I see flaws in the Phillies

[daneblazer]

They are currently a 3:1 favorite to win the World Series with an over under win total of 97.5.

I think people are getting too caught up in their rotation. The lineup is getting older. Polanco and Ibanez are in the twilight of their careers. They are going to miss Jason Werth. Domonic Brown is a good looking prospect, but hasn't shown good plate discipline in the upper levels of the minors or the majors. Utley is already banged up and Jimmy Rollins isn't the player he once one.

Looking at the pen, as long as Lidge doesn't have a come apart they should be okay. Contreras and Baez are aging and they don't have a proven, dominant, good LHP in the pen right now. That said, they may not use their pen as much as the typical team with the workhorses in the rotation. Those work horses have to stay healthy though.

Don't get me wrong, I still think this is a playoff team, but I think 97.5 wins is too high. A few inevitable injuries during the year should keep them from getting 98 wins.

[robmpink]

They are currently a 3:1 favorite to win the World Series with an over under win total of 97.5.

I think people are getting too caught up in their rotation. The lineup is getting older. Polanco and Ibanez are in the twilight of their careers. They are going to miss Jason Werth. Domonic Brown is a good looking prospect, but hasn't shown good plate discipline in the upper levels of the minors or the majors. Utley is already banged up and Jimmy Rollins isn't the player he once one.

Looking at the pen, as long as Lidge doesn't have a come apart they should be okay. Contreras and Baez are aging and they don't have a proven, dominant, good LHP in the pen right now. That said, they may not use their pen as much as the typical team with the workhorses in the rotation. Those work horses have to stay healthy though.

Don't get me wrong, I still think this is a playoff team, but I think 97.5 wins is too high. A few inevitable injuries during the year should keep them from getting 98 wins.

They had a ton of injuries last year as well. I agree w/ some of what you say. It will be fun to watch how this pans out all season, but this over/under is something to stay away from. If someone held a gun to my head, I would take the under. It is just to close to call.

[smitch124]

I agree they are no lock, Utley's knee won't stop barking and I compare Oswalt and Hamels to Bosh, not really prime time players. But, taking their team as a whole, that number 96-97 seems about right for them.

[Counterfeit Cash]

The lineup won't matter if the opposing team can't even score runs...just saying.

*Philly homer here*

[Ice House]

J-Roll is a great shortstop and I would bet he has a great season.

[lakerboy]

Phillies won the world series a few years aago. They will not win for at least 15 -25 years. Fading the phils in the playoffs at + money will be fun again this year. They might win 98 games but I highly doubt it. Under is the right play.

[Jasonal_98]

There are a lot of danger signs with this team, but I don't see anyone to challenge them in the East. They'll have quite a pitching battle with the Giants in the playoffs, if the series happens.

[Terrapin Station]

There are a lot of danger signs with this team, but I don't see anyone to challenge them in the East. They'll have quite a pitching battle with the Giants in the playoffs, if the series happens.

Agree 100% with you here.

[goblue1988]

Well if Mike Minor can hold down that 5th rotation spot and Jurrjens can stay healthy...

Yeah, nevermind.

[nyplayer33]

except for Braves...the division is much weaker then Phila

[Counterfeit Cash]

The road to the WS got a lot tougher to start off with us losing Domonick Brown for about 6 weeks with that broken wrist, but I'm still optimistic though...I have a bad feeling though that we will really miss Jayson Werth come post season.

Should still be a great season for us Philly fans though.

[jsmithj88]

they have the best pitching in the mlb
same argument could be said about the giants the last couple years
u still have to hit the ball and that will be the phillies main concern all year long

[BRAVES1985]

phills will loose alot of 3-2 2-1 games

[ebbearsfb1]

if ur gonna take the under, u should keep waiting public loves the phillies

[t-wizzle]

There are concerns... whether it's the loss of Werth, a lefty-loaded lineup, some aging, Utley's injury, a below-average bullpen, etc.

Tell me though, who's going to beat them in the NL? Don't give me the Giants, that team caught lightning in a bottle last year.

[headhunter34]

replacing werth with brown is a downgrade and i see ibanez's skills declining as he gets closer to 40

[ringemup]

Not many can match their rotation in a series.

[Dukebluejms]

I agree they are no lock, Utley's knee won't stop barking and I compare Oswalt and Hamels to Bosh, not really prime time players. But, taking their team as a whole, that number 96-97 seems about right for them.

They may not be prime time players, but having them as 3/4 in your rotation is ridiculous. I have a hard time betting against them when they get to play the Mets, Nats and Marlins 19 times each.

[encephalization]

I agree with OP. You have highlighted some of the areas that I think can become real problems.

However.. The question still remains if the other teams do not have even bigger troubles.

[daneblazer]

Now Lidge is out with shoulder problems. Hope you got that under...

[Ice House]

If the Phillies make the playoffs which they should. They will win the World Series. Nobody can beat Lee and Halladay. They don't need a closer either with these 2 on the bump.

[stevenash]

Now Lidge is out with shoulder problems.

This is a good thing, his elite status ran out 3 years ago.
Funny how you become ordinary when you stop juicing.

[jds07v]

Not worried about the Phillies starters for obvious reasons. The starting pitching usually pitches deep enough into games that it will cover up some of the bullpen's problems, but I'm not sold on the Phillies bats this year. Lost Werth to FA, lost / are losing Brown and Utley to DL.

Werth was the leading run scorer for that team last year. He was 1st or 2nd on the team in almost every major category (BA, OBP, HR, RBI, R, SB)

Rollins and Victorino seemingly have no ability to hit breaking balls. They have been striking out more the last 3 years. Less leadoff men on base = less RBI for the middle of the lineup. With Utley down and Werth gone, will pitchers pitch to howard?

Last year the Phillies needed Halladay to pitch perfect (or near perfect to win).

His perfect game against the Marlins....... 1-0
He also went 9 innings and gave up no runs against the Reds...... went to extra innings tied at 0-0.

[stevenash]

I hear Howard's bat speed has slowed also.
Good breaking ball pitchers can beat this lineup.

[Wiggums5]

If the Phillies make the playoffs which they should. They will win the World Series. Nobody can beat Lee and Halladay. They don't need a closer either with these 2 on the bump.

yeah that's what everyone said in last years world series when Lee was pitching against the giants

[Ice House]

I didn't hear anyone saying that. The Giants had much better pitching staff than the Rangers. Lincecum and Lee i would rate about the same and Cain is probably up there too especially when he is on.


Now having Lee and Halladay is a whole different story. These guys are probably the best righty and lefty in the game.

The Phillies have the best pitching in the majors with the Giants being a close 2nd... The difference will be the Phillies have much better hitters than the Giants... The Giants lost their most clutch hitter in Juan Uribe... without Uribe the Giants have lost a TON not stats wise so much BUT.... the guy is clutch , he is a gamer, and he is great for team chemistry.

The Phillies will easily make it through the National League and probably face the Redsox or Yankees in the World Series.

Lee and Halladay will be the difference. They just need to stay healthy but that shouldn't be a problem for either they are both work horses.

[Wiggums5]

you just said in an above post nobody can beat Lee or Halladay

[jane2geo]

I agree take the under, great rotation but no pen and fading bats.

[mr.inpak]

all over the under 97 I give them between 90-93 wins no bullpen no hitting

[daneblazer]

Utley & Lidge out at least until the All-Star break. May throw something down on the Braves to win the division

[ShowMeDaMoney]

If the Phillies make the playoffs which they should. They will win the World Series. Nobody can beat Lee and Halladay. They don't need a closer either with these 2 on the bump.

The San Francisco Giants called, and said you are incorrect. They beat both of these pitchers last year in the playoffs, sometimes with relative ease.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Utley & Lidge out at least until the All-Star break. May throw something down on the Braves to win the division

started a thread....the Braves at 4-1 to win the NL East is an absolutely wonderful bet. Tons and tons of value.

[nyplayer33]

The division is awful except for Phillies and atlanta..i say no play on the team total...