Totals Totals Totals

mofome · 04-14-08, 11:01 AM

love the dbacks over.

beaneaters · 04-14-08, 04:15 PM

We should trade places. I can pick some winners, but my totals are horseshit. But I like both picks today.

curious · 04-14-08, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Taking a break from picking sides until May at least. I don't seem to have much of a handle on them at all so far. Totals have been far more pleasant for me, so tracking my totals plays starting today. Comments always welcomed. Will add a little insight to any play I make if it helps or hurts or does whatever for ya!

MONDAY, APRIL 14th
1. D-backs/Giants OVER 7.5: Big Unit's first start, not expecting him to go more than 5 or 6, so the bullpen may be involved early. They pitched alot on Sunday, so fatigue could help. Sanchez for SF has bad career #s vs. Arizona and the D-Backs have had success vs. lefty starters early on. This # seems at least a run low to me.

2. Twins/Tigers UNDER 8.5: Blackburn has pitched well in two starts for the Twins this season as he makes the change from reliever to starter. With the Tigers' bats still inconsistent at bet & them never facing him before, he should have some moderate success. Bonderman has been steady, but not spectacular early on for Detroit. He pitched will in two starts vs. MIN last season. With the Twins offense still struggling on the road against decent pitching & the Tigers in shambles, I think this might find the under.

The Tigers pitching staff is a disaster. If Bonderman leaves the game early the fireworks will start.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-15-08, 01:06 PM

TUESDAY, APRIL 15th

1. Angels/Rangers UNDER 10: A strong breeze blowing in from right/center field today could help keep the ball from flying out of the ballpark. Millwood has been solid in his career vs. LA and has already twirled a good game vs. them this season, in a 2-1 game. In 3 of his last 4 starts vs. LA, the # has stayed under today's total. Moseley on the other hand has not been steady in the early-go with a pair of iffy starts with totals well into the double digits in both games he has started. The feeling here however is that this Texas boy pitches adequately enough - perhaps in front of family & friends - for 5 IP to get the ball to a pretty solid bullpen and squeak under the #.

2. Reds/Cubs UNDER 11: I realize the wind is blowing out to left field tonight at a clip just above 10 mph, but this total seems elevated considering the pitching. Harang has been solid vs. CHI in his career and at Wrigley with a 4-0 record in 8 starts, a respectable 4.65 ERA. In 6 starts vs. CHI last season, the # for tonight would have hit under in 4 and pushed in 2. Dempster has been solid in two starts this season with totals going to 10 & 9, due mainly to the Cubs offense as Dempster has allowed just 1 ER in 13 IP. Cincy is also under in 4 of 6 on the road, while the Cubs have played under in 2 of 4 at Wrigley, but 3 would have landed under tonight's total of 11. All told, CIN has played over 11 in just 2 of 13 games with one push & CHI in 2 of 12 with one push.

3. Royals/Mariners OVER 8.5: Two starts who have been banged about a bit this season in Bale for KC and Batista for SEA trends to an over. Bale has given up 4 ER in both starts, losses to NY and MIN. Batista has also given up 4 ER in both his starts, 9 runs total. KC has amazingly gone under in 11 of 13 games this season, but Bale's start was one of the overs. SEA has kicked their offense up at home with 3 overs and last night's under vs.Greinke. Ms bats vs. lefties at home have heated up with a .324 AVG and I believe the offense comes to play for both teams tonight and sees at least 9 on the board.

Results: 1-2

EaglesPhan36 · 04-16-08, 10:45 AM

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 16th

1. Rockies/Padres OVER 8.5: Mark Redman twirls for the Rocks and Justin Germano for the Pads. Redman alone is enough to give me confidence for a shot at the over here. In both his starts this season, the totals have gone over tonight's posted #. Redman allowed 5 runs in his first start and then improved, allowing 3 runs in his 2nd start. Both starts however were only five innings. That means we could see the COL bullpen by the 6th. Pads have hit lefties to a .286 clip so far at home. On the other side, Germano has been sensational early for SD. He has yet to yield a run in 13 IP. Germano did however get lit up twice last year by COL. Those two games featured double digit totals. This could be the game where COL gets their offense on track on the road.

2. Red Sox/Yankees UNDER 9: Wang has been sensational at Yankee Stadium in his career with a 2.97 ERA. He's allowed no more than 2 runs in any start this season and has already handcuffed the Sox at Fenway in a 4-1 Yankee win. 2 of his 3 home starts vs. BOS last season went under tonight's number. Buchholz pitched well in the same match-up this season, yielding one run in 6 IP. NY has been an under machine in general, with 12 of 15 games staying under, including 6 of 7 at home. 6 of the last 9 in the Bronx in this series have gone under.

Results: 1-1

White_Tiger · 04-16-08, 11:09 AM

GL Eagles !

EaglesPhan36 · 04-16-08, 05:35 PM

Added Sox/Yanks for tonight.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-17-08, 11:33 AM

THURSDAY, APRIL 17th

1. Astros/Phillies OVER 9.5: Brandon Backe's #s would suggest at first glance an easy shot for an under, but we delve deeper. Despite the 2.25 ERA, Backe is highly inefficient, tossing over 100 pitches in each of his last two games - just 11 IP combined. In his 3 starts, the opposition has left an astounding 59 men on base. Sooner or later, that will catch up with you. Brett Myers has yielded at least 3 ER in each of his starts with two totals going higher than today's #. His career #s vs. HOU are not glossy, in fact his last start at home vs. them in '07 ... 3.1 IP, 7 ER. This series has been more about pitching, but both teams have the studs to bring out the offense and that's what I like today.

1. Rangers/Blue Jays OVER 8.5: Vicente Padilla and OVERS go hand-in-hand. So far, all three of his starts have gone over, even when he's pitched well. Padilla had trouble with TOR in his last start, giving up 5 runs in 6 IP. His offense has given him a good deal of run support, so perhaps that will help even against Roy Halladay. In Padilla's starts, the Rangers offense has hit for 5, 10 & 5 runs. Halladay was solid vs. TEX earlier, only one run in a complete game 4-1 win. He has however been hit around by TEX on occassion, with a 5.45 ERA vs. TEX. Last year, Roy gave up 1, 9 & 4 ER in starts vs. TEX. Blue Jays have also found the OVER in 4 of 7 home games this season with two pushes and are 4 of 5 in favor of the OVER in Game 2s.

Results: 1-1

EaglesPhan36 · 04-17-08, 04:57 PM

One more for Thursday

mofome · 04-17-08, 04:57 PM

gl big guy

EaglesPhan36 · 04-18-08, 02:00 PM

I see the trend, I shall be the trend. One pick, one win. Two picks, not two wins.

FRIDAY, APRIL 18th
1. Giants/Cardinals OVER 7.5 Rain is expected in St.Louis, but could taper off enough to get this game in. Winds could be a factor with predictons of 10+ mph winds blowing out to left & center. We had this same pitching match-up just a week or so ago with Cain vs. Wellemeyer. Cain was solid, 6.2 IP and 2 ER. Wellemeyer not so much. He got through 6, but gave up 5 ER. He's been a gopher ball speciale, yielding 5 HRs in 3 starts. In Wellemeyer's 3 starts, the totals have hit 15, 8 & 11. Cain's last 2 starts (including STL) have seen overs with 15 & 12 runs. Cain is not to blame for all of that though and there within lies a good reason to take the over, the SF bullpen. The Giants pen has been horrid. A 5.20 ERA overall and the Giants have gone over in 5 of their last 6.

Results: 1-0

beaneaters · 04-18-08, 02:03 PM

solid analysis. I think the 7.5s are best left to the Peavys, Webbs and Harens of the world.
GL

EaglesPhan36 · 04-19-08, 01:44 PM

"One Pick, One Win"

My new catchy motto above.

SATURDAY, APRIL 19th
1. Rockies/Astros UNDER 9:Wandy Rodriguez is enjoying success at Minute Maid Park, a carryover from last season where he was 6-3 with a 2.94 ERA. Wandy also was magic vs. COL with a 2-0 record in '07 and a microscopic ERA of 0.75 against Colorado. In two home starts this season, Wandy has yielded just one ER in 14.1 IP with totals of 6 & 8. For the Rockies, Aaron Cook has pitched decently vs. HOU in his career. Cook is 3-0 in 7 games with a 3.99 ERA. At Minute Maid Park, he is 2-0 in 4 career starts with a 2.70 ERA. The UNDER has hit in 15 of the Astros last 21 & 4 of the last 6.

Results: 1-0

EaglesPhan36 · 04-20-08, 10:50 AM

"One Pick, One Win"

SUNDAY, APRIL 20th
1. Giants/Cards OVER 7.5 This number just seems way too low to me with Jonathan Sanchez on the mound for SF & Braden Looper for STL. Sanchez is a model in inefficiency. In 2 of his 3 starts, he's needed 90+ pitches just to get to the 5th inning. In those starts, he's given up 11 runs in 9 IP. In between, he did have a stellar start vs. SD with 10 Ks in 6 IP, but dating back to last year that seems to be an out of the ordinary occurrence. This season, the two "dirty" Sanchez starts have yielded totals of 9 & 17. Looper meanwhile has been steady if not spectacular. 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA. Still, in two of his three starts the total has gone over with 10 & 9 runs. And the other start, the total went to 7. Looper seems to be made for about 5-6 IP and that is it, going 5, 5.2 & 6 IP this season despite giving up no more than 3 ER in any start. What does that mean? Bullpens should be in play today and SF's still sports an ERA close to 5.00 while STL's is much more solid with an ERA just above 3.00. Both teams have good trends to get the over as well with the Giants going over in 7 of 9 following a win and the Cards doing the same following a loss. Giants won yesterday 3-0.

Results: 1-0

EaglesPhan36 · 04-21-08, 10:33 AM

"One Pick, One Win"

MONDAY, APRIL 21st
1. Padres/Astros UNDER 9: Will the real Roy Oswalt please stand up? The Astros will hope that Roy O. got his groove back after a solid start vs. Philly last time out. Oswalt allowed just 1 ER in 7 IP after being lit up in his 1st three starts for 16 ER. Roy has been solid vs. SD in his career with a 7-2 record and a 2.49 ERA. That includes a so-so performance earlier this year against the Pads, yielding 3 ER in 5.1 IP. On the other side, Justin Germano continues to pitch well with little run support. Germano has surrendered no more than 3 ER in any of his three starts. Totals in his starts have gone under tonight's # in 2 of 3. Oswalt's are 2 of 4. This is a repeat of a meeting last year in SD where the final was 3-2 HOU. In Oswalt's start vs. Peavy this season, 4 was the total. In Oswalt's last 4 vs. SD, the total has stayed well under tonight's posted #. Both offenses are scuffling a bit, hitting around .200 in their last 10 vs. righties. SD has scored 9,3,0,1,1,7,0 in their last 7 roadies - so it's feast or famine and famine seems to win out more often than not.

Results: 0-1

tab · 04-21-08, 11:03 AM

I agree with you on Roy OSwalt. I do get worried about Germano giving up runs in a hitter friendly park. Another play I really for this game is PADRES TEAM TOTAL UNDER 4 RUNS. The padres offense is like helter skelter. The padres put up 9 runs yesterday in day game. They very inconsistent in scoring runs. They will score runs like yesterday than the offense struggles for the next couple of games. THe padres have difficulties scoirng in night games. And tonite its going to be difficult to score against the Astros ace.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-21-08, 11:14 AM

Not a bad idea at all. Might look into that one as well.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-22-08, 04:21 PM

No play today, just a lean to the over in the Marlins/Pirates game.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-23-08, 11:15 AM

"One Pick, One Win"

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 23rd
1. Giants/Padres OVER 7: Considering we saw this same pitching match-up just a few games ago and the total went into double digits, I can't avoid trying the over here. Matt Cain has had some issues early this season. Cain's 4 starts have found the over 3 times with him yielding 9, 4, 2 & no runs. His offense has provided 14 runs of support, but have been hit & miss. In his start vs. SD earlier this season, Cain lasted just 4.1 IP and gave up 5 runs, 4 earned in a, 8-4 SD win. Maddux is coming off a dreadful start vs. Arizona where he surrendered 9 ER. In his 4 starts, the total has gone over tonight's posted # 3 times. That comes despite Maddux yielding 3, 0 and 1 ER in those other 3 starts. That means bullpens could play a big part in an over tonight if we get there. The SD pen has an ERA of 4.86 over their last 10 while the SF pen is at 4.36 during that stretch. The Pads have been on an over run due in part to poor pitching as 5 of their last 7 have gone over. They've given up double digit runs 3 times in that stretch and 9 in another game. Both offenses have been feast or famine of late, but I think with the possible inefficiency of Cain & the likelihood of the 'pens being involved by the 6th, this number looks low and the over seems right.