GoggsViggs Sith dogs picks

[GoggsViggs]

7/26 play

Rangers-1.5 (-110)
Brewers-1 (+100)
Tigers-1 (-126)

[GoggsViggs]

7/26 play

Rangers-1.5 (-110)
Brewers-1 (+100) PUSH
Tigers-1 (-126) PUSH

0-1-2, -1.10x

Phase 2 ytd: 4-4-2, -0.59x
Week 1: 4-4-2, -0.59x

Phase1: 96-72 (57.1%) +30.00x ($3,000)

[GoggsViggs]

7/27 plays

Dbacks+104
Wsox-114

[GoggsViggs]

7/27 plays

Dbacks+104
Wsox-114

2-0, +2.04x

Phase 2 ytd: 6-4-2, +1.45x
Week 1: 6-4-2, +1.45x

Phase1: 96-72 (57.1%) +30.00x ($3,000)

[GoggsViggs]

7/28 play

Twins+139

[GoggsViggs]

7/28 play

Twins+139

0-1, -1x

Phase 2 ytd: 6-5-2, +0.45x
Week 1: 6-5-2, +0.45x

Phase1: 96-72 (57.1%) +30.00x ($3,000)

[GoggsViggs]

7/29 plays

Wsox-105
Giants-105
Tigers-1 (+102)

[GoggsViggs]

7/29 plays

Wsox-105
Giants-105
Tigers-1 (+102)

2-1, +0.97x

Phase 2 ytd: 8-6-2, +1.42x
Week 1: 8-6-2, +1.42x

Phase1: 96-72 (57.1%) +30.00x ($3,000)

[Love The Action]

Good luck today GV

[GoggsViggs]

7/30

Thx bro.

Mets-106
Marlins+126
bosox-1 (-125)
Blue jays-104

[GoggsViggs]

7/30

Thx bro.

Mets-106
Marlins+126
bosox-1 (-125)
Blue jays-104

1-3, -2.10x

Ugh..not a good week but at least loss is minimal.

Phase 2 ytd: 9-9-2, -0.68x
Week 1: 9-9-2, -0.68x

[GoggsViggs]

7/31 plays

Rangers-110
Reds-1.5 (+135)
Brew Crew-1.5 (+110)

[Love The Action]

Kick some butt today GV...hope the family is well...good luck!

[GoggsViggs]

7/31 plays

Rangers-110
Reds-1.5 (+135)
Brew Crew-1.5 (+110)

1-2, -0.75x.

Phase 2 ytd: 10-11-2, -1.43x
Week 1: 10-11-2, -1.43x

[GoggsViggs]

8/1 plays for 1.5x each.

Pitt-1 (+114)
Dodgers-123

[GoggsViggs]

8/31 late play

DBacks+115 for 1.5x
If this dont hit, taking a day off to regroup and retool MLB DeathStar.

[GoggsViggs]

Correction: Should be 8/1 play above, not 8/31.

[GoggsViggs]

8/1 plays for 1.5x each.

Pitt-1 (+114)
Dodgers-123

1-1, 0x

[GoggsViggs]

8/31 late play

DBacks+115 for 1.5x
If this dont hit, taking a day off to regroup and retool MLB DeathStar.

1-0, +1.73x

Phase 2 ytd: 12-12-2, +0.30x
Week 1: 10-11-2, -1.43x
Week 2: 2-1, +1.73x

[GoggsViggs]

8/2 Garu plays

Phillies-116
Nationals-108
Brew crew-118
Padres-106
Reds-126
bOL to all

[Love The Action]

Big card for you...good luck!

[GoggsViggs]

8/2 Garu plays

Phillies-116
Nationals-108
Brew crew-118
Padres-106
Reds-126
bOL to all

oh man, two 1-run losses prevented a nice 5-0 sweep night. still, profit is profit.....

3-2, +0.76x

Phase 2 ytd: 15-14-2, +1.06x
Week 1: 10-11-2, -1.43x
Week 2: 5-3, +2.49x

[GoggsViggs]

8/3 plays.

Marlins+122
Twins-105
Wsox-102
bOL to all

[GoggsViggs]

8/3 replacement play

Marlins Mets postponed.

Tailing LTA's we like stauffer and Padres play as replacement pick

Padres-123

[GoggsViggs]

8/3 plays.

Marlins+122 PPD
Twins-105
Wsox-102
bOL to all

8/3 replacement play

Marlins Mets postponed.

Tailing LTA's we like stauffer and Padres play as replacement pick

Padres-123

2-1, +0.98

Phase 2 ytd: 17-15-2, +2.04x
Week 1: 10-11-2, -1.43x
Week 2: 7-4, +3.47x

[GoggsViggs]

8/4 plays

nats+123
phils-130

[GoggsViggs]

8/4 plays

nats+123
phils-130

1-1, +0x

Phase 2 ytd: 18-16-2, +2.04x
Week 1: 10-11-2, -1.43x
Week 2: 8-5, +3.47x

[GoggsViggs]

8/5 plays

Royals-104
Braves-121
DBacks-130
Twins-104
Redsox-1 (-110)
bOL!

[GoggsViggs]

Can't wait til NFL!

Excerpt from Chad Millman blog: Finding Early Value in the NFL

So, where is the value if you still want to bet season win totals? Well, at the Hilton, bookmaker Jeff Sherman tells me the significant moves have been on the Bears (8.5), Bucs (8), Rams (7.5) and Giants (9.5) over. But, he also cautions, that hasn't been based on any handicapper's opinion. It's mostly because other books out there have slightly different totals and wiseguys are playing both sides.

Over at Lucky's, Jimmy Vaccaro reports that he's already moved the Bengals a full game down because he's had so much action on the under. He's also picked up a lot of action on the Cards and Vikes over, thanks to the additions of Messieurs Kolb and McNabb respectively. (Cards to win the division and Cards over Carolina in Week 1 have also gotten some play. Others getting Week 1 interest at Lucky's: Falcons as small faves over the Bears and Vikes, who opened plus-10 against the Chargers.)

The other day on my podcast I spoke with The SportsBoss, a finance professional himself who applies fancy money algorithms to handicapping models. He had the Steelers and Eagles both winning 12 games this year, a slight value on the 10.5 wins being offered by the Hilton. But the number he really liked was, in a contrarian move, Arizona under seven. This was his logic: "I'm not sold on Kolb at all. They won five games last year and I don't see a three-game improvement. They are still poor against the pass in yards per attempt and they traded their best corner in Rodgers-Cromartie. This year they also play non-division games against the NFC East and AFC North, which is tougher than the AFC West from last year. Under seven for the Cards is probably my top play."

I also checked in with Geoff Kulesa, of wunderdogsports.com. He uses a lot of systems and precedent to make his decisions, combined with some old fashioned pythag wins. He told me he liked "the Titans over seven wins and that has plus juice on it, right now. The reason I like that is a couple of things. I have a theme with this, and it's the same as my other stuff: How should they have done last year versus how did they actually do. If you look at them they had the biggest difference of actual wins versus pythag wins. They should have won 8.5 based on points scored and points allowed. Right now they are projected to win seven. According to pythag wins that is 1.5 games less. Also they had a huge change in schedule. They had the toughest schedule last year if you look at the win percentage of teams they played. This year they have the 23rd-easiest schedule, which is a reason they can outperform. They were also in top half of the league in offense and defense last year, that is consistent with eight or nine wins. I think seven wins is a low bar."

Kulesa also liked Denver and the over at 5.5 wins. "I think there will be some regression to the mean. When you do that badly you improve automatically. If you look at why they did poorly last year, minus-17 in turnovers, tied for worst in the league, they won't do that again. I also like a system in which you look at new coaches coming into a situation where the expectations are similar. Denver won four games last year. They should have won five based on the pythag. When you have a situation with a new coach and similar expectation for a team they almost always improve and do it at two to three games. That puts them in six or seven wins."

[Love The Action]

Can't wait til NFL!

Excerpt from Chad Millman blog: Finding Early Value in the NFL

So, where is the value if you still want to bet season win totals? Well, at the Hilton, bookmaker Jeff Sherman tells me the significant moves have been on the Bears (8.5), Bucs (8), Rams (7.5) and Giants (9.5) over. But, he also cautions, that hasn't been based on any handicapper's opinion. It's mostly because other books out there have slightly different totals and wiseguys are playing both sides.

Over at Lucky's, Jimmy Vaccaro reports that he's already moved the Bengals a full game down because he's had so much action on the under. He's also picked up a lot of action on the Cards and Vikes over, thanks to the additions of Messieurs Kolb and McNabb respectively. (Cards to win the division and Cards over Carolina in Week 1 have also gotten some play. Others getting Week 1 interest at Lucky's: Falcons as small faves over the Bears and Vikes, who opened plus-10 against the Chargers.)

The other day on my podcast I spoke with The SportsBoss, a finance professional himself who applies fancy money algorithms to handicapping models. He had the Steelers and Eagles both winning 12 games this year, a slight value on the 10.5 wins being offered by the Hilton. But the number he really liked was, in a contrarian move, Arizona under seven. This was his logic: "I'm not sold on Kolb at all. They won five games last year and I don't see a three-game improvement. They are still poor against the pass in yards per attempt and they traded their best corner in Rodgers-Cromartie. This year they also play non-division games against the NFC East and AFC North, which is tougher than the AFC West from last year. Under seven for the Cards is probably my top play."

I also checked in with Geoff Kulesa, of wunderdogsports.com. He uses a lot of systems and precedent to make his decisions, combined with some old fashioned pythag wins. He told me he liked "the Titans over seven wins and that has plus juice on it, right now. The reason I like that is a couple of things. I have a theme with this, and it's the same as my other stuff: How should they have done last year versus how did they actually do. If you look at them they had the biggest difference of actual wins versus pythag wins. They should have won 8.5 based on points scored and points allowed. Right now they are projected to win seven. According to pythag wins that is 1.5 games less. Also they had a huge change in schedule. They had the toughest schedule last year if you look at the win percentage of teams they played. This year they have the 23rd-easiest schedule, which is a reason they can outperform. They were also in top half of the league in offense and defense last year, that is consistent with eight or nine wins. I think seven wins is a low bar."

Kulesa also liked Denver and the over at 5.5 wins. "I think there will be some regression to the mean. When you do that badly you improve automatically. If you look at why they did poorly last year, minus-17 in turnovers, tied for worst in the league, they won't do that again. I also like a system in which you look at new coaches coming into a situation where the expectations are similar. Denver won four games last year. They should have won five based on the pythag. When you have a situation with a new coach and similar expectation for a team they almost always improve and do it at two to three games. That puts them in six or seven wins."

Good stuff GV

Might just get my nfl and ncaaf threads up this weekend. Looking forward to seeing yours as well.

Good luck tonight

[GoggsViggs]

8/5 plays

Royals-104
Braves-121
DBacks-130
Twins-104
Redsox-1 (-110)
bOL!

1-4, -3.48x. Turrible. Going to study harder and go with less but quality picks.

Phase 2 ytd: 19-20-2, -1.44x
Week 1: 10-11-2, -1.43x
Week 2: 9-9, -0.01x

[Love The Action]

Friday's over my friend....time to move on. What are your leans for Saturday?

Hey...thanks for the CFL winners! I was able to cash my first CFL wagers thanks to you and made a great MLB night even better. Please let me know of your CFL play of the week and I will tail. Thanks.

[9nickel]

i agree GV.. lets forget about yesterday and destroy the books today

some of these teams seem to be giving up already and there is 8 weeks left in the season

Good luck today!

[GoggsViggs]

Friday's over my friend....time to move on. What are your leans for Saturday?

Hey...thanks for the CFL winners! I was able to cash my first CFL wagers thanks to you and made a great MLB night even better. Please let me know of your CFL play of the week and I will tail. Thanks.

i agree GV.. lets forget about yesterday and destroy the books today

some of these teams seem to be giving up already and there is 8 weeks left in the season

Good luck today!

Thx bros. Let's roll....

8/6 plays

Yankees RL (-105)
Braves-114
Cardinals-123

CFL: liking Hamilton Ticats win tonight. Ham 30 Cal 24
Hamilton+3.5, over 50.5

Let's get these.

[GoggsViggs]

MLB plays above for 1.5x each.