zoso11871]

texas at only -118 here is as big of joke line as there has been in a long while. forget about public opinion, the current stats couldn't be worse for kc and a pitcher that has zero starts. make absolutely no sense. -140 should be the line.

Thinking the same thing.

[delpiero7]

A remarkable 0-3 yesterday.

An amazing 1-6 start. I will look over the card for the next 2 days, but then taking a week off to concentrate on the French Open tennis. Hopefully my picks will be able to take a turn for the better. If not, this may well turn into the ultimate fade thread!

1-6, -5.15 units