Sorry the plays aren't up yet, but there is good reason. When I am wrong, I have to admit it. I have spent the last hour running different scenarios for the head-head play, and it appears that my strategy to play both sides is less profitable than skipping both (A) bets. I found a way to make it work to our benefit, and with the right bet structure we can win more and lose less. I am going to test a few more things and try to figure a way to post the plays so there is no confusion. The official plays will have a (-1 1/2) play, but no money line plays, and trust me now, for the first time I actually did the math on this and it is better. I know some are going to say "if we're playing the run line why not the M/L"? Answer: because we don't know the favorite will win the (A) bet, and for the sake of the 1 unit lost in profit, it can be made up a lot more if we end up doubling our +money (B) bet. The thing is, we will be increasing our (C) and (D) bets by more than the standard 1 unit. If the favorite wins the (A) bet, our +money dog bets will increase by 2 units each time. If the dog wins the (A) bet, we will be increasing our bets by 2 units plus the extra money above and beyond 1 unit that the dog would have won for us on (A). E.g.: If the (A) bet dog wins @ (+150), we will bet the favorite M/L on (B) (C) and (D), increasing our bet each time by 250 This is to assure we get the same profit on a win.
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thanks for all the hard work guys! green$ - 99 - 52 hut hut...Comment -
I would not say you have been wrong Wallco. I believe you are always working towards a better system and do not settle for less. That’s why I trust and respect you. This is my 4th summer of serious betting on MLB and I have not say the only way to make good consistent money is to play + odds on at least a portion of your bets. You dabble to much in the -200 and higher plays and your eventually going to get crushed. For people like us who chase it’s even worse. If your research and back testing shows a higher profit doing it a different way well then I’m on board with no questions or complaints.Comment -
if you got them as a dog for your system play, good for you, hagball. i just hadn't seen a +money line on them today.Comment -
Wallco MLB PLU$$$
2011 System to date: 67-2
System profit/loss: +68.62 units (finished series)
Since my first post: +48.35 units (52-2) (fin. series)
Current open series: 2 (-2.07 units)
(5/23/11) L.A. Angels (-1½) (D) – Win
(5/23/11) Minnesota (M/L) (A) – Loss
(5/23/11) Minnesota (-1½) (A) – Loss
(A) 36-35
(B) 14-19
(C) 10-9
(D) 7-2
Games for (5/24/11):
Seattle @ Minnesota (M/L) (B) (8:10 pm EDT)
Seattle @ Minnesota (-1½) (B) (8:10 pm EDT)
Arizona @ Colorado (M/L) (A) (SKIP) (3:10 pm EDT / DH game 1)
Arizona @ Colorado (-1½) (A) *Official* (3:10 pm EDT / DH game 1)
Arizona (M/L) @ Colorado (A) (SKIP) (3:10 pm EDT / DH game 1)
Potential (B) bets for (5/23/11):
Arizona @ Colorado (M/L) (B) (2+units) (8:40 pm EDT / DH game 2)
Arizona @ Colorado (-1½) (B) (regular wager) (8:40 pm EDT / DH game 2)
Arizona (M/L) @ Colorado (B) (2 units) (8:40 pm EDT / DH game 2)
PLEASE READ EVERYTHING BELOW
** Do not place any wagers on teams unless the word “Official” appears next to the game. All lines and standings are based on final lines on ScoresandOdds.com. Some of the unofficial plays may change to the other team by game time. Official plays will not change. Keep checking for updated posts until all games are marked “official”. If your book is offering (+1½) on the (-1½) plays above, buy the alternate line for (-1½) on the team I have listed at (-1½), not the other team. NEVER PLAY (+1½) LINE ON ANY GAME IN THIS SYSTEM.
There will be at least one (B) bet for the Arizona/Colorado series tonight. These games will not be made official until the conclusion of game 1.
The M/L plays for Arizona/Colorado game are listed only to be tracked for potential (B) bets, it is recommended that you skip these bets, and pick them up on the (B) play, for the amount listed next to the team. All three bets are official and will count towards system wins/losses, however, if bet properly, we will attain the same profit, possibly more, then if we had bet these from the (A). Also, if one of these series happens to lose, our losses will be less. I will answer any questions on this topic today, since my earlier post may now cause some confusion. Post # 3260 somewhat explains this mess.Last edited by Wallco99; 05-24-11, 10:30 AM.Comment -
OK, the floor is yours!Comment -
Today is 5/24 right Wallco?Comment -
Im' sorry Wallco, just to be sure: on potential plays for tomorrow you says (2 units/2+ units/no spec for COL -1.5).
It means that if Arizona @ Colorado (M/L) is the play we have to bet 2 or more units and if is Arizona (M/L) @ Colorado 2 units?
And, if so, what we have to place for Arizona @ Colorado (-1½)?
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Sorry, my mistake: of course Arizona @ Colorado (-1½) (B) will be 2 units, if necessary.
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Much respect Wallco. I know we had a few notes earlier on the topic of skipping the m/l's and I can really appreciate it when someone is willing to change their position and say what you said. I think it's what separates the men from the boys.
As always, appreciate the work/plays and you helping make ppl more educated and sharper bettor's.Comment -
I am not going to lie, I became suddenly extremely dizzy and confused. So we play both Colorado AND Zona ML because the win of the dog will profit plus cancel out the loss of the favorite?? Also, the win of the favorite will cancel out the loss of the dog?? To further complicate myself I see and read about the 2+ units. So basically we play 1 unit on the A bet still, then it will be 4 units on the B bets if we see that 2+unit next to it?? I am just trying to clarify as much as possible bc this system has been phenomenal and I want to keep running with it, and I know that any slight misinterpretations can lead to bad results....
Thanks WallcoComment -
Great stuff!
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We're skipping the M/L Therefore We're only playing 1 M/L depending on who wins tonight correct?Comment -
There is a word "Skip" next to those plays.
Yell at me anyway you see fit if I am wrong but we will ONLY be making 3 bets tonight:
Minn ML
Minn RL
Col RL
Ok before I confuse people Col is a Double Header today so first make sure you place your bet at the correct time. Then come back and see which bets to do for tonight.Last edited by GGPLAYER; 05-24-11, 10:47 AM.Comment -
Just got back from the book and got 'em at -115. At least some money is coming in on them. I selected them as a series play cause I thought they had a real strong chance to get the first game and they should have but their pitching is worse than I thought. Hell Thome comes back and hits 2 dingers, they score 7 and have a 3 run lead and still can't finish.Comment -
Do not play the M/L bets on this (A) game, we will pick up one of the (B) bets for twice the amount. They are only listed for tracking purposes, and they will never become official anyway, even though they will count towards system wins/loss. You will see why when this is all over, hopefully by the (B) bet.Comment -
Yes, and it will be a (B) bet, and for more units than usual and on the team that loses the (A) bet. If that bet loses, we will play a (C) bet for more units than usual, same for (D). It may sound like a lot of money, but it is actually less than a standard loss would be.Last edited by Wallco99; 05-24-11, 11:08 AM.Comment -
No one has done it yet, but for future questions, please do not include my post with the picks in a reply question to me. Believe me, I will know what post you are referring to. I just don't want the picks listed 10 different times, and then two more times when I make them official. It will just add to this already confusing day. Good job so far.Comment -
I recall that, I want to to apologize to you personally, but I forgot who made that post and when. This is slightly different than our discussion, they were both plus money bets then. I didn't do the math for that, but you may have been right with that also, I will check when need be. Thank You.Last edited by Wallco99; 05-24-11, 11:38 AM.Comment -
Hey Wallco, good to see you again! I hit a busy time in my life and had to bail out of the NBA forum but it's nice to know your still around and providing quality to this forum! I am tailing you as well as JM this season, maybe Shut Out as well if the posts are more consistent. I've read through EVERY SINGLE PAGE of the thread so don't worry about me. I can't believe how much childish bickering there has been in this forum, and hopefully that will clear up and make your job easier to deal with. Anyways just wanted to say "hey", I'll be a regular here from this point forward. Looking forward to the rest of the season, Wallco, good work!Comment -
I never said they NEVER lose, they just haven't this year yet and since I started!
And in fact, they say they were 77-4 last year so they do lose but because it's only *AB* say the avg losses are between 4-8 units so even with 4 losses your proifts are huge and I especially like you can bet at much higher rates with only 2 games to chase...
And they didn`t fail my trust still, so i`m gonna continue with them...
Will post the plays (they got 2 today) so all of you can keep track...Comment -
Like i said before, i NEVER said they never lose, they didn`t lose this season yet and are 30-0, and i can guarantee for 22 plays, since my buddy started to track them earlier then me...
In fact they say they were 77-4 last year so they do lose but because it's only *AB* say the avg losses are between 4-8 units so even with 4 losses your proifts are huge and I especially like you can bet at much higher rates with only 2 games to chase, so don`t have to bite my nails every night like i used to do it before when i waited (and of course lost) J. J. and J. M. plays, which killed my bankroll...
And they advertise their MLS as a Never Lost system and an NFL System they have also... still need proof of that, but MLB looks promising...
Will post the plays tonight ( they have 2 today) so keep track...Comment
