Friend thinks dime\20 cent lines no huge difference.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Can anyone link me to an article that shows examples of in the long run, what the dime\20 cent line would do to a bettor? He plays everyday, and I'm telling him he has to ditch his book becuase he only offers 20 cent lines for bases.

I read an article a ways back that explained it really well. He understands the basics, but thinks it "shouldn't make a big difference in the long run"

No, none of you can book for him.

[smitch124]

Forget trying to convince him, just book his bets with a 20c line!

[Mr. Jones]

A fool and his money are easily parted.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Forget trying to convince him, just book his bets with a 20c line!

Thought about doing this but baseball is a sport I'm confident I'll come out on top of - have for the last five years... if it ain't broke don't fix it.

[MadTiger]

No, don't USE his picks; be the bookie against him to demonstrate how you will grind him away.

In ANY BUSINESS if you make a habit of continually paying more (10% etc.) than something is worth, you won't be in business long.

[EXhoosier10]

Imagine this scenario: Say he hits 50% (you can change this to whatever you want). every bet is -110 instead of -105. After (on average) two bets, he will lose 10 cents for every 1 dollar bet for 20cent lines (loses -1.1 and wins 1 = -.1), while with 10cent lines, he only loses (on average) 5 cents (-1.05 + 1 = -.05). For every 2 bets made (again, assuming a line of -110 for every bet), he is losing an additional $0.05. You say he bets quite often, so assuming 20 bets a week, he's losing an additional $0.50 a week if he only bets to win 1 dollar per bet. If he bets $10 a bet, thats an extra $5 he's losing a week.

Now of course, this is assuming a win percentage of only 50%, so i'm sure it's a little less than 5 cents for every two bets, but that's the general idea

[EXhoosier10]

Here's a general formula to figure out how much he's losing. the .05 is the difference between the 10 and 20 cent line (-105 to -110)

How much he's "losing" = (1-win%)*.05 * (# of Bets)

Tell him to go to matchbook and there will be a 10-15 cent difference in each bet. Assuming a $10 bet per game and 20 bets per week, tell him he's wasting nearly $10 a week because he's not using matchy

[Whippit]

is your friend Pete Rose?

[BGboothA]

LMAO, forget trying to convince him of anything...book his bets for him and rake the difference.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

LMAO, forget trying to convince him of anything...book his bets for him and rake the difference.

Not looking to book baseball for one person. If i had three or four people that wanted to play on a consistent basis, sure... but booking for one person would be a logistical nightmare, not fun, and not worth my time. I know I beat baseball making my own picks every year so that's what I'll do.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Here's a general formula to figure out how much he's losing. the .05 is the difference between the 10 and 20 cent line (-105 to -110)

How much he's "losing" = (1-win%)*.05 * (# of Bets)

Tell him to go to matchbook and there will be a 10-15 cent difference in each bet. Assuming a $10 bet per game and 20 bets per week, tell him he's wasting nearly $10 a week because he's not using matchy

# of bets would be bets lost, yah?

Also he only "loses" out on anything when he takes a dog, so that has to be factored in, yah? I'm not much of a math guy. I was more so gonna do .10*amount of bets on dogs that you won* wager size.

Am I way off?

Only the dogs are ten points lower, the favorites as the closing lines (at least that's what he gets.)

So it's -140 Red Sox
+130 Yankees

but he gets -140 Red Sox
+120 Yankees


Also, I've never used matchbook but I'm in the process of figuring out where my money will be online this year. I usually have used betjam\5dimes in the past. Can you tell me does matchbooks lines beat 5dimes which I'm currently getting nickle lines if I play the line before? Not too familiar with matchbook, friend says he uses it and saves a boat load on juice.. but you have to be patient in placing your bets.

[EXhoosier10]

Ya, I guess this is a baseball thread, so not every bet is going to be -110 or -105. So ya, if those are the type of lines he gets, then sure, he is only losing 10 cents when he loses a dog pick, which i'm guessing he hits only ~45%, so

(#bets on dogs)*(1-Win%)*.1*(Wager size)

(#bets on dogs)* (1-win%) boils down to how many bets he loses, so you can do that instead.

But regards to matchy v. 5dimes/betjam, I don't have experience with either of the two you mentioned. The way I've always done it is split my money between 2 or 3 books (with a a little more at the book I expect to use the most - matchbook). Even if I save only 2 or 3 cents, I'm still savin' some dough.

[jds07v]

5Dimes overnight lines have been very nice to me

[dabomguy11]

I've come to realize that sometimes people are not going to agree with you, even when you know you are absolutely right. While I might try and persuade him, I wouldn't exert too much effort trying to convince someone on something that they already have their mind set on. While it may sound cruel, it's his loss, not yours.

[SKiLLsSoLoN]

Sounds like your friends has so much money he just dont not care, lol

[King Mayan]

Just rob him at gun point...

[underthe total]

matchbook is a must if you are capping and betting. the market moves around them in baseball so you will get the best price on the market for your games.