MLB Picks -Get some!

3PtShooter · 05-02-11, 09:05 AM

french toast bacon coffee

ClausensHands · 05-02-11, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by 3PtShooter

french toast bacon coffee

Yum!

ClausensHands · 05-02-11, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by ClausensHands

I'm going to start documenting my MLB picks. If these picks do well consistently then I'll explain the "system" I am using, which is really nothing more than eyeballing the lines/changes and which side the public is on. I will list the prices I see at the time I post, but my main goal is to just pick winners regardless of price.

L Orioles -105 vs White Sox
L Tigers -120 vs Yankees
W Athletics -115 vs Rangers
L Cubs + 175 vs Dodgers
Cardinals -175 vs Marlins
Nationals -110 vs Giants
Braves -145 vs Brewers (edit: added)
W Red Sox -112 vs Angels (edit: added)

Going to be changing these throughout the day.

The rest of the games don't really have the criteria I am looking for. Gonna start with these and see how it goes.

2-3 with a lot of chalk. boooooo. will see how tomorrow goes.

ClausensHands · 05-03-11, 09:08 AM

5/3

Royals -125
Marlins +123
Athletics -120
Mariners +113
~~Yankees RL -102~~

2-3 -1.25x

KJ CottonChopper · 05-03-11, 09:23 AM

Today will be better, I'm getting em right now. Thanks for the winners!!!

ClausensHands · 05-03-11, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by KJ CottonChopper

Today will be better, I'm getting em right now. Thanks for the winners!!!

My pleasure, sir!

ClausensHands · 05-03-11, 07:27 PM

Originally posted by ClausensHands

5/3

Royals -125
Marlins +123
Athletics -120
Mariners +113
~~Yankees RL -102~~

2-3 -1.25x

Cardinals +116 - added

ClausensHands · 05-04-11, 08:58 AM

5/3 3-2 +1.09x

YTD 6-6 -.16x

A little bit better. I had a 2x play on Pirates +1.5 which I didn't post. I will try to get my favorite plays in here, rather than those which fit my "system". That system was working well until I started posting here and then of course it started failing. I may abandon it altogether or perhaps use it to help determine picks in a different way.

I am an NBA parlay junkie and tried to carry that over to MLB. I have been failing badly and don't think I have hit a single 6-teamer since I started doing MLB parlays. However, I have been hitting 4-team dog RL parlays at a pretty good clip. Last night, Pirates/DBacks/Cubs/Mariners +1.5 hit. I think I will post those as well.

ClausensHands · 05-04-11, 10:27 AM

I am going to explain the way I am making my picks and hopefully I can get some responses from some people who have more betting experience(I have NO experience in MLB). I know this method is not new or groundbreaking, and I don't even know if it will consistently picks winners. I guess what I am hoping for is just a little discussion about this "method" so I, and perhaps others, might learn something.

I think its important to note that I try not to ever bet with the public. Call me a conspiracy theorist or whatever, I just have better results when I fade the public.

My method is basically to look at the line movement and compare it to which side the public is betting on. I use VegasInsider for this and usually just look at the opening/existing lines for the Las Vegas Hilton and the % money wagered on each side. If the line is moving consistently throughout the day opposite of what the public is betting, then I consider fading the public.

For instance, a good example is TEX vs. SEA today (5/4).

VI is showing the line for the Las Vegas Hilton opened at -105/-105. It is showing 85% of the money on the Rangers, yet their line has moved in favor of the Mariners. Currently the line is at +101/-111. So in this case, public is on Rangers, line moving towards Mariners, so I consider Mariners as a pick for the day.

I would appreciate any thoughts(hopefully constructive) on this sort of line movement when it moves against where the public is betting. I don't have a friend experienced at MLB betting to bounce ideas like these off of, so I am hoping to learn a little something here and perhaps start a discussion that others might find interesting.

Anyone care to enlighten me on things I am overlooking or not understanding about these line changes, advice on where I am getting my information, anything at all? Thanks!

ClausensHands · 05-04-11, 11:12 AM

CIN Over 4.5 (-135)

Not big on props, but I want some early action and I like this one. Reds light up RHP and they are facing one in his first start of the season (A. Rodriguez) who has been struggling most of the year in relief. I would probably put 2x on this if it weren't so cold.

Note: If I were to go by my system, I would pick Reds ML since I am seeing 65% of the money on the Astros but no real line movement in their favor. I am not laying -185 on the Reds and their bullpen though and not touching the RL(although tempted).

ClausensHands · 05-04-11, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by ClausensHands

CIN Over 4.5 (-135)

Not big on props, but I want some early action and I like this one. Reds light up RHP and they are facing one in his first start of the season (A. Rodriguez) who has been struggling most of the year in relief. I would probably put 2x on this if it weren't so cold.

Note: If I were to go by my system, I would pick Reds ML since I am seeing 65% of the money on the Astros but no real line movement in their favor. I am not laying -185 on the Reds and their bullpen though and not touching the RL(although tempted).

ClausensHands · 05-04-11, 02:08 PM

Dodgers -115

ClausensHands · 05-04-11, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by ClausensHands

L Dodgers -115

Nationals +139
Mets +125
Mariners -116
Red Sox RL +130

I will play these also, although they don't necessarily adhere to my system:

Royals -102
DBacks +120

Let's do this

SCRUBZ71 · 05-04-11, 07:22 PM

I'm in with Washington and Arizona..

ClausensHands · 05-04-11, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by ClausensHands

Nationals +139
Mets +125
Mariners -116
Red Sox RL +130

I will play these also, although they don't necessarily adhere to my system:

Royals -102
DBacks +120

Let's do this

Praying for a rainout in Boston. horrible night.