Overnite nickel line bets

[Dan Kelly]

Jon Lester ain't Roger Clemens. Got to take a home dog on the runline.

4/7/11 12:05pm Reduced Baseball 962 Cleveland Indians +1½ +102* vs Boston Red Sox (J Lester - L must Start F Carmona - R must Start)

Carmona had a bad opening day start but a good spring training - he can keep them in this.

[Dan Kelly]

The notion of this thread is to find value early - the nickel lines at 5dimes come out around 10pm - straight bets only. Over the course of the season, if the picks are just ok the extra value of the nickel line should show its advantage.

These plays will usually be 1 unit, that is 1% of bankroll.

1-0 +1.02 units

[Dan Kelly]

Sat 4/9 Pix

Never saw Fridays nickel lines.

4/9/11 7:10pm Reduced Baseball 958 Milwaukee Brewers -104* vs Chicago Cubs (M Garza - R must Start C Narveson - L must Start) 1 unit

4/9/11 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 956 Pittsburgh Pirates -108* vs Colorado Rockies (G Reynolds - R must Start C Morton - R must Start)

4/9/11 9:10pm Reduced Baseball 979 Cleveland Indians +113* vs Seattle Mariners (J Masterson - R must Start D Fister - R must Start)

4/9/11 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 961 Cincinnati Reds -103* vs Arizona Diamondbacks (B Arroyo - R must Start D Hudson - R must Start)

4/9/11 8:35pm Reduced Baseball 966 San Diego Padres +108* vs Los Angeles Dodgers (H Kuroda - R must Start D Moseley - R must Start)

[Dan Kelly]

simple math

If you are new to gambling:

The math behind the advantage of the nickel line is very simple.

To win paying a 20cent vig you have to win 53% of your bets - straight bets, same unit size.

simple illustration:

+53 winners
-47 losers
- 4.7 vig
+ 1.3 units per 100 bets

using a nickel line you have to win 51% of your bets

+51 winners
- 49 losers
- 1.25 vig
+ .75 units per 100 bets

FYI - dime line
+52 winners
- 48 losers
- 2.4 vig
+ 1.6 units per 100 bets

All of the above does not matter if you don't pick winners, but if you want to win in the long run you have to get every advantage.

[Dan Kelly]

4/9
Milwaukee Brewers -104* WIN
Pittsburgh Pirates -108* LOSE
Cleveland Indians +113* WIN
Cincinnati Reds -103* WIN
San Diego Padres +108* LOSE


4/9 3-2 = +1.05

YTD = +2.07

[Dan Kelly]

Picks for Sunday 4/10

• 4/10/2011 4:05 PM Reduced Baseball 912 San Diego Padres* -122 vs Los Angeles Dodgers J Ely - R Listed A Harang - R Listed
• 4/10/2011 4:10 PM Reduced Baseball 916 Arizona Diamondbacks* +101 vs Cincinnati Reds M Leake - R Listed J Saunders - L Listed
• 4/10/2011 1:05 PM Reduced Baseball 918 Detroit Tigers* -148 vs Kansas City Royals
  L Hochevar - R Listed R Porcello - R Listed
• 4/10/2011 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 930 Boston Red Sox* +107 vs New York Yankees
  C Sabathia - L Listed J Beckett - R Listed

[Dan Kelly]

4/10
San Diego Padres* -122 WIN
Arizona Diamondbacks* +101 WIN
Detroit Tigers* -148 LOSE
Boston Red Sox* +107 WIN

4/10 3-1 = +1.6

YTD = +3.67

[Dan Kelly]

pix for Mon 4/11

4/11/11 7:10pm Reduced Baseball 952 New York Mets -111* vs Colorado Rockies (J Hammel - R must Start M Pelfrey - R must Start)
4/11/11 8:05pm Reduced Baseball 953 Chicago Cubs -112* vs Houston Astros (R Dempster - R must Start N Figueroa - R must Start)
4/11/11 9:40pm Reduced Baseball 955 St. Louis Cardinals -108* vs Arizona Diamondbacks (K McClellan - R must Start B Enright - R must Start)
4/11/11 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 966 Chicago White Sox -119* vs Oakland Athletics (D Braden - L must Start M Buehrle - L must Start)

[Dan Kelly]

Simple pix

FYI -
At 5dimes the nickel lines come out about 10 pm and are gone when I wake up, so I am making the most simplistic pix on this thread - just cappin WHIP, Home/Road, Streaks, etc. Hopefully the value will be in getting the nickel line - so that means if I do an okay job of cappin, the lines will move my way more than 50% of the time (true so far). My hypothesis is that just about anyone can beat a season long nickel line if they pay attention to baseball a little bit and stick to a simple system. Of course, only the very lucky can beat a 20cent line without serious work.

And using simple Kelly (no relation) Criterion money management - always a 1 unit (1% of bankroll) bet so the amount of the bet goes up as you're winning (bankroll getting larger) and goes down when you lose - then we should show a unit profit in October.
One other thing I will do is when I am winning I will bet a game or two more than when I am on a losing streak.

[Dan Kelly]

New York Mets -111 LOSE
Chicago Cubs -112 WIN
St. Louis Cardinals -108 WIN
Chicago White Sox -119 LOSE


4/11 2 - 2 = -.3


YTD + 3.37 Units

[Dan Kelly]

4/12/11 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 901 Philadelphia Phillies -118* vs Washington Nationals (J Blanton - R must Start L Hernandez - R must Start)
4/12/11 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 904 Pittsburgh Pirates +108* vs Milwaukee Brewers (S Marcum - R must Start K Correia - R must Start)
4/12/11 7:10pm Reduced Baseball 907 Florida Marlins +163* vs Atlanta Braves (C Volstad - R must Start T Hanson - R must Start)

4/12/11 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 921 Baltimore Orioles +165* vs New York Yankees (C Tillman - R must Start A Burnett - R must Start)
4/12/11 10:05pm Reduced Baseball 927 Cleveland Indians +158* vs Los Angeles Angels (F Carmona - R must Start D Haren - R must Start)

[Dan Kelly]

Philadelphia Phillies -118 LOSE
Pittsburgh Pirates +108 RAIN OUT
Florida Marlins +163 LOSE
Baltimore Orioles +165 RAIN OUT
Cleveland Indians +158 LOSE

4/12
0-3 = -3.18 Units

YTD = +.19 Units

[Dan Kelly]

4/13/11 9:40pm Reduced Baseball 964 Arizona Diamondbacks -117* vs St. Louis Cardinals (Westbrook - R must Start I Kennedy - R must Start

4/13/11 10:15pm Reduced Baseball 966 San Francisco Giants -141* vs Los Angeles Dodgers (T Lilly - L must Start J Sanchez - L must Start)

4/13/11 2:10pm Reduced Baseball 974 Chicago White Sox -108* vs Oakland Athletics (B Anderson - L must Start J Danks - L must Start)

4/13/11 3:40pm Reduced Baseball 975 Toronto Blue Jays -112* vs Seattle Mariners (K Drabek - R must Start J Vargas - L must Start)

[Dan Kelly]

4/13/11
Arizona Diamondbacks -117 LOSE
San Francisco Giants -141 WIN
Chicago White Sox -108 LOSE
Toronto Blue Jays -112 WIN

4/13 -.25

YTD -.06

[BamaBill67]

Good pics . 2 of them are winning right now and Ari should be fired up still after there skipper got ejected last night and I. Kennedy is the better pitcher IMHO . He did really good when he was with A's . Sanchez vs Lilly is in SF favor just gotta hope the bats show up cause it might be close ....... GL

[Dan Kelly]

4/14/11 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 903 Milwaukee Brewers -104* vs Pittsburgh Pirates (R Wolf - L must Start P Maholm - L must Start)
4/14/11 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 918 Kansas City Royals -128* vs Seattle Mariners (D Fister - R must Start B Chen - L must Start)
4/14/11 10:05pm Reduced Baseball 920 Oakland Athletics -144* vs Detroit Tigers (P Coke - L must Start G Gonzalez - L must Start)
4/14/11 3:10pm Reduced Baseball 921 Colorado Rockies -107* vs New York Mets (J De La Rosa - L must Start C Capuano - L must Start)

[Dan Kelly]

Results 4/14

4/14
Milwaukee Brewers -104 WIN
Kansas City Royals -128 WIN
Oakland Athletics -144 LOSE
Colorado Rockies -107 WIN


4/14
3 - 1 = + 1.56

YTD = +1.5 Units

[Dan Kelly]

Pix for 4/15

4/15/11 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 953 Milwaukee Brewers -117* vs Washington Nationals (C Narveson - L must Start T Gorzelanny - L must Start)
4/15/11 8:40pm Reduced Baseball 962 Colorado Rockies -145* vs Chicago Cubs (M Garza - R must Start J Chacin - R must Start)
4/15/11 10:10pm Reduced Baseball 966 Los Angeles Dodgers -112* vs St. Louis Cardinals (K Lohse - R must Start J Garland - R must Start)
4/15/11 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 970 Cleveland Indians -102* vs Baltimore Orioles (Z Britton - L must Start J Masterson - R must Start)
4/15/11 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 976 Kansas City Royals -121* vs Seattle Mariners (E Bedard - L must Start L Hochevar - R must Start)

[robert_wrath]

4/14
Milwaukee Brewers -104 WIN
Kansas City Royals -128 WIN
Oakland Athletics -144
Colorado Rockies -107 WIN

4/14

YTD

You need Oakland to pull thru with a miracle. Bottom of the 8th Detroit 3-0.

[Dan Kelly]

Results for 4/15

Results for 4/15

Milwaukee Brewers -117 LOSE
Colorado Rockies -145 WIN
Los Angeles Dodgers -112 LOSE
Cleveland Indians -102 WIN
Kansas City Royals -121 WIN


4/15
3 - 2 = +0.71

YTD
17 - 13 = +2.21

[Dan Kelly]

Pix for 4/16
4/16/11 1:05pm Reduced Baseball 901 Milwaukee Brewers -146* vs Washington Nationals (Y Gallardo - R must Start J Marquis - R must Start)

4/16/11 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 911 San Francisco Giants -115* vs Arizona Diamondbacks (B Zito - L must Start J Saunders - L must Start)

4/16/11 1:05pm Reduced Baseball 917 Baltimore Orioles -103* vs Cleveland Indians (J Guthrie - R must Start J Tomlin - R must Start)

4/16/11 1:05pm Reduced Baseball 920 New York Yankees -119* vs Texas Rangers (D Holland - L must Start F Garcia - R must Start)

4/16/11 9:05pm Reduced Baseball 923 Detroit Tigers -115* vs Oakland Athletics (J Verlander - R must Start D Braden - L must Start)

4/16/11 4:10pm Reduced Baseball 926 Tampa Bay Rays -119* vs Minnesota Twins (S Baker - R must Start J Niemann - R must Start)

[BMaddz]

Results for 4/15

Milwaukee Brewers -117 LOSE
Colorado Rockies -145 WIN
Los Angeles Dodgers -112 WIN
Cleveland Indians -102 WIN
Kansas City Royals -121 WIN

4/15
4 - 1 = +2.83

YTD = +4.33

dodgers about to lose ma dude

[Dan Kelly]

Sorry, I set that up b4 I went to bed and inadvertently saved it - I fixed it.

[Dan Kelly]

Results from 4/16

Milwaukee Brewers -146 Rain Out
San Francisco Giants -115 WIN
Baltimore Orioles -103 LOSE
New York Yankees -119 WIN
Detroit Tigers -115 LOSE
Tampa Bay Rays -119 WIN

4/16
3-2 = + 0.82

YTD
20-15 = + 3.03

[Dan Kelly]

4/17 - could not stay up for the nickel lines

The nickel lines were not out when I went to bed.

[Dan Kelly]

Pix for 4/18

4/18/11 8:40pm Reduced Baseball 907 San Francisco Giants -126* vs Colorado Rockies (T Lincecum - R must Start E Rogers - R must Start)
4/18/11 10:10pm Reduced Baseball 909 Atlanta Braves -128* vs Los Angeles Dodgers (T Hudson - R must Start T Lilly - L must Start)
4/18/11 11:05am Reduced Baseball 912 Boston Red Sox -127* vs Toronto Blue Jays (R Romero - L must Start D Matsuzaka - R must Start)
4/18/11 6:40pm Reduced Baseball 913 Chicago White Sox +123* vs Tampa Bay Rays (E Jackson - R must Start D Price - L must Start)
4/18/11 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 916 Baltimore Orioles -110* vs Minnesota Twins (F Liriano - L must Start C Tillman - R must Start)
4/18/11 10:10pm Reduced Baseball 921 Detroit Tigers -115* vs Seattle Mariners (M Scherzer - R must Start J Vargas - L must Start)

[blackeyeshamus]

like 'em all, mr. kelly.
good stuff. wouldn't be surprised
to see you hit 'em all.

[Dan Kelly]

Tryin to KEEP IT SIMPLE - No large positions, take what you're given.

[Dan Kelly]

San Francisco Giants -126 WIN
Atlanta Braves -128 LOSE
Boston Red Sox -127 WIN
Chicago White Sox +123 LOSE
Baltimore Orioles -110 LOSE
Detroit Tigers -115 WIN

4/18
3-3 = -.38

YTD
23-18 = + 2.65

[Dan Kelly]

Pix for 4/19

4/19/11 7:10pm Reduced Baseball 954 Cincinnati Reds -150* vs Arizona Diamondbacks (A Galarraga - R must Start S Lecure - R must Start)
4/19/11 8:05pm Reduced Baseball 960 Chicago Cubs -113* vs San Diego Padres (D Moseley - R must Start J Russell - L must Start)
4/19/11 10:10pm Reduced Baseball 966 Los Angeles Dodgers -111* vs Atlanta Braves (B Beachy - R must Start H Kuroda - R must Start)
4/19/11 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 972 Toronto Blue Jays -101* vs New York Yankees
(A Burnett - R must Start K Drabek - R must Start)
4/19/11 10:05pm Reduced Baseball 978 Oakland Athletics -113* vs Boston Red Sox
(J Lackey - R must Start B Anderson - L must Start)
4/19/11 10:10pm Reduced Baseball 979 Detroit Tigers -107* vs Seattle Mariners (P Coke - L must Start D Fister - R must Start)

I will be gone on vacation for a few days. BOL

[Dan Kelly]

Results from 4/19

Cincinnati Reds -150 LOSE
Chicago Cubs -113 RAIN OUT
Los Angeles Dodgers -111 LOSE
Toronto Blue Jays -101 WIN
Oakland Athletics -113 WIN
Detroit Tigers -107 LOSE

4/18
2-3 = -.68

YTD
25-21 = + 1.97

[Dan Kelly]

I went on vacation for a week and when I got back I couldn't stay up late enough to cap the nickel lines. But today at 6 am, the nickel lines were up so I will try to cap these every day early in the morning. I use 5dimes.com.
The idea behind this thread is to make good picks v. the nickel lines and hopefully get a long run advantage.

5/2/11 10:05pm Reduced Baseball 909 Pittsburgh Pirates +139* vs San Diego Padres (J McDonald - R must Start A Harang - R must Start)
5/2/11 3:35pm Reduced Baseball 913 Texas Rangers +105* vs Oakland Athletics (D Holland - L must Start B McCarthy - R must Start)
5/2/11 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 915 Los Angeles Angels +109* vs Boston Red Sox (Jer Weaver - R must Start C Buchholz - R must Start)
5/2/11 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 917 New York Yankees +108* vs Detroit Tigers (B Colon - R must Start J Verlander - R must Start)
5/2/11 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 919 Baltimore Orioles +106* vs Chicago White Sox (J Guthrie - R must Start M Buehrle - L must Start)
5/2/11 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 902 Washington Nationals -103* vs San Francisco Giants (M Bumgarner - L must Start T Gorzelanny - L must Start)
5/2/11 7:10pm Reduced Baseball 904 Atlanta Braves -135* vs Milwaukee Brewers (Y Gallardo - R must Start J Jurrjens - R must Start)
5/2/11 8:15pm Reduced Baseball 908 St. Louis Cardinals -160* vs Florida Marlins (C Volstad - R must Start K Lohse - R must Start)

[caseyj16]

I like the indians in this one

[Dan Kelly]

The Indians don't play 2nite???