Iced's 2011 MLB Plays

[Iced]

MLB betting is a grind. There are 2,430 games -- which means there is plenty of opportunity for action, but also plenty of opportunity to blow your money on a game just because you feel like it. It's awfully easy to succumb to chasing or any other number of ways to flush your money down the toilet. However, staying consistent with similar units bet on each game is one of many keys to coming out profitable in MLB. No need to bet half your bankroll just because you're on a tough losing streak. Reconsidering strategies and lowering your unit size is what you want to do when you're losing, you don't want to bet irresponsibly.

The purpose of my thread will be to share consistent winners with the forum. All my plays will be documented here on this thread daily and on my SBR spreadsheet.

The majority of my plays will be on the moneyline, much like everyone else. I will also sprinkle in some over/unders and plays on the -1 runline.

If any of you have questions or comments, don't hesitate to speak up! This is my first post on SBR, but I've been lurking here for quite some time now. I just created this account recently. And my SBR Pro app is currently in the process of being validated. So, again, any input in this thread would be appreciated -- whether it be advice, chit-chat, tailing my plays, or just comments, questions, concerns in general.

Let's hope for a profitable MLB season for all.

[Iced]

Preseason Power Rankings
1.) Boston Red Sox
2.) New York Yankees
3.) San Francisco Giants
4.) Atlanta Braves
5.) Philadelphia Phillies
6.) Texas Rangers
7.) Minnesota Twins
8.) Cincinnati Reds
9.) Chicago White Sox
10.) Milwaukee Brewers
11.) Colorado Rockies
12.) Tampa Bay Rays
13.) Detroit Tigers
14.) Oakland Athletics
15.) St. Louis Cardinals
16.) Los Angeles Dodgers
17.) Los Angeles Angels
18.) Florida Marlins
19.) Baltimore Orioles
20.) Chicago Cubs
21.) Toronto Blue Jays
22.) New York Mets
23.) San Diego Padres
24.) Washington Nationals
25.) Seattle Mariners
26.) Cleveland Indians
27.) Arizona Diamondbacks
28.) Houston Astros
29.) Kansas City Royals
30.) Pittsburgh Pirates

[Iced]

Preseason Divisional Predictions

AL West
1.) Texas Rangers
2.) Oakland Athletics
3.) Los Angeles Angels
4.) Seattle Mariners

AL Central
1.) Minnesota Twins
2.) Chicago White Sox
3.) Detroit Tigers
4.) Cleveland Indians
5.) Kansas City Royals

AL East
1.) Boston Red Sox
2.) New York Yankees
3.) Tampa Bay Rays
4.) Baltimore Orioles
5.) Toronto Blue Jays

NL West
1.) San Francisco Giants
2.) Colorado Rockies
3.) Los Angeles Dodgers
4.) San Diego Padres
5.) Arizona Diamondbacks

NL Central
1.) Cincinnati Reds
2.) Milwaukee Brewers
3.) St. Louis Cardinals
4.) Chicago Cubs
5.) Houston Astros
6.) Pittsburgh Pirates

NL East
1.) Atlanta Braves
2.) Philadelphia Phillies
3.) Florida Marlins
4.) New York Mets
5.) Washington Nationals

[Iced]

Please note, my preseason power rankings and divisional predictions have absolutely no impact on how I cap individual games. They are just for fun and discussion really.

[TPowell]

Atlanta over Philly? Love that as a Braves guy

[Iced]

Atlanta over Philly? Love that as a Braves guy

It certainly seems to be a minority opinion that I'm holding. I do think it's plausible though. The departure of Jayson Werth and the injury concerns with Chase Utley have essentially created a Phillies line-up that is average at best compared to the rest of the league. There's no denying that the Phillies have perhaps the best rotation in the history of the league, but I do think that they're more built for the post-season rather the regular season. Four of the Phillies starters are in their 30s as well, so there's no assurance that they will hold up. I think the Braves have the hitting, depth, and pitching to go neck-to-neck with the Phillies until the end of the regular season. I believe each team will finish somewhere in the 90-95 win range. The Phillies are more hype than anything else imo.

[Iced]

Opening Day Plays --- March 31, 2011

(1x) Detroit Tigers (ML) +138
(1x) Los Angeles Angels (-1 RL) -109

I've been waiting for this day to come for a while now, and it's finally here! Let's start this season off well!

[TPowell]

may tail you on Tigers. Thinking of sitting it out until Monday though

[Iced]

Each starting pitcher has typically had rough outings on opening day. This year, however, Verlander has been working harder than ever in spring training -- he's been pitching lights out in his starts this spring. CC should give up at least four runs by himself in this first start, he's just a bad opening day / beginning of the year starter. As long as Verlander minimizes the damage from the Yankees bats and his defense backs him up, the Tigers should get the win. This is really more of a value play than anything else though. I thought the line should be closer to +118 rather than +138. Betting dogs early in the year has proven to be successful in the past, laying chalk in the beginning in the year is a recipe for disaster. Good luck on your decision TPowell.

[stikymess]

Opening day

Opening Day Plays --- March 31, 2011

(1x) Detroit Tigers (ML) +138
(1x) Los Angeles Angels (-1 RL) -109

I've been waiting for this day to come for a while now, and it's finally here! Let's start this season off well!

Welcome Ice! Wondering where you get your #'s from? I know 5 dimes has -1 lines haven't looked yet if they are up. Good luck have a great year.

[Iced]

Welcome Ice! Wondering where you get your #'s from? I know 5 dimes has -1 lines haven't looked yet if they are up. Good luck have a great year.

Thanks. You can create your own -1 lines (or +1 lines) if your book doesn't offer -1 or +1 lines themselves. I've attached a -1 Runline calculator that I use. I didn't create it btw, I saved it from I don't even know where a while ago.

[Iced]

You will be betting on the -1.5 runline and moneyline to create the -1 RL. The calculator will tell you how much to bet on each to create the -1 RL based on how much you want to win.

[stikymess]

Got it. Hey again best of luck!

[Iced]

Thanks stiky, I appreciate it.

[Iced]

Opening Day Plays --- March 31, 2011
(1x) Detroit Tigers (ML) +138 ----- LOSS (-1x)
(1x) Los Angeles Angels (-1 RL) -109 ----- WIN (+1x)

I went 1-1 today, breaking even to start the season.

I didn't anticipate the bullpens to be such a problem. The Tigers bullpen essentially lost the game. And the Angels bullpen (using five relief pitchers) almost lost the game as well once Jered Weaver left the game after throwing a strong outing himself.

I will probably post my plays for tomorrow later tonight.

2011 MLB Record: 1-1 (+0.00 units)

[stikymess]

Hated to see that one slip away from the tigers. Good luck tomorrow.

[Iced]

Friday, April 1, 2011

(1x) Houston Astros (+1 RL) +172
(1x) Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) +163
(1x) Texas Rangers (ML) +112
(1x) Florida Marlins (-1.5 RL) +130

Cards like this are great, especially in the beginning of the year when dogs tend to shine. Going 2-2 will show a good profit, and I expect to at least go .500 on this card. Best of luck today.

Thanks for the kind words stiky.

[Iced]

Friday, April 1, 2011
(1x) Houston Astros (+1 RL) +172 ----- PUSH
(1x) Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) +163
(1x) Texas Rangers (ML) +112
(1x) Florida Marlins (-1.5 RL) +130

Tough push after that blown save by Lyons. Oh well, that's why I took the +1 RL, no money lost. Three games left to go and the Bucs are currently up 4-2. I might be adding a play, not sure yet.

2011 MLB Record: 1-1-1 (+0.00 units)

[Iced]

Friday, April 1, 2011
(1x) Houston Astros (+1 RL) +172 ----- PUSH
(1x) Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) +163 ----- WIN (+1.63x)
(1x) Texas Rangers (ML) +112
(1x) Florida Marlins (-1.5 RL) +130

Nice win for the Bucs there.

Adding:
(1x) Toronto Blue Jays (ML) -119

2011 MLB Record: 2-1-1 (+1.63 units)

[juanego]

Im loving the Marlins here, Ill be following you lets see what you got!
BOL!

[Iced]

Im loving the Marlins here, Ill be following you lets see what you got!
BOL!

Mike Pelfrey has a history of getting absolutely shelled by the Marlins (Marlins batters have .343 average against Pelfrey) and Josh Johnson is a perennial Cy Young contender (Mets batters have .216 average against Johnson).

Let's win some money.

[Iced]

Friday, April 1, 2011
(1x) Houston Astros (+1 RL) +172 ----- PUSH
(1x) Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) +163 ----- WIN (+1.63x)
(1x) Texas Rangers (ML) +112 ----- WIN (+1.12x)
(1x) Florida Marlins (-1.5 RL) +130

Adding:
(1x) Toronto Blue Jays (ML) -119

Nice win for the Rangers. I'm surprised the Sox bullpen held up for so long.

Adding:
(1x) San Francisco Giants (ML) +110

This will be my last play for the night.

2011 MLB Record: 3-1-1 (+2.75 units)

[TPowell]

wow wish I was tailing, good calls so far pal

[Iced]

Thanks for the complements TPowell.

Blue Jays are up 4-0 right now and looking good.

Josh Johnson is throwing a no hitter through four, hopefully the Marlins can finally get their bats rolling against Pelfrey.

[Iced]

Grand slam by John Buck.
Blue Jays up 6-0 and Marlins up 4-0.

[Iced]

Alright, I lied about the Giants being my final play. I am adding:

(1x) Oakland Athletics (ML) -110

The Blue Jays are up 8-0 in the fifth, all they have to do is win the ML.
The Marlins are up 5-0 in the sixth and Josh Johnson is currently pitching a no hitter, they are looking really good right now to cover the -1.5 RL at +130.

[golfman26]

Thanks for the pic hopefully I'll be 2-0 for the season.

[stikymess]

Nice job today Iced. Tailed with Pitt, I remembered the Cubs struggles with them last year. Love Oakland late Cahill is solid, hopefully he gets off to a great start. Keep it up.

[golfman26]

no hitter is over

[Iced]

Thanks golfman and stiky.

Josh Johnson had 6.2 innings of quality pitching and the relief pitcher struck out Scott Hairston to end the sixth. Hopefully the bullpen can finish off strong. The Marlins are up 5-2 in the bottom of the 7th -- meaning the Mets only have six outs left to catch up.

Blue Jays still up 10-0 in the sixth.

[GonzosDirtyTrail]

Tailing on the two night picks. I like your thinking there.

[Iced]

Tailing on the two night picks. I like your thinking there.

Marlins are winning 5-2 in the bottom of the 8th. The Mets have 3 outs left and the Marlins can even give them one run and the -1.5 RL will still be good. An insurance run or two here in the bottom of the 8th wouldn't hurt either.
Blue Jays are winning 10-3 in the 7th, barring any disaster, they should stick with the win.

[golfman26]

That home run just helped.

[Jay Price]

Good start Iced! BOL

[Iced]

Friday, April 1, 2011
(1x) Houston Astros (+1 RL) +172 ----- PUSH
(1x) Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) +163 ----- WIN (+1.63x)
(1x) Texas Rangers (ML) +112 ----- WIN (+1.12x)
(1x) Florida Marlins (-1.5 RL) +130 --- WIN (+1.3x)

Adding:
(1x) Toronto Blue Jays (ML) -119 ----- WIN (+1x)

Easy wins from the Marlins and Blue Birds for a cool +2.3 units.

Plays already in progress:

Adding:
(1x) San Francisco Giants (ML) +110

adding:
(1x) Oakland Athletics (ML) -110

2011 MLB Record: 5-1-1 (+5.05 units)