Baseball Handicapping Tips

aajreyno · 02-12-11, 03:46 AM

There is a ton of info you are going to need for this. I would suggest using fangraphs.com, scoresandodds.com, mlb.com and yahoo.com

dantanner · 02-15-11, 10:38 AM

I doubt any of that will help you win money. If that is your purpose, save yourself a lot of time and abandon the project.

If you want to make money, just take home dogs with good odds to win one out of a three game series.
If the odds are at +150 or better, you can profit no matter which game wins with little additional risk.

I don't care who wins in baseball as long as I do, and that's how I do it.

Terrapin Station · 02-15-11, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by aajreyno

There is a ton of info you are going to need for this. I would suggest using fangraphs.com, scoresandodds.com, mlb.com and yahoo.com

All great resources right there.

Regul8er · 02-15-11, 12:55 PM

Avoid laying juice of -150 or greater. I'm actually going to avoid laying juice all together this year.

Bullpens are very underrated when it comes to capping. I tend to find great value on Wednesday/Thursday afternoon travel games, when the lineups get shuffled to give vets, catchers and nagging injuries some rest.

Squirrel · 02-15-11, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by Regul8er

Avoid laying juice of -150 or greater. I'm actually going to avoid laying juice all together this year.

Bullpens are very underrated when it comes to capping. I tend to find great value on Wednesday/Thursday afternoon travel games, when the lineups get shuffled to give vets, catchers and nagging injuries some rest.

This. The sport is just tooo random to justify laying juice IMO, especially once you start topping -150. Concentrate on finding dogs in the right spots and you're on your way. Also helps to remember its basically a 50-50-62 sport .. every team from the best to the worst wins 50 and loses 50, its the other 62 that decide the standings.

EXhoosier10 · 02-15-11, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by dantanner

I doubt any of that will help you win money. If that is your purpose, save yourself a lot of time and abandon the project.

If you want to make money, just take home dogs with good odds to win one out of a three game series.
If the odds are at +150 or better, you can profit no matter which game wins with little additional risk.

I don't care who wins in baseball as long as I do, and that's how I do it.

I don't get this... what if you win the 3rd game? -1, -1, +1.5 = -.5... that's a loss if it happens on the 3rd game of the series, no?

Squirrel · 02-15-11, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

I don't get this... what if you win the 3rd game? -1, -1, +1.5 = -.5... that's a loss if it happens on the 3rd game of the series, no?

At a guess i'd say its a 3 game chase, the underdog odds mean the risk wouldnt be as great as it would if you were chasing no the -250 Redsox or something.

BGboothA · 02-15-11, 01:46 PM

anytips are appreciated, never really got into betting baseball but think i will give it a go this year.

RaginCajun · 02-26-11, 03:10 AM

ive never really bet in general, but i know baseball the most and would be the easiest for me to get information about. well football too but we still need to see if there is even a season in 2011

Willie Bee · 02-26-11, 07:31 AM

Identifying good 'under' teams or parks is one thing to consider taking the time to keep up with. The suggestion to not play favorites above -150 is also sound.

JR007 · 03-02-11, 06:01 PM

do not bet against streaks...if a team breaks a winning or losing streak bet on them the second game

BWest · 03-03-11, 10:01 AM

Do not underestimate the cross-country factor. When LA, Sea, SF, SD, Oak, Angels go from a HOME stand to an East coast (EST) series, the first game is frequently a home team win regardless of pitching match-ups. Someone pointed out bullpens as a factor. This is HUGE in correctly capping MLB. Just ask the KC Royals whose bullpen sucked and blew tons of leads last season.

Reno Gambler · 03-08-11, 09:56 PM

I have never seen stats for 1st 5 innings on SP's and offense.
I like to bet 1st 5 innings

tigerpaws · 03-08-11, 10:43 PM

Here's something to remember when betting on Baseball :

1) Eliminate any game where the underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row Or the favorite has won 3 or more games in a row. You just gotta remember that every team goes on losing and winning streaks.

2) Eliminate games where the moneyline for the underdog is higher than +150 and if you see a ML this high, you know there has gotta be a reason why.

3) Eliminate games where the underdog is facing a VERY good pitcher. If they are facing a pitcher who is in the top 20 of MLB you should move on to another game. (Remember we are talking ERA's)

Yes,you would eliminate alot of games, but your chances of winning would increase..

Just a thought and helpful hint..BOL!!

OnlyMayo · 03-08-11, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by tigerpaws

Here's something to remember when betting on Baseball :

1) Eliminate any game where the underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row Or the favorite has won 3 or more games in a row. You just gotta remember that every team goes on losing and winning streaks.

2) Eliminate games where the moneyline for the underdog is higher than +150 and if you see a ML this high, you know there has gotta be a reason why.

3) Eliminate games where the underdog is facing a VERY good pitcher. If they are facing a pitcher who is in the top 20 of MLB you should move on to another game. (Remember we are talking ERA's)

Yes,you would eliminate alot of games, but your chances of winning would increase..

Just a thought and helpful hint..BOL!!

Nice...