Opening game home favorite chase, 246-7 last year

**therizz** · 06-19-11, 10:17 PM

On3,
It looks like you updated the percentages based off my recent post. These may be a little different the way you are running it in that I am only playing based off the opening lines this year as opposed to watching where the line ends like you are. Probably not that significant in that the Game 1's have done absolutely horribly this year (10-17 now after CIN loss in G1 and 2). This was definitly not true when I backtested this with the filter plays hitting between 65-70% over the last 4 years or so..... Keep thinking they are going to turn it around, hopefully it happens soon as the G1 losses are dragging us down this year pumping big numbers into our labby lines, that have to be split, and taking more wins for us to reclaim our profits.

Also, just wanted to mention that last year I only played the IL games that met the o/u filter (which avoided 2 or 3 losses) for official system plays. Seems it isn't really making a difference this year so far. You may also want to check out Cisco's home favorite system. He has started posting it here on SBR as well and it is gold!

**on3** · 06-19-11, 11:37 PM

System record 100-3*
*BOS (C) vs. tampa bay bet still pending (will be played 8/16)

units: +32

Game 1 win = 57
Game 2 win = 32
Game 3 win = 11

6/20

#103 -- san diego @ BOS -180 (A) o/u 9.5
#104 -- houston @ TEX -170 (A) o/u 10.5

Labby Line

38-47-33-40
48-48-41-53
26-23-x-x

BOS to win 58
TEX to win 60

white sox, brewers, and dodgers are all fringe plays. will update tomorrow

**BSUWADDY** · 06-20-11, 04:04 PM

CWS

I like the White Sox a lot in this series--they have the best interleague record since play began, they have been playing much better recently at home, and have won 4 series in a row vs. the Cubs. And as I've said all year--you can pretty much chase/fade the Cubs all year and make money. Outside of a 2 game series vs the Marlins, they haven't swept a series all year, and have not won 3 games in a row all year. I'm a huge Cubs fan, and while they are getting a little healthier, they just are not a good team by any stretch.

Thanks On3 for the picks--BOL tonight!

**on3** · 06-20-11, 05:04 PM

CWS (A) to win 40

**gofightingirish** · 06-20-11, 05:10 PM

thanks on3....good luck to all

**windwind** · 06-20-11, 08:25 PM

LAD - 150 u/o 7 (a) ?

**on3** · 06-20-11, 10:19 PM

Originally posted by windwind

LAD - 150 u/o 7 (a) ?

sorry, i should have explained this one. the interleague plays are only eligible if the o/u of 9 is met. which is why the CWS series is active (although some have told me the o/u was 8.5 at their books), but at the time of posting i had it at 9.

**on3** · 06-20-11, 10:22 PM

2-1

System record 102-3*
*BOS (C) vs. tampa bay bet still pending (will be played 8/16)

units: +35

Game 1 win = 59
Game 2 win = 32
Game 3 win = 11

6/21

#105 -- chicago @ CWS -135 (B)

Labby Line

x-27-13-30
48-48-41-83
26-23-x-x

CWS to win 83

**on3** · 06-21-11, 12:26 AM

lets get em tomorrow fellas. stupid cubbies.

**on3** · 06-21-11, 11:05 PM

lets go sox, dont mess this up.

**on3** · 06-21-11, 11:35 PM

1-0

System record 103-3*
*BOS (C) vs. tampa bay bet still pending (will be played 8/16)

units: +39

Game 1 win = 59
Game 2 win = 33
Game 3 win = 11

6/22

no plays

Labby Line

x-27-13-30
48-48-41-x
26-23-x-x

reshuffle

30-30-30-30
22-22-22-22
25-x-x-23

lets get em on thursday.

**on3** · 06-23-11, 12:05 AM

will update tomorrow evening for friday's plays. no plays on 6/23.

**Brian891** · 06-23-11, 12:12 AM

good luck! seems as though its still going very well for u!

**on3** · 06-23-11, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by Brian891

good luck! seems as though its still going very well for u!

we try and keep money management just as important as the plays themselves. when you stay pretty strict with the amounts you are betting, good things happen

**gofightingirish** · 06-23-11, 09:23 PM

the over under filter will definitely come into play tomorrow......good luck to us all

**dlunc3** · 06-23-11, 09:32 PM

on3, great job with this system! things are looking great...

quick question, though the system appears to be doing well, it does not seem like the profits will compare to last year.. do you know of any reasoning behind this?

**on3** · 06-23-11, 11:32 PM

System record 103-3*
*BOS (C) vs. tampa bay bet still pending (will be played 8/16)

units: +39

Game 1 win = 59
Game 2 win = 33
Game 3 win = 11

6/24

#106 -- oakland @ PHI -155 (A) o/u 9
#107 -- ny mets @ TEX -150 (A) o/u 9

Labby Line

30-30-30-30
22-22-22-22
25-x-x-23

PHI and TEX both to win 60

**on3** · 06-23-11, 11:44 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

on3, great job with this system! things are looking great...

quick question, though the system appears to be doing well, it does not seem like the profits will compare to last year.. do you know of any reasoning behind this?

rizz made a great observation and came up with the conclusion that the road teams over -145 carry more risk, as well as the 2 game series'. that is around 40 plays a season.

last year we averaged 1 loss per 20 series and this year we are getting around 1 loss per 30 series so that is an improvement. i am also running the line a little more conservative than in years past, so that definitely is affecting the year-end total. it is all a work in process and we adjust as we go and we can become more aggressive as the season moves forward into the 2nd half. the 2nd half of the season is when we really start killing it.

so there are several factors. still though, when it is all said and done, i still firmly think we can get to 125+ units this season.

**dlunc3** · 06-24-11, 02:03 PM

thanks for the info on3... another question, what size bankroll are you using doing $44 units? always curious to see the % people use when using labby lines. Thanks and BOL

**gofightingirish** · 06-24-11, 06:44 PM

why not detroit? it meets over under filter?

**gofightingirish** · 06-24-11, 06:59 PM

my bad....fell below the watermark....but did open up at -145....wish I woulda pulled the trigger....oh well its just money

**gofightingirish** · 06-24-11, 07:02 PM

also still kinda confused because in the first post explaining this chase system it went by opening line not closing line

**therizz** · 06-24-11, 08:36 PM

GFI,
The truth is you can do it either way you want. Last year we used closing lines. So the numbers quoted for last year were using that criteria. I have switched to strictly opening lines this year as I often don't have access to watch them like On3 has been able to do over here. I did backtest it and it is pretty much the same either way. The records are nearly identical this year.

One of the big criteria in less units won this year is the much lower than average winning percentage thus far in game 1's. This is just throwing a lot more onto our lines. The more we have to split them up to keep the plays managable the less profit they are going to spit out, but it is worth it to not expose a huge portion of your bankroll if we go on a bad losing streak.

**on3** · 06-25-11, 03:55 AM

2-0
nice.

System record 105-3*
*BOS (C) vs. tampa bay bet still pending (will be played 8/16)

units: +45

Game 1 win = 61
Game 2 win = 33
Game 3 win = 11

6/25

no plays

Labby Line

x-x-x-x
22-22-22-22
25-x-x-23

**on3** · 06-25-11, 03:57 AM

Originally posted by dlunc3

thanks for the info on3... another question, what size bankroll are you using doing $44 units? always curious to see the % people use when using labby lines. Thanks and BOL

$20 units was what we used to start, and what i'm using to track the units for the year.

**atari5200** · 06-25-11, 10:37 PM

Just stopping in to one of my favorite threads on sbr to keep wishing you guys the best. I followed this system for almost 3 months and did very well with an aggressive labby. I had too many systems on the go my BR took a hit when they all started to tank a couple weeks ago.

I've got a new thread where I make only 1 play a night from here on out until the end of the season.

I'm 7-0 for a perfect week. Hope to see some more familiar faces stop by and check it out.
http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...-play-day.html

**dlunc3** · 06-25-11, 10:40 PM

Originally posted by on3

$20 units was what we used to start, and what i'm using to track the units for the year.

thanks for the response... what size roll did you start with while doing $20 units? $1,000?

**xxplosive** · 06-25-11, 11:57 PM

Okay guys I want to try this out for the rest of the season but don't understand the labby lines. I get that if I'm trying to win 100 the first game I set my bet to win 100. If that loses I set my second bet to win 100+1st Bet Wager Amount, if my second bet loses the 3rd bet will be To Win: 100+1st Bet Wager Amount + 2nd Bet Wager Amount? If I am missing out on something please tell me. Otherwise this looks really cool and how what type of BRM do you suggest?

**on3** · 06-26-11, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

thanks for the response... what size roll did you start with while doing $20 units? $1,000?

Yes. And that has almost doubled and we are not even half way through the season.

**xxplosive** · 06-26-11, 12:25 PM

any plays today...

**therizz** · 06-26-11, 06:12 PM

No plays today. xxplosive, the money management strategy you are describing is martingale not labouchere. You can look it up on google for more explanation or just follow the lines On3 is posting here. His base unit is 20 so if you are trying to win 100 just mulitply the amounts he is playing by 5. I would recommend not setting your base unit much higher than 2% or so of your bankroll to protect against losing streaks. So if you want to play with a base play of 100 I would recommend a 5k bankroll depending on how comfortable you are with the risk.

**xxplosive** · 06-26-11, 08:02 PM

I'm real confused about this whole labby system. I know you write four numbers down and the cross off the first and last. Are on3's numbers what we insert in as to-win or the wager amount. Also wont it be different if we are not playing on the same book? Sorry if this is a dumb question. i read up on google and this seems to be a popular roulette startegy

**mantorras77** · 06-26-11, 10:41 PM

Looks like it's Arizona for 6/27 (-164) (O/U 9)

watch alert on San Diego

**on3** · 06-26-11, 11:42 PM

System record 105-3*
*BOS (C) vs. tampa bay bet still pending (will be played 8/16)

units: +45

Game 1 win = 61
Game 2 win = 33
Game 3 win = 11

6/27

#108 -- cleveland @ ARI -176 (A) o/u 9
#109 -- toronto @ DET -162 (A) o/u 9.5

Labby Line
w/ new units and slight reshuffle

22-22-13-13
22-22-13-13
25-13-13-23

ARI and DET both to win 35

**on3** · 06-26-11, 11:50 PM

Originally posted by xxplosive

I'm real confused about this whole labby system. I know you write four numbers down and the cross off the first and last. Are on3's numbers what we insert in as to-win or the wager amount. Also wont it be different if we are not playing on the same book? Sorry if this is a dumb question. i read up on google and this seems to be a popular roulette startegy

the amounts i list are TO WIN. and yes, your numbers will be slightly different based on your book's numbers, but not by much. so unless you want to recalculate your labby lines every day, you can follow me and deal with the $1-$2 variation.

reading through this thread, you will see that im running a modified labby and not actually adding the number to the end of my line, but instead adding it TO the end number (does that make sense?). also, when the lines get fat, i may only use one of the numbers on my line instead of adding up two.

hopefully by following and checking in everyday, you can get a better grasp on the labby method.