According to commonly held beliefs on these threads - big name favs are the square side of a matchup. Well - they may often be the public side – but they are not always the wrong side. When the price is right I’ll take the Four Seasons over Motel 6 any time. We did so last night with Verlander over Bergesen and I’m going that way again in a very similar pitching matchup with Josh Johnson at home -178 ML and +125 RL vs John Lannan and the Nats.
There’s a lot of talk about the Phillies rotation – and justifiably so. But Josh Johnson may actually be the best starter in the NL. With his simple, straightforward and explosive FB and plus-SL approach - he led the league in ERA last year (2.30). The guy Ks 25% of the batters he faces. Major league lineups hit .224 against him last year and he went an average of 27 innings between long balls. There may be some physical concerns long term (back, elbow) - but he’s healthy right now. He took a no hitter to the 7th in his opening win over the Mets. And the Nats have never hung a personal Loss on him in his 13 career starts against them. The Marlins club is 10-3 (.769) overall in those starts and this one is at home.
On the other side - John Lannan is a very hittable, middle of the rotation LHer. Much like the RHer Bergesen last night vs Detrioit - he’s primarily a sinker (88mph)/SL guy who pitches to contact and lives by the ground ball. When his sinker flattens out - he’s in big trouble. For a while last year it did and he was sent down to AAA before returning to finish 8-8. He also mixes in a curve and change that he also must keep down and off the plate to survive.
Line-up wise - the Marlins will probably be without Stanton tonight but table setter Coghlan is getting on, Buck is seeing it and hitting it and Hanley Ramirez, though off to a slow start, is 7 for 15 lifetime vs Lannan.
I’m playing this one to win 2 Units in much the same way we did last night w/ Verlander. I have 1.58 Units ML and .89 Units RL. That’s an effective -1 Run at -123.5. We get a push on the money overall if Marlins win by 1 and pick up 2 Units if they cover the RL. It puts only 2.47 Units at risk. The break even percentage on the overall play is 55.26%.
Good Luck to all.
There’s a lot of talk about the Phillies rotation – and justifiably so. But Josh Johnson may actually be the best starter in the NL. With his simple, straightforward and explosive FB and plus-SL approach - he led the league in ERA last year (2.30). The guy Ks 25% of the batters he faces. Major league lineups hit .224 against him last year and he went an average of 27 innings between long balls. There may be some physical concerns long term (back, elbow) - but he’s healthy right now. He took a no hitter to the 7th in his opening win over the Mets. And the Nats have never hung a personal Loss on him in his 13 career starts against them. The Marlins club is 10-3 (.769) overall in those starts and this one is at home.
On the other side - John Lannan is a very hittable, middle of the rotation LHer. Much like the RHer Bergesen last night vs Detrioit - he’s primarily a sinker (88mph)/SL guy who pitches to contact and lives by the ground ball. When his sinker flattens out - he’s in big trouble. For a while last year it did and he was sent down to AAA before returning to finish 8-8. He also mixes in a curve and change that he also must keep down and off the plate to survive.
Line-up wise - the Marlins will probably be without Stanton tonight but table setter Coghlan is getting on, Buck is seeing it and hitting it and Hanley Ramirez, though off to a slow start, is 7 for 15 lifetime vs Lannan.
I’m playing this one to win 2 Units in much the same way we did last night w/ Verlander. I have 1.58 Units ML and .89 Units RL. That’s an effective -1 Run at -123.5. We get a push on the money overall if Marlins win by 1 and pick up 2 Units if they cover the RL. It puts only 2.47 Units at risk. The break even percentage on the overall play is 55.26%.
Good Luck to all.
We will get em next time.