Let's Put It To A Vote

[austintx05]

He wasn't clear when he said "most capable of winning the game for you"

If he means "most likely to win a game with his current team" then you're correct

If he means "most likely to win a game on a random team" then he is not top 5.

care to take a stab at the average run support Wang actually gets. It is not as high as you might think. Which is again, why he is underrated.

Nothing flashy about producing groundballs. ESPN can't make a big deal about it, but it does translate to wins.

ie The most wins in the last 2 seasons.

[turnip]

Where would you rank Wang on this list:

Santana
Peavy
Webb
Bedard
Young
Hamels
Verlander
Oswalt
Haren

[element1286]

Last two years

Andy Pettitte's record is 29-22 (.5686 win %)
Mike Mussina's record is 26-17 (.6047 win %)

Tim Hudson 29-22 (.5686 win %)
Dan Haren 29-22 (.5685 win %)
Jake Peavy 30-20 (.6000 win %)

If wins are so important, and are the bottom line, then Mussina and Pettitte seem to be just as good as Hudson, Haren, and Peavy. And we all know that Mussina and Pettitte are not in the same league as those three. Wins are important, but not the only thing. I would think that era and innings pitched per start are a better indication of who the better pitcher is.

Wang is good, I would put him in the top 10-15 pitchers, but he is not in the top 5.

[diogee]

Element

[austintx05]

Last two years

Andy Pettitte's record is 29-22 (.5686 win %)
Mike Mussina's record is 26-17 (.6047 win %)

Tim Hudson 29-22 (.5686 win %)
Dan Haren 29-22 (.5685 win %)
Jake Peavy 30-20 (.6000 win %)

If wins are so important, and are the bottom line, then Mussina and Pettitte seem to be just as good as Hudson, Haren, and Peavy. And we all know that Mussina and Pettitte are not in the same league as those three. Wins are important, but not the only thing. I would think that era and innings pitched per start are a better indication of who the better pitcher is.

Wang is good, I would put him in the top 10-15 pitchers, but he is not in the top 5.

era is the most overvalued stat. Look at Zito. Wins is what everything is based upon. The rest is crap. You get paid cause they think you can win.

Haren is not a top 10 pitcher.

[austintx05]

Element

dio, try posting something worthwhile instead of a bunch of crap that you post all over this site.

Add some insight for once.

[element1286]

I was not saying that Haren was a top 10 pitchers. I was just saying that he is obviously better than two guys who have a comparable amounts of wins. Meaning that wins are not as important as you suggest.

[diogee]

dio, try posting something worthwhile instead of a bunch of crap that you post all over this site.

Add some insight for once.

Don't want to get your hopes up so I will just tell you right now that it will never happen.

[austintx05]

Don't want to get your hopes up so I will just tell you right now that it will never happen.

least you admit it.

[austintx05]

I was not saying that Haren was a top 10 pitchers. I was just saying that he is obviously better than two guys who have a comparable amounts of wins. Meaning that wins are not as important as you suggest.

you bring a good argument, the best so far. If wins are not as meaningful as I Suggest, then where do you go to find what is meaningful?

whip?
era?
k's?
hits?

[onlooker]

Who?

[thegreatdiatchi]

Wang is the reason the Yanks made the playoffs last year imo. (A-Rod helped but someone on the staff had to step up and that person was Wang). A pitcher shouldn't be graded by stats alone. Pitchers need to be good when the team needs them and I think that few do it better than Wang. Maybe I'm biased as a Yanks fan and I do respect those who think he's only top 10 or 15 but anyone who says he's not at least a top 15 pitcher doesn't know jack about baseball.

[diogee]

least you admit it.

BTW if you knew how to read you would see that I consistently give good input in the NBA forum but I am not really hear to argue with anyone so I will just stick to winning 36% of my games if you don't mind.

[element1286]

I would think that era and inning pitched per start are two very good ones. The first showing how many runs a pitcher would give up one average. And innings pitched per start shows a starter can get deep into games while still being effective. Thus saving the bullpen.

[St. Andrew]

Austin: if Element didn't convince you, this should.

You tout Wang's ground ball outs. Okay, if he has so many than he should have a low hits per inning ratio. Hits per inning ratio is extremely important because teams can't score if they can't get on base.

However, in 2007 Wang gave up 199 hits in 199 innings. If he were a top five pitcher, he would have fewer hits than innings like all these guys did in 2007:

Guthrie, Verlander, Kazmir, Escobar, Beckett, Sabathia, Bedard...and that was just the AL.

Your case is closed.

[austintx05]

Austin: if Element didn't convince you, this should.

You tout Wang's ground ball outs. Okay, if he has so many than he should have a low hits per inning ratio. Hits per inning ratio is extremely important because teams can't score if they can't get on base.

However, in 2007 Wang gave up 199 hits in 199 innings. If he were a top five pitcher, he would have fewer hits than innings like all these guys did in 2007:

Guthrie, Verlander, Kazmir, Escobar, Beckett, Sabathia, Bedard...and that was just the AL.

Your case is closed.

case is not closed. Wang does have the best groundball ratio and he does have more wins recorded in the last 2 seasons than every single pitcher that you mention.

Wang is a top 5 pitcher.

Now, my case is closed.

[austintx05]

I would think that era and inning pitched per start are two very good ones. The first showing how many runs a pitcher would give up one average. And innings pitched per start shows a starter can get deep into games while still being effective. Thus saving the bullpen.

IP is good for durability. Guys like Verlander develop dead arm as they reach 200 IP. ERA is very overrated, just look at Zito.

[element1286]

I don't know how era would be overrated, it directly shows how many runs you give per 9 innings on average. Zito's era last year was not good and he wasn't a good pitcher. He is not the same guy who was a very good pitcher in Oakland. What are the stats you look at?

[austintx05]

I don't know how era would be overrated, it directly shows how many runs you give per 9 innings on average. Zito's era last year was not good and he wasn't a good pitcher. He is not the same guy who was a very good pitcher in Oakland. What are the stats you look at?

wins, pitch counts, opposing baa, groundball to fly ball ratio, k's, era.

Its combo of everything that makes a pitcher great.

Santana and Peavy are strikeout pitchers, Wang, Halladay are more location. They don't have the velocity those guys have, but they rely on movement a bit more. All of them get the job done though.

[austintx05]

from ussmariner.com

Edwin Jackson, in his two starts so far, has allowed 18 flyballs. 14 of those 18 flyballs have been infield flies. That’s a 77% IF/F rate. Last year, the major league leader in IF/F rate was Bronson Arroyo - 15.4% of his flyballs were infield flies.

It’s not just Edwin Jackson, either. The league average IF/F rate is 18% in the American League and 13% in the National League. While it’s almost certainly early season random variation, that AL infield fly rate is absurdly high, and is probably one of the main reasons offense is down across the league.

Fausto Carmona has thrown 13 innings, walked 9, and struck out 7 in his two starts so far. He has a 0.69 ERA. A 78% ground ball rate covers a multitude of sins.

The San Francisco Giants, as a team, are hitting .230/.276/.331. That’s a .607 OPS. As a team. Willie Bloomquist’s career OPS is .642, and in his worst season, it was .613. The San Francisco Giants, as a team, are hitting like a slumping Willie Bloomquist. That’s what you get for having a Molina hitting cleanup.
Speaking of the Giants, Jonathan Sanchez has the best strikeout rate in the majors through two starts. In fact, his season line of 10 IP, 10 H, 1 HR, 4 BB, and 18 K suggest that he’s been one of the more dominating starters in baseball so far. His ERA is 6.30. 6.30! Yet another reason why ERA is useless as any kind of predictor of things to come.

Okay, one more reason ERA is pathetic. Steve Trachsel couldn’t be any less effective if he tried - 12 innings, 6 walks, 3 strikeouts, and a 36% GB rate. He’s not throwing strikes, missing bats, or getting groundballs. He’s doing exactly zero things that lead to sustained success. He has a 6.32 xFIP during the part of the season when team’s aren’t scoring runs. His ERA? 3.00.

The average velocity on Barry Zito’s fastball in 2008 - 82.7 MPH. Zito is teetering on the edge of replacement level, and the Giants are on the hook for $18 million per season. This is the cost of not learning the lesson of the uselessness of ERA.

[element1286]

I do think those stats you listed are important, but they are all a component of the era. Era and innings pitched per start are very useful when evaluating known pitchers. I do think that those stats are important when capping games, and looking for edges, but I don't think they are very important in deciding which pitcher is better overall.

Those stats would also be important in evaluating young pitchers who have not been in the league for very long. Some combinations of stats are very good a predicting future success in the league.

[element1286]

Yes, but you are missing the point about Earned Run Average. It is an average, and averages mean nothing in the sample sizes you provided. Averages are good indicators of prolonged success.

[MJFtheGenius]

Where would you rank Wang on this list:

Santana
Peavy
Webb
Bedard
Young
Hamels
Verlander
Oswalt
Haren

Over haren,hamels,young haha, Bedard, oswalt.


Does anyone understand how diffilcult it is to be the number 1 starter on the yankees. Does anyone understand the pressure of pitching for that team now a days. If Wang played for a avgerage or small market N.L. team his ERA would be even more impressive.

[austintx05]

Over haren,hamels,young haha, Bedard, oswalt.


Does anyone understand how diffilcult it is to be the number 1 starter on the yankees. Does anyone understand the pressure of pitching for that team now a days. If Wang played for a avgerage or small market N.L. team his ERA would be even more impressive.

exactly. MF, imagine if Wang pitched in Petco or any other NL pitcher's park.

Pitching in the toughest division in baseball in one of the bigger parks as well.

These threads are great indicators of what the avg Joe knows about baseball.

[element1286]

The pressure only matters if you let it get to you, like A-Rod does/did. There is nothing to suggest that the pressure has gotten or will get to him. Saying that he would have better numbers on a team because they are a small market is laughable.

[austintx05]

The pressure only matters if you let it get to you, like A-Rod does/did. There is nothing to suggest that the pressure has gotten or will get to him. Saying that he would have better numbers on a team because they are a small market is laughable.

I'm not talking about the market. I am saying pitching in a pitcher friendly park would only help Wang's numbers., the same way they help Peavy, Young, Maddux.

[MJFtheGenius]

I'd put him ahead of verlander too, forgot him on my list in my previous post.

[MJFtheGenius]

Saying that he would have better numbers on a team because they are a small market is laughable.

Is it?

You don't read very much do you. There is alot more pressure pitching as a Yankee.

I can't even remember all the pitchers that came from the N.L. to the yanks and were supposed to light it up. Randy Johnson, Kevin brown, Car Pavano, Farnsworth. Many can not pitch under the pressure.

[element1286]

He does pitch against good competition, but so does Roy Halladay, and he has better numbers over the last three years than Wang.

While Yankee Stadium is an offensive park, having the short porch in left field. The rest of the field is pretty standard though. But doesn't Wang's style, i.e. a lot of ground balls, mean the parks pure offensive tendency is less important.

The last three years at home Wang's era is 3.04, and his era on the road is 4.62. Now I know you don't like era, but that doesn't suggest he has a problem pitching in Yankee Stadium.

[element1286]

Randy Johnson and Kevin Brown were both on the downsides of their career, and were not the same pitchers anymore. Carl Pavano was an overrated pitcher who had one good season, he was set up to fail by signing such a big deal in New York. Kind of like Barry Zito with the Giants. Kyle Farnsworth is a guy who had a problem with control his whole career. He had some good years on some bad teams, but he always had a flaw.

[MJFtheGenius]

Element all I hear from you is excuses after excuses.

[element1286]

I am pretty sure you are the one making excuses. Blaming the pressure caused by the media is an excuse. I don't think very many people thought Johnson and Brown would excel at such advanced ages, Pavano was unproven, and Farnsworth was just never that good.

[MJFtheGenius]

LOL I remember everybody crowning the yanks world champs when they got Randy. Pavano was also expected to be an ace. Kevin brown was a complete disaster, how does someone get so bad over one offseason. Farnsworth was a decent reliever and now he is lucky to still have a job.

[MJFtheGenius]

and the year before Randy came to the yankees he posted a 2.60 ERA with Arizona.

[MJFtheGenius]

and the year before kevon Brown came to the Yanks he posted a 2.39 ERA with the Dodgers.