Week 3 balance +11.08 units 19-15 overall.

[LGHT]

Week 2 was tough. Favs where not hitting and good pitchers where loosing to struggling pitchers who seem to have found their groove. Teems like Seattle who couldn't win a game went 5-1 on the road beating good teams.

I have and always will be a capper that's focused on "stats". I do consider injury, weather, umps, etc, but I don't make decisions based on team that are due for a win because they have been struggling or teams that are "hot". For me it's just a part of the roller coaster and although my overall pick count was below 500 I still managed to bank 4 plus units for the week so it was a good week.

That's the one good thing about my betting system and parlays. You only have to hit 1 in 4 to make money so there is a lot of room for error. Luckily I hit both of my parlays on Wed keeping me in the green.


Week 1 balance 7.08
4-25 Loss -1
4-26 Loss -1
4-27 WINx2 + 11.22
4-28 Loss -1
4-29 Loss -1
4-30 Loss -1
5-1 Loss -1
Total for week 2 +11.08

[LGHT]

5-2 Plays

Angels -107
Cin RL +115
Atl -150

1* to win 5.93

[doesnotcompute]

Hey LGHT,

I've been tracking your parlays thus far this season. I'm simply amazed you managed to hit so many in such a short time and relatively few plays. Being a straight player, I never touch parlays, but seeing your success has made me reconsider.

Have you had the success to stay afloat and keep going in past seasons? Mathematically-wise, it makes perfect sense that you only have to hit one out of 4-6 to break even based on 2-4 gamers. It's just picking so many winner that is tough to grind out in the long run.

I'll be beginning mlb soon with a combination of strategies, and considering parlays such as yours.

[LGHT]

Well to be honest I used to make money back in the old days on Overs exclusively when bud was willing to look the other way. I mean the average games total was around 12-14 with games hitting 20 plus weekly. The overs where high at around 9-10, but you could close your eyes and pick an AL over and have a good chance to win. It was this type of consistent hitting that made me realize I could and would make a TON of money playing parlays since the payoff was so much more. I went from making 20 units a week on average on sides to 40-80 units a week with parlays. Even if I didn't hit them all I only had to hit a couple to stay afloat and if I hit around 50% on my parlays I could easily make a killing.

After the rules changed I stop playing for a few years, but eventually started playing again and although I didn't have the same type of consistency it was the 1 parlay a day plan that always yielded consistent small profits for me.

I think it's more because I'm a stat player that rarely plays dogs so I don't get much value out of my plays unless I parlay them. As a result it's the parlays that seem to have given me a slight edge over the books.

Most of the side players don't play parlays because they don't think they are "consistent" enough, but that's the reason I play parlays. I don't think i'm the best capper by any means, but I know I should be able to hit at least 1 parlay 4-6 tries. If I can't then I shouldn't be playing.

[doesnotcompute]

Wow, long time ago. The market has changed a lot, and based on what your said, I doubt the current market allows for such numbers to continuously hit as it is more efficient. That being said don't let me rain on your parade please continue and I wish you bol.

Testing the waters before going in with a bigger br. I wonder how big greek limits are by phone. Their online limits are pretty low.

[LGHT]

Yeah it seems like a lifetime ago. It's amazing how tight the lines are now and how much harder it is to pick winners without the juice. GL on the dodgers that should be an easy win.

[LGHT]

Total from week 2 +11.08 20-16 Overall

5/2 Play LOSS -1
Total 10.08 units

NYY RL even
CIN RL +120
KC/BAL O 9 -105
1 unit to win 7.59

NYY -165
CIN -184
KC/BAL O 9 -105
BOS -151

.5 to win 3.52

[doesnotcompute]

Here's my card for the day. Feeling pretty confident about two teams, hence the parlay.

[LGHT]

Good luck on the Parlays. I opted to do a 3 team and RL 2 of the 3 plays and a 4 team and not RL any of them. If you look at the payouts both parlays are almost the same. So if 1 team doesn't cover the RL I'm still hopefully going to double my payout for the day.

Now if they BOTH win I will have risked 1.5 units to win 11.

If you look at your plays Philly is a make or break game since you have 10* on the side .5* on the 4 team and 1* on the 2 team. If that 1 game doesn't pull through your out 11.5*. Even if all 3 of your other bets hit your still only making 6* or about half of what you loss.

I think Phi will get them today because they are great at home, but Hernandez is probably the best pitcher for WA and he's already beat Phi once this year pitching 6.2 inning and only giving up 1 earned run. However they where not in Philly.

GL with the play!

[mp5070]

I will take Nationals +185

[LGHT]

I will take Nationals +185

I think it has some value at +185, but I still think Philly wins this one in a close game 4-1.

[LGHT]

I wish I would have taken my own advice and just played the Phillies!! I can't believe I not only called Philly, but hit the exact score, then I go and make 2 horrible plays on NYY and CIN!

[LGHT]

Horrible day yesterday with both NYY and CIN loosing games that they should have won. The hump day has been my most successful day by far going 4-1.

Cin/Hou O 9 +100
Mil/Atl O 7 game 2 -125

FL / SL O 7.5 -110

1* to win 5.87


Cin/Hou O 9 +100
Mil/Atl O 7 game 2 -125

FL / SL O 7.5 -110

SF -148

.5* to win 5.26


5/2 Play LOSS -1
5/3 Play LOSS -1.5
Total 8.58 units

[doesnotcompute]

And that's the Kelly in action! Philly was the only winning play but since it was so big, ended up with + 4u.

Not liking any games today, so very small percentages on plays.

[doesnotcompute]

2-1 so far, rain delaying the boston play. LGHT, have you considered progressive parlays? I believe bookmaker offers them. A 4 teamer will still payout in the event only 3 win, etc. The odds also downgrade but at least the whole card isn't graded as a loss.

[doesnotcompute]

2-1 so far, rain delaying the boston play. LGHT, have you considered progressive parlays? I believe bookmaker offers them. A 4 teamer will still payout in the event only 3 win, etc. The odds also downgrade but at least the whole card isn't graded as a loss.

Went 2-2 for .52 units. Strange I cannot find the consolation/progressive parlays on bookmaker. I know they used to offer them about two years ago as I remember wanting to try them out. Perhaps they were losing too much on them?

Really liking one game today, will wait for a better value before posting.

[LGHT]

When some loose some. 3-1 yesterday, but the 1 was in both plays so it was a loosing day going -1.5 units. I don't bother with any progressive or anything fancy, I just play the same parlay day in and day out.

I knew my Cin/Hou was in trouble when I noticed the line dip from -9 to -8.5 and the under still got hammered until it reached -125. However statistically it panned out as an over for me. I never really liked those light then early next day starts because it always seems like the players are still tired, but the pitchers are ready to throw.

[LGHT]

AZ/COL U 9 -110
FL -140
KC -114


5/2 LOSS -1
5/3 LOSS -1.5
5/4 LOSS
Total 7.08 units

[doesnotcompute]

Son of a #%#$!!! Went out with friends last night and never got the chance to place my Phillies RL. Would've cashed 10 units again.

[LGHT]

Yeat another disappointing day winning 2-3, but loosing the parlay.

Hou +102
FL -160
SL -151
1* to win 4.46




5/2 LOSS -1
5/3 LOSS -1.5
5/4 LOSS -1.5
5/5 LOSS -1
Total 6.08 units

[LGHT]

Another 2-3 day with a tough loss on FL. I'm still amazed how they don't get 1 run in the 10th. I know if that was Mike Scioscia he would have given his club a much better chance at winning that game with a squeeze play!

Phi -122
SL -134
LAA RL +105
1* to win 5.51

5/2 LOSS -1
5/3 LOSS -1.5
5/4 LOSS -1.5
5/5 LOSS -1
5/6 LOSS -1
Total 5.08 units

[doesnotcompute]

Best RL value of the day, Padres RL.

[LGHT]

Wow that's a good payout, but you do know SD is the worse hitting team in the league right? The odd part is there pitching isn't that bad, the under was the play on SD.

[doesnotcompute]

Wow that's a good payout, but you do know SD is the worse hitting team in the league right? The odd part is there pitching isn't that bad, the under was the play on SD.

Complete screwup! Couldn't have been further from the truth, lol. I would've take the Phillies RL but as usual was too late to place my bet once the game had already started.

Take the Phillies RL now for 10 units, +160. Hey LGHT, your SU record is very good. I might just tail your bets SU, make a killing! Bombcanada also has a very good trend going though I doubt it will last in the long run.

[doesnotcompute]

Card for the day. Fade it!

[LGHT]

Wow a lot of positive action. I don't know if tailing my pics SU will make any money even going 2-3 every day. You may make a a little SU. Since i'm on the favs you may win 2* on the wins, but would loose 1.45* on the loss bank a half unit. For me I'll take the loss and wait until I go 3-0 and bank 5.5 units any day.

[LGHT]

1-3 Yesterday and in a rut not having a win all week. The bank is still positive so bank on the horse.

TB -131
Mil/SL O 9 -100
TX +149
1* to win 7.78


5/2 LOSS -1
5/3 LOSS -1.5
5/4 LOSS -1.5
5/5 LOSS -1
5/6 LOSS -1
5/7 LOSS -1
Total 4.08 units

[doesnotcompute]

Card for the day. Fade it!

LOL! Fading my picks would've resulted in a 4-1 day!

[LGHT]

They where good picks. Phil / Bos always play well at home. I should have got some of that instead of trying to bet against the Yankees. I mad 4 bets that involved the yanks this year and lost ALL of them!!