Brewers @ Astros
Line:
Mil -111
Houston +101
O/U 10
Records:
Mil 16-13 (+3.4 units) – Over/Under 12-16
Houston 14-16 (-0.3 units) – Over/Under 12-18
Trends:
The Brewers are 9-7 on the road this year
The Brewers are 9-9 vs. divisional opponents
The Brewers are 6-8 at night
The Brewers are 10-11 against right handed starters
The Brewers are 7-5 after a loss
The Brewers are 5-2 when playing against a team with a losing record
The Brewers have gone under in 8 of 15 road games
The Brewers are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games against Houston
The Astros are 10-9 at night
The Astros are 2-3 vs. left-handed starters
The Astros are 7-8 against teams with a winning record
The Astros are 7-5 at home
The Astros are 6-6 vs. divisional opponents
The Astros have gone over in 7 of 12 home games
The Astros are 8-4 over their last 12
Weather:
Tonight the weather figures to be gorgeous. 80 degrees and clear with the winds blowing in around 12 mph. Roof is likely to be closed regardless.
Team vs. Team:
Recent Results:
7-4 Houston
5-4 Houston
9-1 Mil
6-0 Mil
14-2 Mil
5-3 Mil
9-7 Mil
6-4 Houston
7-4 Mil
5-4 Mil
The Astros are 16-18 against the Brewers over the last 3 seasons.
The Astros are 9-7 at home vs. the Brewers over the last 3 seasons.
MIL Pitching:
Manny Para has struggled mightily this season overall and especially on the road. Parra has a whip of 1.775 in his 23.7 innings of work this season and a WHIP of 2.125 in his 8 innings on the road. The young lefty is only averaging 4.7 innings a start on the season but he’s found a way to get himself a 3-2 record.
In his most recent start Parra lasted 5.3 innings against the Marlins and held them to just two earned runs despite allowing nine men to reach base against him. Manny has struggled with his control of late having walked 10 in his last 14.3 innings on the mound.
Looking inside of Parra’s numbers you see that he’s been hit around pretty good this season. His LD% is at almost 22%, but he has had decent success with getting the ground ball which could prove beneficial tonight against a team that knocked 5 out of the yard a day ago. Parra has been able to strike batters out at a rate of 7.23 per 9, but again, he needs to limit the walks. Manny has been a FB/Curve ball pitcher throwing 60% heat and about 24% curve balls. Manny will throw a change from time to time and a split FB once every 10 pitches or so.
MIL Bats:
The Brewers bats have been cool to start the season; they are only hitting .247 as a team with an OBP of .314. On the road the Brewers have been slightly worst recording a .237 BA and an OPS 8 points lower than their overall percentage. Scoring has been at its worst for the Brewers vs. right handed starters and at night, each of those variables will be in play this evening.
Over the last 7 days Hart, Fielder and Braun have each hit over .333 while Cameron, Hardy, Weeks, and Kendall have each struggled mightily over that stretch.
HOUSTON Pitching:
Brandon Backe has been almost as bad as Parra this season. Backe has an ERA of 4.65 which is borderline awful, but he leaps a bit past horrendous with his WHIP of 1.774. Brandon is 1-3 on the young season going 5.2 innings per start. The right-handers big problem has been the walk; he has allowed 20 free passes in ’08 and 9 in his last 15 innings of work.
Backe has had 3 starts vs. The Brewers and he has an ERA of 2.41 with a WHIP of 1.285. In his 3 starts vs. the Brewers his teams record is 1-2 and the under is 3-0.
The Numbers (Backe vs. the Brewers):
Houston +135 @ Mil – 5.7 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 0 K. Result: 3-5
Houston -105 @ Mil – 6.3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K. Result: 2-3
Houston -150 vs. Mil – 6.7 IP, 0ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K. Result: 7-0
Backe’s LD numbers are similar to Parra’s at about 21.4% and he’s been giving up fly balls about 43% of the time. Back likes to mix his pitches up. None of them are above average but he throws his FB 53.9% of the time, his slider 23% of the time, his curve 12.5% of the time, and his change about 11%.
HOUSTON Bats:
The Astros bats have not been great overall, only batting .246 as a team, but they have absolutely raked at home posting a .279 team BA and 5.7 runs per contest. One problem tonight could be the lack of success the Stros have seen vs. lefties; they only hit .238 as a team against them. The good news for Stros fans is the fact that Backe has performed well at home this season. He only has 12 innings worth of data, but over that term he has recorded an outstanding ERA of 2.25 and has only given up nine knocks.
In his recent starts Backe has been pretty bad. Brandon has come in as a dog of +135 or greater in each of his last 3 outings (Lohse, Peavy, Myers) and the only game his squad managed to win was one where the Stros bats were able to get to Jake Peavy. BB actually pitched well in the game, but in his start vs. Lohse he had a WHIP of 2.00 and in his start at Philly he didn’t even make it to the 4th inning.
Overall this offense is 3rd last in the league in hits per game and they are last in the league in walks per game. The way to get to Parra is to wait for him to make mistakes. His stuff isn’t awful, but he also doesn’t have full command of it just yet. The Astros bats can exploit him if they can be patient at the plate, something they have not been this season.
Tejada has been the hot bat for the Stros batting .360 in his last 25 Abs with a HR and 4 RBI.
Batter vs. Pitcher:
Cameron, Hart, and Kendall have hit Backe well, but this roster hasn’t had a lot of success vs. the right hander. Hall and Braun have the two Mil HR’s off of Brandon while Prince Fielder is 1 for 5 with a walk and a K.
Parra has not faced this Houston lineup.
Injuries:
Mil
LHP Chris Capuano Left elbow 15-day DL (3/21)
LHP Randy Choate Left hand 15-day DL (3/21)
RHP Yovani Gallardo Right knee 15-day DL (5/2)
Hou
RHP Felipe Paulino Right arm 15-day DL (3/19)
LHP Wandy Rodriguez Left groin 15-day DL (4/20)
Ball Park:
This park favors right handed power hitters more so than it does the lefties. Ad
Umpire:
Today Jerry Layne will be behind the plate. Layne has been a huge unders ump this season as 6 of 7 have gone under the total.
Results of Layne’s contests:
Cain @ Lowe – 5 runs, 7 walks, 20 hits. Result: Under
Lannan @ Lohse – 3 runs, 5 walks, 13 hits. Result: Under
Parra @ Figueroa – 6 runs, 5 walks, 10 hits. Result: Under
Wakefield @ Byrd – 8 runs, 10 walks, 21 hits. Result: Under
Kennedy @ Burres – 6 runs, 12 walks, 15 hits. Result: Under
Saunders @ Masterson – 12 runs, 12 walks, 19 hits. Result: Over
Arroyo @ Wellemeyer – 7 runs, 8 walks, 20 hits. Result: Under
Last year Layne proved to be a fair umpire in limited duty behind the plate.
Bull Pen:
Brewers: The Brew Crew have been let down by their pen this season. Overall the BP ERA is 4.76 and a WHIP over 1.60. They have been a bit better on the road, but the era is still over 4.20 and the WHIP is still awful at 1.573. The strength of this pen has been their ability to get strike outs; they’re averaging about one per frame.
Astros: The Stros BP has been serviceable this year recording an ERA of 4.30 and a WHIP of 1.430. Those numbers aren’t where you want them, but this pen was not expected to be brilliant in ‘08. The Astros have had a big problem closing out games, they have actually only made good on 50% of their home save opportunities.
Line moves:
This line has moved towards the Brewers while wagerline says the public is on the Stros.
My thoughts:
Close to a pick, this line seems to be about right. Parra has struggled with walks, but the Stros lack of patients could play right into the lefty’s hands. Layne has been an unders umpire although his games have seen a lot of walks. Imo this line is right on and this should be a good game.
Pick:
none
Line:
Mil -111
Houston +101
O/U 10
Records:
Mil 16-13 (+3.4 units) – Over/Under 12-16
Houston 14-16 (-0.3 units) – Over/Under 12-18
Trends:
The Brewers are 9-7 on the road this year
The Brewers are 9-9 vs. divisional opponents
The Brewers are 6-8 at night
The Brewers are 10-11 against right handed starters
The Brewers are 7-5 after a loss
The Brewers are 5-2 when playing against a team with a losing record
The Brewers have gone under in 8 of 15 road games
The Brewers are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games against Houston
The Astros are 10-9 at night
The Astros are 2-3 vs. left-handed starters
The Astros are 7-8 against teams with a winning record
The Astros are 7-5 at home
The Astros are 6-6 vs. divisional opponents
The Astros have gone over in 7 of 12 home games
The Astros are 8-4 over their last 12
Weather:
Tonight the weather figures to be gorgeous. 80 degrees and clear with the winds blowing in around 12 mph. Roof is likely to be closed regardless.
Team vs. Team:
Recent Results:
7-4 Houston
5-4 Houston
9-1 Mil
6-0 Mil
14-2 Mil
5-3 Mil
9-7 Mil
6-4 Houston
7-4 Mil
5-4 Mil
The Astros are 16-18 against the Brewers over the last 3 seasons.
The Astros are 9-7 at home vs. the Brewers over the last 3 seasons.
MIL Pitching:
Manny Para has struggled mightily this season overall and especially on the road. Parra has a whip of 1.775 in his 23.7 innings of work this season and a WHIP of 2.125 in his 8 innings on the road. The young lefty is only averaging 4.7 innings a start on the season but he’s found a way to get himself a 3-2 record.
In his most recent start Parra lasted 5.3 innings against the Marlins and held them to just two earned runs despite allowing nine men to reach base against him. Manny has struggled with his control of late having walked 10 in his last 14.3 innings on the mound.
Looking inside of Parra’s numbers you see that he’s been hit around pretty good this season. His LD% is at almost 22%, but he has had decent success with getting the ground ball which could prove beneficial tonight against a team that knocked 5 out of the yard a day ago. Parra has been able to strike batters out at a rate of 7.23 per 9, but again, he needs to limit the walks. Manny has been a FB/Curve ball pitcher throwing 60% heat and about 24% curve balls. Manny will throw a change from time to time and a split FB once every 10 pitches or so.
MIL Bats:
The Brewers bats have been cool to start the season; they are only hitting .247 as a team with an OBP of .314. On the road the Brewers have been slightly worst recording a .237 BA and an OPS 8 points lower than their overall percentage. Scoring has been at its worst for the Brewers vs. right handed starters and at night, each of those variables will be in play this evening.
Over the last 7 days Hart, Fielder and Braun have each hit over .333 while Cameron, Hardy, Weeks, and Kendall have each struggled mightily over that stretch.
HOUSTON Pitching:
Brandon Backe has been almost as bad as Parra this season. Backe has an ERA of 4.65 which is borderline awful, but he leaps a bit past horrendous with his WHIP of 1.774. Brandon is 1-3 on the young season going 5.2 innings per start. The right-handers big problem has been the walk; he has allowed 20 free passes in ’08 and 9 in his last 15 innings of work.
Backe has had 3 starts vs. The Brewers and he has an ERA of 2.41 with a WHIP of 1.285. In his 3 starts vs. the Brewers his teams record is 1-2 and the under is 3-0.
The Numbers (Backe vs. the Brewers):
Houston +135 @ Mil – 5.7 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 0 K. Result: 3-5
Houston -105 @ Mil – 6.3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K. Result: 2-3
Houston -150 vs. Mil – 6.7 IP, 0ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K. Result: 7-0
Backe’s LD numbers are similar to Parra’s at about 21.4% and he’s been giving up fly balls about 43% of the time. Back likes to mix his pitches up. None of them are above average but he throws his FB 53.9% of the time, his slider 23% of the time, his curve 12.5% of the time, and his change about 11%.
HOUSTON Bats:
The Astros bats have not been great overall, only batting .246 as a team, but they have absolutely raked at home posting a .279 team BA and 5.7 runs per contest. One problem tonight could be the lack of success the Stros have seen vs. lefties; they only hit .238 as a team against them. The good news for Stros fans is the fact that Backe has performed well at home this season. He only has 12 innings worth of data, but over that term he has recorded an outstanding ERA of 2.25 and has only given up nine knocks.
In his recent starts Backe has been pretty bad. Brandon has come in as a dog of +135 or greater in each of his last 3 outings (Lohse, Peavy, Myers) and the only game his squad managed to win was one where the Stros bats were able to get to Jake Peavy. BB actually pitched well in the game, but in his start vs. Lohse he had a WHIP of 2.00 and in his start at Philly he didn’t even make it to the 4th inning.
Overall this offense is 3rd last in the league in hits per game and they are last in the league in walks per game. The way to get to Parra is to wait for him to make mistakes. His stuff isn’t awful, but he also doesn’t have full command of it just yet. The Astros bats can exploit him if they can be patient at the plate, something they have not been this season.
Tejada has been the hot bat for the Stros batting .360 in his last 25 Abs with a HR and 4 RBI.
Batter vs. Pitcher:
Cameron, Hart, and Kendall have hit Backe well, but this roster hasn’t had a lot of success vs. the right hander. Hall and Braun have the two Mil HR’s off of Brandon while Prince Fielder is 1 for 5 with a walk and a K.
Parra has not faced this Houston lineup.
Injuries:
Mil
LHP Chris Capuano Left elbow 15-day DL (3/21)
LHP Randy Choate Left hand 15-day DL (3/21)
RHP Yovani Gallardo Right knee 15-day DL (5/2)
Hou
RHP Felipe Paulino Right arm 15-day DL (3/19)
LHP Wandy Rodriguez Left groin 15-day DL (4/20)
Ball Park:
This park favors right handed power hitters more so than it does the lefties. Ad
Umpire:
Today Jerry Layne will be behind the plate. Layne has been a huge unders ump this season as 6 of 7 have gone under the total.
Results of Layne’s contests:
Cain @ Lowe – 5 runs, 7 walks, 20 hits. Result: Under
Lannan @ Lohse – 3 runs, 5 walks, 13 hits. Result: Under
Parra @ Figueroa – 6 runs, 5 walks, 10 hits. Result: Under
Wakefield @ Byrd – 8 runs, 10 walks, 21 hits. Result: Under
Kennedy @ Burres – 6 runs, 12 walks, 15 hits. Result: Under
Saunders @ Masterson – 12 runs, 12 walks, 19 hits. Result: Over
Arroyo @ Wellemeyer – 7 runs, 8 walks, 20 hits. Result: Under
Last year Layne proved to be a fair umpire in limited duty behind the plate.
Bull Pen:
Brewers: The Brew Crew have been let down by their pen this season. Overall the BP ERA is 4.76 and a WHIP over 1.60. They have been a bit better on the road, but the era is still over 4.20 and the WHIP is still awful at 1.573. The strength of this pen has been their ability to get strike outs; they’re averaging about one per frame.
Astros: The Stros BP has been serviceable this year recording an ERA of 4.30 and a WHIP of 1.430. Those numbers aren’t where you want them, but this pen was not expected to be brilliant in ‘08. The Astros have had a big problem closing out games, they have actually only made good on 50% of their home save opportunities.
Line moves:
This line has moved towards the Brewers while wagerline says the public is on the Stros.
My thoughts:
Close to a pick, this line seems to be about right. Parra has struggled with walks, but the Stros lack of patients could play right into the lefty’s hands. Layne has been an unders umpire although his games have seen a lot of walks. Imo this line is right on and this should be a good game.
Pick:
none
