Experiment...Taking the teams with the best bullpens

[curious]

I am going to start tracking an experiment. What if the only criteria you used was the effectiveness of the relief pitching?

So, what I will do is use a filter to see the relief pitching ERA of all the teams in MLB and take the top 5. Not sure what to do if some of them are playing each other.

KC at LAAngels KC +143
Milwaukee at St Louis St. Louis -109 Lost
White Sox at Baltimore White Sox +102
Houston at Philly Philly -165 Win
Texas at Toronto Toronto -182

If anyone has a suggestion for a better stat to use than ERA, let me know.

I read one site where the author likes GB%, K/9, BABIP, and BB/9 as indication of a good relief pitcher. I'm not sure where to get all those stats in an easy to use format. So, I am sticking with ERA for now.

One question I have, if anyone can answer this. Since the starting pitcher is responsible for the runners on base when he leaves the game, a relief pitcher could really suck and still have a good ERA. Is there any way to tell what the relief pitcher did to the starting pitcher's ERA in terms of did the relief pitcher let those inherited runners score?

For example, a relief pitcher could come into a game with 2 runners on base and 2 outs and let both runners score, then get the 3rd out. So, the official stats for the reliever are 1/3 IP and 0 earned runs. But, this pitcher sucks.

Okay, I found the stat, it is called Percent of Inherited Runners Stranded. Now I cannot find anyone who publishes the stat daily. Any ideas?

[LT Profits]

I think it's too early curious, give the teams a month to make the stats more meaningful. The results using ERA after May 1 the last three years are in my article:

Bullpens the key to winning MLB handicapping

[20Four7]

LT has done the previous years leg work. Now to see if it still holds true during this season. Great job BTW LT.

Covers has stats on the best bull penscovers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/statistics/2008/bullpenstatistics_mlb_regular.html

[LT Profits]

Yes but remember all my stats are from May 1 onward.

[curious]

LT has done the previous years leg work. Now to see if it still holds true during this season. Great job BTW LT.

Covers has stats on the best bull penscovers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/statistics/2008/bullpenstatistics_mlb_regular.html

THis is the stat I think is really important for a bullpen.
Percent of Inherited Runners Stranded
ERA tells part of the story, PIRS tells the juicy part.

I can't find Percent of Inherited Runners Stranded anywhere where it is updated daily.

[mofome]

LT has done the previous years leg work. Now to see if it still holds true during this season. Great job BTW LT.

Covers has stats on the best bull penscovers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/statistics/2008/bullpenstatistics_mlb_regular.html

where is LTs stuff.

[curious]

I think it's too early curious, give the teams a month to make the stats more meaningful. The results using ERA after May 1 the last three years are in my article:

Bullpens the key to winning MLB handicapping

LT, how do you weigh going with a dog or going with a bullpen? I know you like to bet big dogs. Or, do you only go with big dogs who are not playing a team with a good bullpen?

[LT Profits]

mofome,

Hit the link I posted above you dufus.

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curious,

Read the article. Play top 10 pen when facing non-top 10 pen either as a dog OF ANY PRICE or as a favorite of less than -130.

[curious]

mofome,

Hit the link I posted above you dufus.

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curious,

Read the article. Play top 10 pen when facing non-top 10 pen either as a dog OF ANY PRICE or as a favorite of less than -130.

I did read the article dufus I was just wondering what you do when you like a big dog and they are playing one of the top 10 bullpen teams, because I know you like to play big dogs. The answer seems to be you never bet against top 10 bullpen teams. Correct?

[diogee]

Going to give it a shot myself LT...seems like it would not be too time consuming to find the plays and track.

[mofome]

I think it's too early curious, give the teams a month to make the stats more meaningful. The results using ERA after May 1 the last three years are in my article:

Bullpens the key to winning MLB handicapping

yes! lets get rich bitches!

[mofome]

I did read the article dufus I was just wondering what you do when you like a big dog and they are playing one of the top 10 bullpen teams, because I know you like to play big dogs. The answer seems to be you never bet against top 10 bullpen teams. Correct?

you're a mofome ghost.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Hmm. I just dont understand the logic in strictly handicapping a game based on the bullpen. This is obviously one element that you NEED to consider when capping a game but there are many other elements of equal or greater importance. It doesnt do you much good to handicap only a bullpen when the bullpen inherits a 7-0 trouncing in the 4th inning. Starting pitchers, lefty/righty splits, home/away splits, injuries, etc. All of these things hold at least as much weight in successfully handicapping a game. I'd argue that picking a team strictly on bullpen stats is akin to putting Tom Brady alone on the football field against the Colts defense and telling him to go win a football game for you.

[curious]

Hmm. I just dont understand the logic in strictly handicapping a game based on the bullpen. This is obviously one element that you NEED to consider when capping a game but there are many other elements of equal or greater importance. It doesnt do you much good to handicap only a bullpen when the bullpen inherits a 7-0 trouncing in the 4th inning. Starting pitchers, lefty/righty splits, home/away splits, injuries, etc. All of these things hold at least as much weight in successfully handicapping a game. I'd argue that picking a team strictly on bullpen stats is akin to putting Tom Brady alone on the football field against the Colts defense and telling him to go win a football game for you.

I see your point. However, I did notice a correlation between win% and bullpen stats for the top 5 bullpen teams.

I'm willing to give the bullpen handicapping method a shot and see what happens.

[LT Profits]

Hmm. I just dont understand the logic in strictly handicapping a game based on the bullpen. This is obviously one element that you NEED to consider when capping a game but there are many other elements of equal or greater importance. It doesnt do you much good to handicap only a bullpen when the bullpen inherits a 7-0 trouncing in the 4th inning. Starting pitchers, lefty/righty splits, home/away splits, injuries, etc. All of these things hold at least as much weight in successfully handicapping a game. I'd argue that picking a team strictly on bullpen stats is akin to putting Tom Brady alone on the football field against the Colts defense and telling him to go win a football game for you.

Because bullpens are undervalued in the betting line (apparently) while starting pitching is grossly overvalued IMO.

[diogee]

All I know is this is my first year in bases and thus far crap bullpens have cost me more money than good SP has made me.

[turnip]

I think the logic is this: The lines have been undervaluing bullpens. That's all that's really necessary for this system to have worked.

The problem is, as LT points out in his article, the oddsmakers and/or market appear to be catching on, which could lead to this edge disappearing rapidly

[LT Profits]

I did read the article dufus I was just wondering what you do when you like a big dog and they are playing one of the top 10 bullpen teams, because I know you like to play big dogs. The answer seems to be you never bet against top 10 bullpen teams. Correct?

If you follow the system to a tee, you will always be on a top 10 pen and never be against a top 10 pen. A lot of dogs fit the profile last year because you had lowly regarded teams like the Nationals and Royals fitting the profile at various points in the year, oftentimes at +200+.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I see your point. However, I did notice a correlation between win% and bullpen stats for the top 5 bullpen teams.

I'm willing to give the bullpen handicapping method a shot and see what happens.

And you should... But you will also find a correlation between BA and OBP against lefty starters and win% vs. lefty starters. And another correlation between home ERA and WHIP of a starting pitcher vs. win % at home for that pitcher. A perfect example from last year was Wandy Rodriguez. He was lights out at home but was one of the worst pitchers in the league on the road. The guys home/away splits were amazing. I remember one game in particular last year where he got shelled for 8 runs or so in the first inning. Not much a bullpen can do for you to come back in that case. But it was one of my easiest bets of the year... Not so if the Astros are your team with the better pen...

[MonkeyF0cker]

Because bullpens are undervalued in the betting line (apparently) while starting pitching is grossly overvalued IMO.

It would seem to me that its the public that drives the lines more heavily based on starting pitching. The linesmakers merely want balanced books. I agree that it is a huge factor when capping a game but certainly not the only one you should ever consider...

[curious]

It would seem to me that its the public that drives the lines more heavily based on starting pitching. The linesmakers merely want balanced books. I agree that it is a huge factor when capping a game but certainly not the only one you should ever consider...

I think LT is saying that he does not bet on non top 10 bullpen teams.

Are you saying that you would start with the list of the top 10 bullpen teams and then filter them by the kinds of criteria you talked about?

Or, would you give the bullpen effectiveness a weighting with the other factors you care about?

I still think that ERA for a bullpen can be deceptive. Because it hides the value of those runs and it ignores what happened to the inherited runners. By the value of those runs I mean, if the relief pitchers are great in blow out games but get rocked in close games, then the runs they gave up in the close games had a much larger impact than the scoreless innings they pitched in the blow out games.

[butters]

Solid work there, LT. I have a quick question. Do you have results for this strategy for previous years before 2005? I don't doubt that this is a promising strategy, but it would be interesting to see how it performed in previous years to see if the public/bookmakers are indeed catching on or if the (slightly) poorer performance last year is just some random variation. If not, I could try to look into it.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I give the bullpen equal weight with all of the other factors I mentioned ( and then some). Starting pitcher, offensive, home/away, weather, etc. They are all important to consider. You may want to put more weight on the pens if you so choose but it can't be the only thing in consideration. I'm not a fan of the top 10 bullpen idea. If team #1 has the best pen but the most unproductive offense and team #2 has the second best pen but the best offense in the league I will take team 2, for example. Obviously I would have to compare starting pitchers and other factors but I hope you see my point. There are more effective ways to compare teams and get a better assessment of the impending outcome than just purely bullpens. Although I dont disagree that they are often overlooked by many cappers.

[MonkeyF0cker]

On a side note, I compare the actual statistics rather than the ranking of each team. Rankings only mask the real statistics anyway...

[curious]

Another idea. Betting against the five worst bullpen teams. Which are:
Angels
Boston
Cleveland
Seattle
San Diego

How in the hell can a team have a bullpen ERA of 6 and have 3 wins and 6 saves from the bullpen (Boston)?

[rake922]

How in the hell can a team have a bullpen ERA of 6 and have 3 wins and 6 saves from the bullpen (Boston)?

They have the best closer in baseball, but have Mike Timlin with a 27.00 ERA

[curious]

Okay the five worst bullpen teams went 5-0, the five best bullpen teams went 1-4.

So, I will be betting with the 5 worst bullpen teams and betting against the five best bullpen teams.