Just another system

[asdfghasdfgh]

I've always been about numbers and stats over gut feeling picks and am just getting started with capping MLB this year. I've got a pretty rudimentary system in the works and I want to document it as I tweak it. It's done pretty well for the early MLB season (~55% with small favorites and dogs), but this being my first MLB season actually capping games and the small sample size, it could be an anomaly.

Anyways, on to the picks. Keep in mind I'm just monitoring these picks until I have a larger sample size to decide whether to tail or fade the system. All picks are on the moneyline unless otherwise noted.

May 4, 2011 picks:

Dodgers -116 (vs. Cubs) (not counting this as I'm posting this after the game has started. The game stands 0-0 in the top of the 5th.)
Pirates +118 (@ Padres)
Nationals +133 (@ Phillies)
Angels +162 (@ Red Sox)
Giants -139 (@ Mets)
Royals -104 (vs. Orioles)
Marlins +179 (@ Cardinals)
Rockies -132 (@ Diamondbacks)
Athletics -145 (vs. Indians)
Mariners -116 (vs. Rangers)
Brewers +122 (@ Braves)
Brewers +163 (@ Braves)

A lot of picks, I know. In this tracking stage of this system, I will be tracking favorites as "to win 1 unit" and tracking 1 unit on dogs. Let's see how long I keep at this. Good luck to all.

[asdfghasdfgh]

May 4, 2011 picks:

Dodgers -116 (vs. Cubs) (not counting this as I'm posting this after the game started. The game stands 0-0 in the top of the 5th.)
Pirates +118 (@ Padres)
Nationals +133 (@ Phillies)
Angels +162 (@ Red Sox)
Giants -139 (@ Mets)
Royals -104 (vs. Orioles)
Marlins +179 (@ Cardinals)
Rockies -132 (@ Diamondbacks)
Athletics -145 (vs. Indians)
Mariners -116 (vs. Rangers)
Brewers +122 (@ Braves)
Brewers +163 (@ Braves)

YTD: 6-5, 2.39 units

Back later today with system plays. Gotta catch some sleep after that long ass Sox game.

[asdfghasdfgh]

May 5, 2011 picks:

Mets +100 (vs. Giants)
Blue Jays +145 (@ Rays)
Red Sox RL +120 (vs. Angels)
Marlins -136 (@ Cardinals)
Indians +164 (@ Athletics)
Brewers +120 (@ Braves)
Rockies +101 (@ Diamondbacks)

[asdfghasdfgh]

May 5, 2011 picks:

Mets +100 (vs. Giants)
Blue Jays +145 (@ Rays)
Red Sox RL +120 (vs. Angels)
Marlins -136 (@ Cardinals)
Indians +164 (@ Athletics)
Brewers +120 (@ Braves)
Rockies +101 (@ Diamondbacks)

Bad day yesterday. Definitely misread Lackey as Lester yesterday. I should've realized the odds for a Lester RL against the Angels at +120 was too good to be true. Numbers for Lackey instead of Lester would've been a no play for the system.

May 5th: 2-5, -2.72 units
YTD: 7-10, -0.33 units

May 6th, 2011 picks:
Cubs -120 (vs. Reds)
Pirates -115 (vs. Astros)
Blue Jays -114 (vs. Tigers)
Rays +106 (@ Orioles)*
Mets -125 (vs. Dodgers)
Athletics -124 (@ Royals)*
Brewers +142 (@ Cardinals)*
Indians -113 (@ Angels)
Rockies +101 (@ Giants)

Plays with asterisks are strong system plays and favorites will be tracked as "to win 2 units" and underdogs will be tracked as "risking 2 units".

[asdfghasdfgh]

May 6th, 2011 picks:
Cubs -120 (vs. Reds)
Pirates -115 (vs. Astros)
Blue Jays -114 (vs. Tigers)
Rays +106 (@ Orioles)*
Mets -125 (vs. Dodgers)
Athletics -124 (@ Royals)*
Brewers +142 (@ Cardinals)*
Indians -113 (@ Angels)
Rockies +101 (@ Giants)

Plays with asterisks are strong system plays and favorites will be tracked as "to win 2 units" and underdogs will be tracked as "risking 2 units".

Upgrading Cubs to a strong system play. Love the line movement.

[asdfghasdfgh]

May 6th, 2011 picks:
Cubs -120 (vs. Reds)*
Pirates -115 (vs. Astros)
Blue Jays -114 (vs. Tigers)
Rays +106 (@ Orioles)*
Mets -125 (vs. Dodgers)
Athletics -124 (@ Royals)*
Brewers +142 (@ Cardinals)*
Indians -113 (@ Angels)
Rockies +101 (@ Giants)

May 6th: 4-5, -0.21 units
YTD: 11-15, -0.54 units

Got a little cute with the Cubs yesterday. Not today.

May 7th, 2011 picks:

Orioles -105 (vs. Rays)*
Blue Jays +104 (vs. Tigers)
Mets -122 (vs. Dodgers) Line movement is fishy. Scratching this play.
Royals +100 (vs. Athletics)*