PittVipers WEDNESDAY - Two Picks, Two Write-ups, One Spreadsheet

Pittviper Sports · 05-11-11, 05:38 PM

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays +116

Game Date: 5/11/2011
Game Time: 7:05 PM
Picking: Full Game

Pick Write-Up

ROT# 974 - 7:05pm - Toronto Blue Jays +116

Risk 2 units to win 2.32 units

Expected Starting Pitchers:
*both starting pitchers must start for this to be an official bet*
Boston Red Sox: John Lackey (2-4, 7.16 ERA)
Toronto Blue Jays: Jesse Litsch (3-2, 4.04 ERA)

Public Betting Percentage: 54% of the public is on Toronto; 46% of the public is on Boston
My Ranking: Toronto has 55.16% chance of winning; Boston has a 44.84% chance of winning.

The (17-19) Boston Red Sox will face off at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, in what is game two of a three game series with the (16-20) Blue Jays. Boston is 6-10 on the road while Toronto is 8-8 at home this season. In last night’s matchup between these two teams, both starting pitchers got lit-up and the result was 7-6 Toronto win in extra innings.

John Lackey (2-4, 7.16 ERA) gets the start for the Boston Red Sox tonight. Through six starts, Lackey has an ERA of 7.16, a WHIP of 1.74; giving up 44 hits, 13 walks and 26 earned runs in just 32 innings of work. Opposing batters are hitting .317 against Lackey this season, leading to him pitching a minimum of six innings in just half of his starts. In all three of those starts, in which he was pulled before the 6th inning, he has given up between 6+ runs. This is his 2nd season as a Red Sox; last year he had an ERA of 4.4, WHIP of 1.42 and BAA of .277. In his most recent start, Lackey gave up 10 hits, 3 walks, 8 runs and striking out just one batter in four innings of work. When asked about the start catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (that is not a typo haha) said "His curveball had good bite, he just wasn't able to get a first strike when we needed it. When the count is 2-1, 3-1, he's usually able to do that. But he's not throwing 95 [mph], so you can't just rely on the fastball every time. We just weren't able to get back into counts." Lackey is 3-3, with a 3.82 ERA lifetime at the Rogers Centre.

Jesse Litsch (3-2, 4.04 ERA) gets the start for the Blue Jays tonight. Through six starts, Litsch has an ERA of 4.04, WHIP of 1.37 and BAA of .255; he has held righties to a .148 average this season. He has fared better at home, with a 2.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and BAA of .217. He’s been very consistent this season as he’s pitched at least six innings in five of his six starts, including the last four straight; and has yet to give up 10+ hits/walks in a single start, while Lackey has given up 10+ hits/walks in three of his six starts. Litsch also set a career high with nine strikeouts in his last start against Detroit picking up his third victory of the season after allowing just one run on four hits. Blue Jays manager John Farrell commented after that game, talking about Litsch and their team as one unit saying "We're getting extended outings on a more consistent basis. Any time you point to the success of a rotation it probably reflects the consistency of how you play as a team. I like to think that we're getting more of those types of performances."

The Boston Red Sox offense is batting a combined .255 this season overall, .233 on the road and .289 in their last ten games. The Toronto Blue Jays offense is batting a combined .244 this season overall, .250 at home and .228 in their last ten starts. Versus Right-handed pitchers, Boston is batting .253 this season overall, .237 on the road and .283 in their last ten games. Versus Right-handed pitchers, Toronto is batting .231 this season overall, .235 at home and .217 in their last ten games. This can be deceptive though. Despite Boston’s batting average advantage, it is important to note that Toronto is a power hitting team; which leads to more runs (which is what really matters) but a lower batting average. Boston’s offense has averaged 3.98 runs per game overall, 3.88 on the road and 4.39 in their past ten; while Torontos offense has averaged 4.75 runs per game overall, 5.30 at home and 6.31 in their past ten (yes averaging 6.31 runs in their last ten with a batting just .228). Toronto is very good at being patient, getting base runners and then jacking the ball deep; and can turn one run deficit into a one run lead in the blink of an eye. I do live in Toronto but please know that this is NOT a homer play, I don’t bet with my heart. You will see me fade this Toronto team many times this season, but they do often have value like tonight. They should be able to hit a couple homeruns off big John Lackey, who in three lifetime games versus Jose Bautista has allowed him to hit two home runs.

Another thing to note is that the Toronto Blue Jays had been hit with some injury problems early on this season but are fully healthy now with Adam Lind being the only main exception. The Red Sox will be without Marco Scutaro tonight, due to injury a few nights ago, and the hot hitting Jed Lowrie (.321 batting average this season) will get the night off to rest as he is dealing with an illness that started last night. Lowrie has the best batting average of any Red Sox player this season.

The bullpen advantage goes to Toronto who are sporting an ERA of 2.73 and WHIP of 1.10 compared to Boston’s bullpen ERA of 4.49 and WHIP of 1.26. Boston Relief pitchers Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler were both injured a week ago and put on the bullpens DL, weakening the bullpen. On top of this Tim Wakefield and Alfredo Aceves were used to pitch a combined complete game Friday, and after the five-hour rain-delayed affair last week, the bullpen has yet to catch its breath, making John Lackey's start on Wednesday all the more important; knowing their bullpen is very thin. This should mean more fastball strikes from Lackey and less curveball dancing around the plate, as he tries to keep his pitch count down, which typically would mean more hits for the Blue Jays.

PittVipers Final Prediction
Gary Darling is umpiring tonight’s game and he’s very much so a pitchers umpire, meaning his strike zone is very wide, so I don’t expect this to be a scoring fest like in last night’s game. However, with a thin bullpen and some popping bats the Blue Jays will be able to muster up some runs versus Lackey and company and I expect another solid, consistent performance from both Jesse Litsch and this Blue Jays bullpen.

Blue Jays 5 – Redsox 2