Everything you need to know...CWS/Tor
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Line:
White Sox +110
Tor -118
Over/Under 8.5
Records:
White Sox: 14-12 – 13-13 O/U (+2.2 units)
Blue Jays: 12-17 – 9-18 O/U (-8.1 units)
Trends:
Toronto is 6-4 (+1.5 units) at home vs. the White Sox over the last 3 season.
Tor is 8-8 overall against the Sox over the last 3 seasons.
Buehrle’s Team record is 7-2 (+6.1 units) in his starts vs. Toronto.
Toronto is 5-7 at home.
Toronto is 1-5 vs. left handed starters.
Toronto is 6-16 in night games (-13.2 units)
Toronto is 2-7 when the total is 8-8.5
Toronto is 1-2 as a home fav of (-125)-(-150)
Toronto is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games
Toronto games have gone under in 5 of their last 5
Toronto games have gone under in 4 of their last 5 at home
CWS are 9-8 vs. right-handed starters (+1.6 units)
CWS are 5-10 in night games (-6.1 units)
CWS are 6-4 after a loss (+2.1 units)
CWS are 1-2 when the total is 8-8.5
CWS are 2-4 as a road dog of (+100)-(+125)
CWS are 1-6 when following a day off
CWS games have gone under in 4 of the last 5
CWS games have gone under in 4 of the last 5 on the road
CWS games have gone under in 6 of the last 7 vs. Toronto
Weather:
Tonight they expect wind and rain, but the dome should keep most of it out.
Team vs. Team:
Recent results
4-1 Tor
2-0 CWS
4-3 CWS
4-3 Tor
9-3 Tor
3-0 CWS
2-0 Tor
7-3 Tor
7-1 CWS
6-4 CWS
In 2007 the Jays only hit .255 off of White Sox pitching which was 22 points below the league average. Even worse, Toronto was last in the majors in OPS against the Sox. What kept their season series from being an embarrassment was the fact that they managed a 2.36 ERA against Chicago which was 2nd in the league vs. the Sox. In 61 innings the Blue Jays only allowed 45 hits to Chicago while striking out 61.
As we’ve noted, the White Sox bats really struggled against the team they’ll see tonight; their team BA was only .205 and their OPS was a league worst .559.
Batter vs. Pitcher:
Swisher, Dye, and Thome have each connected on HR’s vs. Marcum, but the Sox roster is only hitting .226 off of Marcum as a whole.
The Blue Jays bats have a total of 164 Abs against Mark and Stewart, Wells, Rios, and Hill have connected for long balls against him. Vernon Wells is batting a ridiculous .500 against the Lefty in 26 plate appearances, but he and Stewart are the only guys who have had a lot of success vs. Buehrle.
CWS Pitching:
Mark Buehrle has had pretty good success vs. the Jays in the past posting a record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.27 with a WHIP at 1.152. Each of Buehrle’s last 3 starts vs. Tor has gone under. In 2007 Mark had two starts vs. Tor and each ended at 2-0; the teams split. The total in each of the last 3 Buehrle vs. Tor starts as been 8.5. In his last two outings vs. the Blue Jays Mark has been opposed by Roy Halladay; in each of those starts Mark went 8 innings. Over his last 5 starts vs. the Jays Mark Buehrle has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in any outing.
The White Sox bullpen has performed very well this year, they have am era of 3.33 overall but an even more impressive 2.39 on the road in 37.7 IP.
This season Mark Buehrle is giving up his career average 20.4% LD while his GB% is slightly up. In 28 innings Mark has given up 38 hits, 3 HR, allowed 8 free passes, and Ked 16. The left-hander has shown an unusually high reliance on his cutter this year going to it 34.2% of the time while only throwing the straight FB 32.6% of the time. Marks percentage of change ups thrown and curve balls is down while he is going to the slider a little more than he did in ’07.
CWS Bats:
The White Sox have a team BA of .249 vs. right-handed starters so far this season and an OBP of .326. The team has really struggled at the plate on the road and over their last 7 games where they are only batting .233. Even with those struggles, the Sox still enter the game as the 2nd highest scoring team in the league at 5.0 runs per game; then again, they are 2nd worst in hitting at 8.1 hits per contest. The Sox actually have less total hits than anyone in baseball.
TOR Pitching:
Shaun Marcum is 1-0 vs. the White sox with an era of 3.27 (same as Buehrle’s vs. the Jays) and his WHIP sits at 0.818. In each of his starts vs. the Sox the total has been set at 9 and each game has gone under. In one outing the Jays beat Javier Vazquez 4-1 and in the other they defeated John Danks 4-3.
Marcum has a 3.24 era on the season but it’s a bit higher at home at 3.66. Despite the slightly higher home era, he has shown dominant stuff totaling 18Ks, and only allowing 14 hits in this 19.7 home innings pitcher. Marcum has pitched in 2 unders and no overs in his two home starts.
Given his impressive numbers, I am a little surprised to see that Marcum is giving up around 20% LD and 15.2% HR/FB. In ’07 Shaun only allowed 17.7% LD and I suspect his numbers this year will finish in a similar position. The righty is giving up less fly balls while inducing 6% more ground balls this year than he did last. Marcum goes to a variety of pitches; he has thrown the FB 40.6% of the time, the slider 15.1%, the cutter 15.5%, the curve 9.3%, and the change 19.5% over 507 pitches. His ability to keep hitters off balance is what makes him so tough to score on.
TOR Bats:
The Blue Jay bats have really struggled vs. left handed starters this year sporting a .207 batting average and an OBP of .319. Offensively the Jays really haven’t performed well in any area so far in ’08, but they’ll try to get the bats warmed up against the CWS tonight.
On the season the Jays are the 3rd lowest scoring team in the majors at 4.1 runs a game, but they have found a way to get on base via the walk; Toronto is 2nd in the league in walks.
Bullpen activity:
Chicago White Sox's relievers have pitched 8⅓ innings in the last 3 games.
Toronto Blue Jays's relievers have pitched 2⅔ innings in the last 3 games.
Injuries:
CWS:
1B Paul Konerko is dealing with a sore right hand. Prop Fri (5/1)
2B Danny Richar Left rib 15-day DL (3/22)
TOR:
RHP Casey Janssen Right shoulder 60-day DL (3/17) out for season
RHP Brian Wolfe Right triceps 15-day DL (4/17)
Ball Park:
Rogers Centre, Deep alley ways favor speedy outfielders. The power numbers are down when the roof is shut which it will be tonight. Right handed power hitters thrive more so than lefties.
Umpire:
Crew not announces yet.
Line moves:
At most shops the line has moved over 10 cents in the direction of the White Sox while the line has moved towards the over.
Thoughts:
These two teams have had little recent success scoring on one another and each of these pitchers is more than capable of going deep into a game without being scored upon. Vernon Wells brings his .500 BA in against Mark, but as a whole the Jays offense has been pathetic of late and equally so in their history against Buehrle. The CWS offense is one of the best in baseball, but they have to hit the ball out of the park to score; they are last in the majors in total hits. The White Sox pen has proved more than capable on the road thus far in ’08 while the Blue Jays bullpen has been great at home with an era of 3.30. The pitching should dominate most of the night.
Pick:
Under 8.5
Best lines: Pinny +103, matchbook +110, widely available -105.
Line:
White Sox +110
Tor -118
Over/Under 8.5
Records:
White Sox: 14-12 – 13-13 O/U (+2.2 units)
Blue Jays: 12-17 – 9-18 O/U (-8.1 units)
Trends:
Toronto is 6-4 (+1.5 units) at home vs. the White Sox over the last 3 season.
Tor is 8-8 overall against the Sox over the last 3 seasons.
Buehrle’s Team record is 7-2 (+6.1 units) in his starts vs. Toronto.
Toronto is 5-7 at home.
Toronto is 1-5 vs. left handed starters.
Toronto is 6-16 in night games (-13.2 units)
Toronto is 2-7 when the total is 8-8.5
Toronto is 1-2 as a home fav of (-125)-(-150)
Toronto is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games
Toronto games have gone under in 5 of their last 5
Toronto games have gone under in 4 of their last 5 at home
CWS are 9-8 vs. right-handed starters (+1.6 units)
CWS are 5-10 in night games (-6.1 units)
CWS are 6-4 after a loss (+2.1 units)
CWS are 1-2 when the total is 8-8.5
CWS are 2-4 as a road dog of (+100)-(+125)
CWS are 1-6 when following a day off
CWS games have gone under in 4 of the last 5
CWS games have gone under in 4 of the last 5 on the road
CWS games have gone under in 6 of the last 7 vs. Toronto
Weather:
Tonight they expect wind and rain, but the dome should keep most of it out.
Team vs. Team:
Recent results
4-1 Tor
2-0 CWS
4-3 CWS
4-3 Tor
9-3 Tor
3-0 CWS
2-0 Tor
7-3 Tor
7-1 CWS
6-4 CWS
In 2007 the Jays only hit .255 off of White Sox pitching which was 22 points below the league average. Even worse, Toronto was last in the majors in OPS against the Sox. What kept their season series from being an embarrassment was the fact that they managed a 2.36 ERA against Chicago which was 2nd in the league vs. the Sox. In 61 innings the Blue Jays only allowed 45 hits to Chicago while striking out 61.
As we’ve noted, the White Sox bats really struggled against the team they’ll see tonight; their team BA was only .205 and their OPS was a league worst .559.
Batter vs. Pitcher:
Swisher, Dye, and Thome have each connected on HR’s vs. Marcum, but the Sox roster is only hitting .226 off of Marcum as a whole.
The Blue Jays bats have a total of 164 Abs against Mark and Stewart, Wells, Rios, and Hill have connected for long balls against him. Vernon Wells is batting a ridiculous .500 against the Lefty in 26 plate appearances, but he and Stewart are the only guys who have had a lot of success vs. Buehrle.
CWS Pitching:
Mark Buehrle has had pretty good success vs. the Jays in the past posting a record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.27 with a WHIP at 1.152. Each of Buehrle’s last 3 starts vs. Tor has gone under. In 2007 Mark had two starts vs. Tor and each ended at 2-0; the teams split. The total in each of the last 3 Buehrle vs. Tor starts as been 8.5. In his last two outings vs. the Blue Jays Mark has been opposed by Roy Halladay; in each of those starts Mark went 8 innings. Over his last 5 starts vs. the Jays Mark Buehrle has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in any outing.
The White Sox bullpen has performed very well this year, they have am era of 3.33 overall but an even more impressive 2.39 on the road in 37.7 IP.
This season Mark Buehrle is giving up his career average 20.4% LD while his GB% is slightly up. In 28 innings Mark has given up 38 hits, 3 HR, allowed 8 free passes, and Ked 16. The left-hander has shown an unusually high reliance on his cutter this year going to it 34.2% of the time while only throwing the straight FB 32.6% of the time. Marks percentage of change ups thrown and curve balls is down while he is going to the slider a little more than he did in ’07.
CWS Bats:
The White Sox have a team BA of .249 vs. right-handed starters so far this season and an OBP of .326. The team has really struggled at the plate on the road and over their last 7 games where they are only batting .233. Even with those struggles, the Sox still enter the game as the 2nd highest scoring team in the league at 5.0 runs per game; then again, they are 2nd worst in hitting at 8.1 hits per contest. The Sox actually have less total hits than anyone in baseball.
TOR Pitching:
Shaun Marcum is 1-0 vs. the White sox with an era of 3.27 (same as Buehrle’s vs. the Jays) and his WHIP sits at 0.818. In each of his starts vs. the Sox the total has been set at 9 and each game has gone under. In one outing the Jays beat Javier Vazquez 4-1 and in the other they defeated John Danks 4-3.
Marcum has a 3.24 era on the season but it’s a bit higher at home at 3.66. Despite the slightly higher home era, he has shown dominant stuff totaling 18Ks, and only allowing 14 hits in this 19.7 home innings pitcher. Marcum has pitched in 2 unders and no overs in his two home starts.
Given his impressive numbers, I am a little surprised to see that Marcum is giving up around 20% LD and 15.2% HR/FB. In ’07 Shaun only allowed 17.7% LD and I suspect his numbers this year will finish in a similar position. The righty is giving up less fly balls while inducing 6% more ground balls this year than he did last. Marcum goes to a variety of pitches; he has thrown the FB 40.6% of the time, the slider 15.1%, the cutter 15.5%, the curve 9.3%, and the change 19.5% over 507 pitches. His ability to keep hitters off balance is what makes him so tough to score on.
TOR Bats:
The Blue Jay bats have really struggled vs. left handed starters this year sporting a .207 batting average and an OBP of .319. Offensively the Jays really haven’t performed well in any area so far in ’08, but they’ll try to get the bats warmed up against the CWS tonight.
On the season the Jays are the 3rd lowest scoring team in the majors at 4.1 runs a game, but they have found a way to get on base via the walk; Toronto is 2nd in the league in walks.
Bullpen activity:
Chicago White Sox's relievers have pitched 8⅓ innings in the last 3 games.
Toronto Blue Jays's relievers have pitched 2⅔ innings in the last 3 games.
Injuries:
CWS:
1B Paul Konerko is dealing with a sore right hand. Prop Fri (5/1)
2B Danny Richar Left rib 15-day DL (3/22)
TOR:
RHP Casey Janssen Right shoulder 60-day DL (3/17) out for season
RHP Brian Wolfe Right triceps 15-day DL (4/17)
Ball Park:
Rogers Centre, Deep alley ways favor speedy outfielders. The power numbers are down when the roof is shut which it will be tonight. Right handed power hitters thrive more so than lefties.
Umpire:
Crew not announces yet.
Line moves:
At most shops the line has moved over 10 cents in the direction of the White Sox while the line has moved towards the over.
Thoughts:
These two teams have had little recent success scoring on one another and each of these pitchers is more than capable of going deep into a game without being scored upon. Vernon Wells brings his .500 BA in against Mark, but as a whole the Jays offense has been pathetic of late and equally so in their history against Buehrle. The CWS offense is one of the best in baseball, but they have to hit the ball out of the park to score; they are last in the majors in total hits. The White Sox pen has proved more than capable on the road thus far in ’08 while the Blue Jays bullpen has been great at home with an era of 3.30. The pitching should dominate most of the night.
Pick:
Under 8.5
Best lines: Pinny +103, matchbook +110, widely available -105.
