Opening Day Line Projections

[DuncHen22]

I'm trying to project opening series lines. I've made 2 so far but it's a bit time consuming since it's my first try. I just wanted to see if anyone else has tried and/or what you think of mine.

I'm using a system based off what is outlined in the book "Conquering Risk" (can be found in the SBR Store). I am also trying a system based off the team's WARP. For simplicity's sake, I'll call the one from the book "System 1" and the one off the WARP "System 2."

Oh, and I'm basing the starting lineups and starting pitchers off Baseball Prospectus' depth charts.

System 1:
DET @ NYY -163 (O/U 11.5)
SD @ STL -139 (O/U 7.5)
SD @ STL -176 (O/U 7)

System 2:
NYY -164
STL -136
STL -162

(System 2 does not predict totals).

Thoughts? Comments? Input?


EDIT: See post 3 for explanation of line change.

[gambling god]

Post the confirmed starters for Thursday i will give you a projected line so far i have Angels -131 at Kanas City with Weaver versus Hochevar

[DuncHen22]

DET v NYY will be Verlander v Sabathia

I'll have to redo the SD v STL game though because I had Latos in and I just read he's out and the starter will be Stauffer. Carpenter will be pitching for the Cards.

EDIT:

With Stauffer in, System 1's projection goes up to -176 (O/U 7) for STL. System 2 goes up to just -162, but as of now I trust System 1 more as it is proven.

[DuncHen22]

Hmmm.... I got LAA -110... Any idea as to why the discrepency? You mind sharing your projected lineups? Here's mine:

LAA:
Bourjos
Abreu
Hunter
Morales
Wells
Kendrick
Callaspo
Mathis
Aybar

KC:
Cain
Aviles
Butler
Ka'aihue
Gordon
Fancoeur
Escobar
Kendall
Getz

EDIT: I think I may have figured it out... do you take into account home field advantage? If I take that away I get -129.

[DuncHen22]

Here's a few more:

ATL @ WAS -141 (o/u 11)
MIL@ CIN -104 (o/u 10.5)
SF @ LAD +100 (o/u 7.5)
LAA @ KC -110 (o/u 10)
CWS @ CLE -114 (o/u 10)
SEA@ OAK -103 (o.u 5.5)

I have less confidence in NL vs AL, and I have more confidence in the ML than the totals. Keep in mind, I'm putting these up just for discussion. And I haven't looked into injuries at all other than Padres (took out Latos) and Giants (took out Wilson and Ross) so everything is based off depth charts and projected #1 starters.

[socalaaron]

Whats the pitching match for Seattle at Oakland?

[DuncHen22]

Whats the pitching match for Seattle at Oakland?

Hernandez v Cahill

[Ice House]

A's vs Mariners should be under whatever the total is .... King Felix is filthy and the Mariners cannot be counted on to score many runs

[jds07v]

might just be me, but some of those totals seem a little high.

Are you trying to project what you think vegas will put out for lines, or are those the #'s you came up through your model?

[gambling god]

Hmmm.... I got LAA -110... Any idea as to why the discrepency? You mind sharing your projected lineups? Here's mine:

LAA:
Bourjos
Abreu
Hunter
Morales
Wells
Kendrick
Callaspo
Mathis
Aybar

KC:
Cain
Aviles
Butler
Ka'aihue
Gordon
Fancoeur
Escobar
Kendall
Getz

EDIT: I think I may have figured it out... do you take into account home field advantage? If I take that away I get -129.

Scratch Morales from Angels and add Trumbo scratch Kendall from Royals add Pena and factor in K.c will be the worst team in the American Leauge after losing their ace pitcher and like the Pirates for the last 17 years they are just garbage each and every year.The only reason this line is not higher is because of Morales injury.3 factors in baseball is starting pitcher which is 50% of the overall line,25% to the better team overall and 25% to the bullpen.Home field means nothing when you are as god awful as the Pirates and Royals because any joe blow knows bad teams just find a way to lose over and over again just like the Pirates for their 18th straight season and it's called ownership without a clue.When other pitchers are confirmed on paper i will add.

[Ice House]

its not called ownership without a clue its called (either not having or not being willing to spend money)

without a salary cap these small market teams can't compete with the Redsox and Yankees.....

[DuncHen22]

Scratch Morales from Angels and add Trumbo scratch Kendall from Royals add Pena and factor in K.c will be the worst team in the American Leauge after losing their ace pitcher and like the Pirates for the last 17 years they are just garbage each and every year.The only reason this line is not higher is because of Morales injury.3 factors in baseball is starting pitcher which is 50% of the overall line,25% to the better team overall and 25% to the bullpen.Home field means nothing when you are as god awful as the Pirates and Royals because any joe blow knows bad teams just find a way to lose over and over again just like the Pirates for their 18th straight season and it's called ownership without a clue.When other pitchers are confirmed on paper i will add.

Thanks!

[DuncHen22]

might just be me, but some of those totals seem a little high.

Are you trying to project what you think vegas will put out for lines, or are those the #'s you came up through your model?

These are just the projected runs scored through the model and I rounded to the nearest .5 to show what the "fair market price" would be according to this model. I agree that some seem off and I'm not confident in them because this is a new system for me. I got the model from a book and it's been tested but I can't be sure I have everything 100% right. So take these with a grain of salt. I just posted them because I am excited about the new season and wanted to start a discussion.

[jds07v]

ATL, KC, CIN, NYY just looked a run too high for me. Just the fact that it is opening day is the only reason I'm saying this. The pitchers are usually ahead of the bats this time of year, and each team will be throwing out what they believe to be their ace.

Having said that, I will probably feel more comfortable with a side in these games, depending of course on the actual line. I would like to get Verlander at a juicy +155

And I think the SF/LAD game comes in at a healthy 7.5 or 7, so you are right on the money there

[DuncHen22]

I personally think Detroit will be the side to pick in their game, if nothing else but for value. Seeing as it's the very first game and it's the Yankees at home, I think the public will be drooling all over them.

I'll just do this for a while and see how it corresponds to actual lines and the final outcomes.

I think one problem may be the park factors I'm using, which are based off last year (I got them from ESPN). I'll have to go back and check but it's definitely part of the problem. For example, the d'backs v rockies game is projected to have a total of 18!! I know it's a mile high but that's just ridiculous. Without the park factor it drops down to 10.

[gambling god]

its not called ownership without a clue its called (either not having or not being willing to spend money)

without a salary cap these small market teams can't compete with the Redsox and Yankees.....

Small market is the most overrated excuse when it comes to baseball and maybe if these clueless wonders stopped getting raped year after year of their talent they would have more of a following so they derserve to be a small market and hopefully go bankrupt sooner rather than later.Take a page out of the Twins and get a clue.

[gambling god]

MY projected Thursday lines:

Atlanta -131 vs Washington

Detroit vs NyYankees -158

Milwaukee vs Cincinatti -121

Losangeles Angels -131 vs Kansas City

San Diego vs St.louis -143

San Francisco -121 vs LA Dodgers

Goodluck