SteveAvery33's System Picks

[junkman773]

With ya on D-backs and pitt keep up the hard work

Junk

[The_Kid]

Love reading the writeups each day Steve Avery. Keep up the great work.

[wickdog]

I'm rolling with you again dude

PIT
ARZ
PHI
CIN
CHW

[SteveAvery33]

Well, the four day streak of positive returns has come to an end. The system went 5-4 yesterday, but showed a loss of 1.07% of the bankroll. There were some big dogs yesterday, which have a bit to do with it. The major culprit from yesterday was the Reds. Just another data point, I suppose. Trying to get the picks up a little earlier today so here they are.

Cubs (Zambrano) @ Pirates (Duke): The Cubs are better at everything. They are throwing their ace. Even though the line is big, I think it should be bigger. Cubs win 70.44% of the time. Pick: Cubs

Twins (Slowey) @ Tigers (Galarraga): Not so sure I have enough information on these two yet, so I think it is best to just stay away. No play.

Rangers (Gabbard) @ Indians (Carmona): This game is really interesting to me. The Indians have a huge edge in the pitching department here. Carmona is in another league compared to Gabbard. The Rangers pen has been atrocious. All of that doesn’t make up for the differences in offense. The Indians don’t have one. I think the Rangers win this 54.73% of the time. Pick: Rangers

Mariners (Bedard) @ Yankees (Pettitte): Here’s another game I’m a bit confused with. I understand the Yankees haven’t been healthy, but these two offenses have been equals to this point. A large pitching edge means the Mariners win 55.43% of the time. Pick: Mariners

Royals (Greinke) @ Blue Jays (Halladay): Surprised to the Blue Jays as such a big favorite here. Both teams have poor offenses. Both teams are throwing what I believe to be their best pitchers. The books have this one a little off. Royals win 44.69% of the time. Pick: Royals

Giants (Zito) @ Marlins (Olsen): The system has liked the Giants and today is no different. While Zito has been bad this year, Olsen has been good. The problem is, Olsen last year was Zito this year. This brings the line closer to the mean. Giants win 45.73% of the time. Pick: Giants

Orioles (Guthrie) @ Rays (Garza): Guthrie was better than Garza last year and has been better this year. This offsets the Rays edge offensively. Both teams have had excellent bullpens this year. This one is a lot closer than the books line implies. Orioles win this 50.53% of the time. Pick: Orioles

D’Backs (Davis) @ Braves (Reyes): This game is a no play. Davis is coming back from treatments for cancer. I wouldn’t even begin to no what to look at in this one. Hopefully Davis is back healthy and has beaten this awful disease, once and for all. No play.

Brewers (Suppan) @ Nationals (Perez): The Brewers have the edge in all three categories the system looks at so I was a little shocked to see the book line as close as it is. Brewers win here 58.71% of the time. Pick: Brewers

Phillies (Eaton) @ Astros (Backe): Adam Eaton has been pretty horrible over the last year and a half. Backe has been Backe. Their bats have player the same in ’08. Small edge here does to the Astros. They win 54.76% of the time. Pick: Astros

Angels (Saunders) @ White Sox (Floyd): Saunders has been exceptional this year, but I am still a bit skeptical. This one should be very close. Angels win 51.77% of the time. Pick: Angels

Mets (Perez) @ Rockies (Reynolds): As much as I think the Mets are horrible, I think Perez should be a favorite here. The system, however, doesn’t have enough information for a pick. No play.

Reds (Volquez) @ Padres (Estes): Estes just hasn’t been around enough in the last year plus for the system to spit out anything meaningful. No play.

Red Sox (Wakefield) @ A’s (Harden): Harden has been spectacular when he has seen the hill. Even with a small sample size from ’07 and ’08, I am confident in the projection. The A’s have a slight edge here. They win 55.73% of the time. Pick: A’s

Cardinals (Wainwright) @ Dodgers (Lowe): Here is the big game of the day for the system. The only edge I see is for the Dodgers bullpen. Wainwright was significantly better than Lowe this year, and everyone in the league has been significantly better than him this year. Plus the Cards have hit the cover off of the ball to date. I have no idea why the Dodgers and Lowe are getting so much respect today. The Cardinals win 63.29% of the time. Pick: Cardinals.

Friday’s Picks

Cardinals +112
Rangers +151
Cubs -168
Mariners +111
Orioles +125
Brewers -117
Giants +152
A’s -118
Astros -114
Angels -101

YTD

22-12 (+25.8%)
Average Line: +104

[rake922]

GL

[wickdog]

Nice job once again...thanks for all the effort!

[SteveAvery33]

Also, I wanted to say, if anyone has any questions or suggestions, feel free to let me know. I am always willing to make changes or do things slightly differently if it makes things easier for everyone.

[wickdog]

can you show the difference in percentage that your system comes up with and what the actual line percentage is? Just to see the margin.

[SteveAvery33]

Sure thing. It is a little drastic but it never hurts to see. For the books, I'll be using the implied probabilities. The three things you will see below are the team the system likes, my percentage and the books implied percentage.

Cubs 52.74 62.12
Brewers 58.71 52.98
Cardinals 63.29 46.37
Rangers 54.73 39.36
Mariners 55.43 46.59
Giants 45.73 38.46
Astros 54.76 52.32
Royals 44.69 39.51
Orioles 50.53 43.78
Angels 51.77 49.29
A’s 55.73 52.54


Sorry about the poor formating. I'm not sure how else to do it.

[wickdog]

Thanks...looks like we might go big on the Cardinals again tonight

[SteveAvery33]

Thanks...looks like we might go big on the Cardinals again tonight

Yeah, this makes three out of four days where the Cardinals are the biggest play. They've been 1-1, but dogs both times, so they have a positive return. Tonight will be interesting. I think the books are severely undervaluing them.

[wickdog]

I just wonder how Pujols state of mind is...he looked weird in his atbats the other night after almost killing Chris Young.

[junkman773]

Thanks and BOL

Junk

[LT Profits]

Steve,

Good Stuff! FYI, Cubs should be 70.44, not 52.74.

[LT Profits]

Also, try and use the Code command:

Team      	My Pct	Book Pct
Cubs       	70.44	62.12
Brewers   	58.71	52.98
Cardinals	63.29	46.37
Rangers   	54.73	39.36
Mariners	55.43	46.59
Giants     	45.73	38.46
Astros     	54.76	52.32
Royals     	44.69	39.51
Orioles    	50.53	43.78
Angels     	51.77	49.29
A’s         	55.73	52.54

[SteveAvery33]

Thanks for catching my mistake on the Cubs. Looked at the wrong line on my spreadsheet. And thanks for letting me know about the code command. That'll definitely help in the future.

[SteveAvery33]

Yesterday was another good day for the system. It was the second best day we’ve had so far. We finished 7-3, +14.17% to the bankroll. In all of the plays so far, the systems picks have outscored their opponents 229-173. Always something interesting to look at, especially considering the average line we’ve bet on is an underdog. I’m not sure if I am going to be able to get any picks out tomorrow. I don’t know if I am going to be home to run the numbers. My best friend is having his college graduation party, and he also just recently signed with the New York Dragons in the Arena league, so I might be a little out of it. I’m going to try and get some numbers up tonight based on the overnight lines, but I’m making no guarantees.

Mariners (Silva) @ Yankees (Mussina): I don’t know what to think with the Mariners. The system has picked them every day they have played and each game they got pounded. I’m not sure what it is seeing here, so use this information at your discretion. It once again likes the Mariners here. They win 52.32% of the time. Pick: Mariners

Royals (Hochevar) @ Blue Jays (Litsch): Last time Hochevar pitched, the system went against him and Lester threw his no hitter. It is against him once again. It likes the Blue Jays to win 61.99% of the time. Pick: Blue Jays

D’Backs (Johnson) @ Braves (Campillo): Not enough information from Campillo to recommend a play here. No play.

Mets (Vargas) @ Rockies (Francis): Even though the Rockies have the pitching advantage coming in, the Mets are offset it with an offensive edge. Don’t think the line should be as big as it is. The Mets win this 47.03% of the time. Pick: Mets

Angels (Weaver) @ White Sox (Danks): The White Sox are getting a bit too much respect for being hot lately which is giving the system a play with the Angels. Even though Danks has started hot, he isn’t the best starter in this game. The Angels win here 55.18% of the time. Pick: Angels

Orioles (Trachsel) @ Rays (Jackson): Even though Jackson has been good this year, I can’t forget that he sucked every year before this. He’s lucky here to be going against Trachsel, who’s always sucked. This line is just too big for the Rays. Orioles win this 44.42% of the time. Pick: Orioles

Phillies (Myers) @ Astros (Moehler): Not enough starter info for Moehler to give a good line. No play.

Cubs (Marquis) @ Pirates (Dumatrait): Same story as the last game. Not enough background on Dumatrait. No play.

Rangers (Feldman) @ Indians (Lee): No Play.

Twins (Bonser) @ Tigers (Robertson): Robertson is getting a bit too much credit for being basically the same pitcher as Boof. The Tigers offense hasn’t been good enough so far to get this big of a line. Twins win 45.22% of the time. Pick: Twins

Giants (Cain) @ Marlins (Badenhop): Can’t make a play here do to Badenhop. No play.

Brewers (McClung) @ Nationals (Lannan): Not enough info on McClung. No play.

Red Sox (Beckett) @ A’s (Duchscherer): Don’t have enough starters’ innings from Duchscherer, but I will say I personally like the Red Sox a lot here. No play.

Reds (Arroyo) @ Padres (Ledezma): Nothing here, once again. No play.

Cardinals (Lohse) @ Dodgers (Penny): Surprise, surprise. The system likes the Cardinals. It has paid dividends so far, so no use jumping off the ship yet. The offense makes up for the shortcomings on the mound. Cardinals win 47.83% of the time. Pick: Cardinals

Saturday’s Picks

Mariners +174
Cardinals +142
Angels +101
Blue Jays -135
Twins +153
Orioles +155
Mets +134

YTD

29-15 (+43.6%)

[fifawcs]

I was just wondering how do you derive the probability that a certain team is going to win. Use the Trachsel-Jackson game as an example.

[SteveAvery33]

I was just wondering how do you derive the probability that a certain team is going to win. Use the Trachsel-Jackson game as an example.

OK, first I take each team’s EQA. For more info on what that is, go to Baseball Prospectus. Anyway, I convert that to a runs scored per game based on a regression I ran. Next I use a pitching metric from BP to measure the starters' run value. I do the same with each team’s bullpen. These numbers combine to give me a runs allowed per game for each team.

After I know these numbers, I plug them into the pythagorean equation to figure out what the winning percentage of each team would be based on those two numbers. Those two winning percentages get put into the log5 equation to give me each teams chance to win the game.

Using numbers:

Orioles EQA = .249 = 4.41 runs per game
Rays EQA = .261 = 4.86 runs per game

Combining the two pitching ratings for both teams gives me:

5.17 runs allowed for the Orioles and 5.06 runs allowed for the Rays.

With 4.41 runs scores per game and 5.17 runs allowed per game, a team would expect to win 42.49% of its’ games. That is for the Orioles. For the Rays, at 4.86 scores and 5.06 allowed, they win 48.04% of their games.

I take those two percentages and put them into the log5 equation, which gives me 44.42% for the Orioles and 55.58% for the Rays. I compare those to the line at the book and I get my pick.

If that explanation is vague, feel free to ask more. I’m bad at explaining things.

[j$]

Just use accuscore

[SteveAvery33]

Once again we had another positive day. We finished 4-3 and saw the bankroll grow by 0.30%. Not a big day, but I’ll take it. The Mariners got clobbered again but the Cardinals won. These teams have been polar opposites in this system. If the Mariners ever do win one of these games, it’s going to pay well because they have been huge dogs for most of the games.

Mariners (Washburn) @ Yankees (Wang): The system still sees the Yankees pounding the Mariners but it doesn’t believe it should be as bad as the books think. I have Seattle winning 35.66% of the time. Pick: Mariners

Rangers (Mathis) @ Indians (Sabathia): Not enough information on Mathis. No play.

Twins (Perkins) @ Tigers (Verlander): Not enough information on Perkins. No play.

Royals (Greinke) @ Blue Jays (McGowan): Greinke has been pitching amazing this year. Both offenses have been lacking to this point. I’m not sure why the line is as big as it is. The Royals win 48.07% of the time. Pick: Royals

Giants (Misch) @ Marlins (Hendrickson): Not enough information on Misch. No play.

Cubs (Lilly) @ Pirates (Maholm): Big edge in the pitching and hitting departments here for the Cubs. I have no idea why the Pirates are getting as much respect as they are getting. The system seems a big disparity. Cubs win this 66.38% of the time. Pick: Cubs.

Brewers (Parra) @ Nationals (Redding): Even though the Nationals offense is pitiful, I still think they have a big edge in pitching. The Nats win this game 53.28% of the time. Pick: Nationals

D’Backs (Owings) @ Braves (Glavine): The Braves have the edge in all three categories but the books have a razor-thin line. Braves win 58.57% of the time. Pick: Braves

Orioles (Cabrera) @ Rays (Shields): Another game where a team has an edge in all three of my categories. I see a small edge to the Rays. They win 62.01% of the time. Pick: Rays

Phillies (Hamels) @ Astros (Sampson): The difference between starts is huge. Hamels saves more than a full run over Sampson, along with the fact that they have the better bullpen and offense. Phillies win 64.12% of the time. Pick: Phillies

Mets (Maine) @ Rockies (Cook): The Mets have the better offense and the better starting pitching, yet the Rockies are somehow favored. It doesn’t add up. Mets win 56.18% of the time. Pick: Mets

Reds (Belisle) @ Padres (Maddux): As of right now, with Pinnacle’s line, there isn’t an edge for either team. The pick could go either way because it is so close right now. I have no play but if the line moves in either direction, it could become a play for someone. Padres win 55.97% of the time. No play.

Red Sox (Lester) @ A’s (Blanton): Mr. No Hitter takes the hill tonight but he isn’t the best starter in this game. He is good enough with Boston’s offense, however. Red Sox win 53.29% of the time. Pick: Red Sox.

Cardinals (Wellemeyer) @ Dodgers (Kershaw): No pick here based on Kershaw. It is a game to watch, since Kershaw is arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball. No play.

Angels (Lackey) @ White Sox (Contreras): Contreras has been pitching well this year, but he is still nowhere near Lackey’s level. To me, Lackey is a top-5 pitcher in the AL but he isn’t getting the line to support that. There is no way it should be as close as the books have it. Angels win 64.00% of the time. Pick: Angels

Sunday’s Picks

Cubs -120
Angels -112
Braves -110
Mets +101
Royals +134
Nationals +104
Phillies -160
Mariners +215
Rays -150
Red Sox -107

YTD


33-18 (+44.0%)

[wickdog]

Thanks for getting them up even on a busy day for you.

[bearrroc]

I have been enjoying the fruits of your labor, keep up the good work Steve...

[SteveAvery33]

Bad day yesterday. Went 4-6 and lost 12.36% of the bankroll. The five biggest bets all lost. I don't have time to do write-ups, so here are the picks for today.

White Sox 63.56% -110
Blue Jays 70.56% -170
Brewers 60.93% -139
Rockies 38.47% +185
Braves 48.78% +113
Mariners 51.64% -101
Dodgers 46.89% +116

YTD

37-24 (+26.2%)

[rake922]

good day

[SteveAvery33]

Got back on the winning side of the ledger yesterday, going 4-3 +6.53%. Hope everyone had a good holiday weekend. Here are Tuesday’s Games.

Rockies (Jimenez) @ Phillies (Kendrick): The Phillies bats have been hot the last two days, but they are giving Kendrick a bit too much credit. The Phils should be favored, but not by this much. Rockies win 37.56% of the time. Pick: Rockies

Dodgers (Kuroda) @ Cubs (Gallagher): Not enough information from Gallagher. No play.

Yankees (Kennedy) @ Orioles (Burres): Not enough information from Kennedy. No play.

White Sox (Buehrle) @ Indians (Laffey): Seems like the books are overreacting to a good 30 innings from Laffey, without looking at how bad the Indians offense has been. I think the White Sox win 53.39% of the time. Pick: White Sox

Pirates (Snell) @ Reds (Cueto): I’m going to wait for a few more starts from Cueto before I start using him. No play.

Marlins (Miller) @ Mets (Santana): Miller hasn’t been very good in his career to this point, but he looked like the Andrew Miller that was supposed to be dominant coming out of college in his last start. The Marlins offense makes this a game. They win 41.30% of the time. Pick: Marlins

Rangers (Padilla) @ Rays (Sonnanstine): Texas’ offense has been mashing the ball this year, and today will be no exception. Sonnanstine hasn’t showed much of anything in the past two years. Rangers win 54.96% of the time. Pick: Rangers.

Braves (Hudson) @ Brewers (Bush): The Braves have a MAJOR edge in all three categories. They have a large offensive edge. Dave Bush is horrible and the Brewers bullpen has been ten runs worse than the Braves. I think the Braves win 73.11% of the time. Pick: Braves

Twins (Blackburn) @ Royals (Bannister): Not quite enough information on Blackburn, No play.

Giants (Lincecum) @ D’Backs (Haren): Lincecum is one of the top 10 pitchers in the NL, so in situations where you see a line like this, you have to take it. The D’Backs are the favorites, but not by that much. Giants win 44.95% of the time. Pick: Giants

Nationals (Hill) @ Padres (Wolf): This one should be ugly. Both offenses are garbage and the game is in Petco. We might have the first occurrence of negative runs in a game. Nats win 52.96% of the time. Pick: Nationals

Blue Jays (Burnett) @ A’s (Smith): Not enough info on Smith. No play.

Tigers (Bonderman) @ Angels (Santana): We have a tale of two pitchers this year. Bonderman has been bad and Santana has been good. The Tigers offense is too much to overcome, though. Tigers win 55.65% of the time. Pick: Tigers

Red Sox (Matsuzaka) @ Mariners (Batista): Finally. The Mariners are not the pick in a game they are playing. Chances are they will win here since I am finally not picking them. Boston wins 66.46% of the time. Pick: Red Sox

Tuesday’s Picks

Braves -128
Rangers +144
White Sox +134
Tigers +118
Nationals +123
Red Sox -170
Marlins +183
Giants +146
Rockies +171

YTD

41-27 (+34.5%)

[wickdog]

Houston @ St.louis?

[SteveAvery33]

Houston @ St.louis?

Hrmm, not sure how I missed that one. Anyway, I have this line basically right on. Cardinals win 56.91% of the time. I got the Cardinals at -131, but line moves in either direction could change the pick, so be sure to use the Kelly Calculator to see where the value is.

[SteveAvery33]

Had a terrible day yesterday, going 2-7 and losing 12.69% of the bankroll. Lost three 1-run games. Just not good. I'm going to be busy all morning, so I wanted to get up the two afternoon games. The night games will all be up later.

White Sox (Floyd) @ Indians (Westbrook): White Sox are the better team, with better hitting and a better bullpen. They should be favored here. Sox win 55.33 % of the time. Pick: White Sox

Rangers (Gabbard) @ Rays (Garza): Too much respect for Garza who just hasn't gotten enough done at the major league level. Rangers win 51.28% of the time. Pick: Rangers

Picks

White Sox +117
Rangers +138

[MyKickerHurts]

Any information on the ETA of the afternoon games

[SteveAvery33]

Just picks and winning percentages today. I don't have any time for write-ups.

Cubs -164 62.77%
Orioles +117 49.57%
Pirates +128 54.15%
Marlins +137 47.02%
Twins +138 47.71%
Cardinals -138 59.84%
A's -121 54.83%
Red Sox +110 51.52%

YTD

43-35 (+18.1%)

[SteveAvery33]

Once again, no writeups today. Work has just been too busy. Back to back losing days has me depressed. 6-12 the last two days. Here's hoping today is better.

Dodgers 60.72 % +110
Giants 44.36% +180
Rays 56.64% -124
Reds 65.17% -180
Blue Jays 46.20% +119
Rockies 43.64% +132

YTD

47-41 (+13.4%)

[wickdog]

Lets get this thing turned around...thanks Steve

[SteveAvery33]

Another unsuccessful day. Went 2-4 and down 1.31% of the bankroll. That makes three straight losing days. I have a good feeling about today. We are breaking out of the slump! Here are the picks:

Red Sox	        66.73%	-139
Marlins	        52.91%	+143
Rays	        64.06%	-143
Blue Jays	53.26%	+111
Nationals	42.64%	+171
Cardinals	64.84%	-160
Giants	        57.70%	-120
Royals	        47.76%	+125
Mariners	50.82%	+105
Braves	        45.04%	+133

YTD

49-45 (+11.9%)
Avg. Line: +110

[bearrroc]

Solid day...