Mebaran's 2011 MLB

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • mebaran
    SBR MVP
    • 09-16-09
    • 1540

    #141
    Interesting news about the Dodgers. Apparently Selig and the MLB are taking over the team. Guess that means they are out of the Pujols race....that only leaves the Mets (who are also in financial trouble), the Phillies (who are already set with 1B), and the Cardinals and Cubs. hmmm...
    Comment
    • mebaran
      SBR MVP
      • 09-16-09
      • 1540

      #142
      Just to carry forward, no plays for today. Tonight I will post plays for 4/22
      Comment
      • mebaran
        SBR MVP
        • 09-16-09
        • 1540

        #143
        Plays for 4/22:
        Rays -120
        Red Sox -110
        Dodgers -125
        Astros +185


        Taking a stroll on the wild side with Figueroa on the hump for the 'stros.
        Comment
        • mebaran
          SBR MVP
          • 09-16-09
          • 1540

          #144
          adding:
          LAD/CHC Over 8 -115

          Outfield is soggy, but wind is blowing E at 15-20 mph, and Coleman is far from good
          Comment
          • bhssoccer89
            SBR Sharp
            • 06-17-10
            • 291

            #145
            lets get hella runs, hopefully some in the first inning
            Comment
            • mebaran
              SBR MVP
              • 09-16-09
              • 1540

              #146
              Originally posted by bhssoccer89
              lets get hella runs, hopefully some in the first inning
              Does somebody have a 1st inning bet in play?

              I hope they score early and often just so the game doesn't have a chance of being rain out undered...
              Comment
              • Punter4Life
                SBR High Roller
                • 11-20-10
                • 175

                #147
                I like the Tigers tonight.
                Comment
                • mebaran
                  SBR MVP
                  • 09-16-09
                  • 1540

                  #148
                  Originally posted by Punter4Life
                  I like the Tigers tonight.
                  Interesting. I was leaning towards the Chi-Sox actually, but it is a no play for me at this price
                  Comment
                  • bhssoccer89
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 06-17-10
                    • 291

                    #149
                    i am doing a small first inning system it works pretty well and it made profit last year
                    Comment
                    • mebaran
                      SBR MVP
                      • 09-16-09
                      • 1540

                      #150
                      Today's results: 3-2, +0.80 units
                      Overall: 52-50-4, +0.44 units


                      May have a few plays tomorrow pending all pitcher adjustments from the rainouts today
                      Comment
                      • mebaran
                        SBR MVP
                        • 09-16-09
                        • 1540

                        #151
                        Plays for 4/23:
                        White Sox -116
                        Red Sox -104
                        Dodgers +113
                        ATL/SF Over 6 -120
                        Comment
                        • mebaran
                          SBR MVP
                          • 09-16-09
                          • 1540

                          #152
                          ^ Two of the HOTTEST hitters in the whole league (Ethier, Kemp) up against the Cubs righty Ryan Dempster. Called last night's game between them correctly, and I feel Dodgers are on a huge roll here.

                          Note: A lot of the time, when the Cubs are playing at home, the price on them is inflated. When in doubt on picking a game involving the Cubs at home, fade the north-siders. If you did this blindly, I wouldn't be surprised if you were + units by the end of the year.

                          on everyone's plays today.
                          Comment
                          • mebaran
                            SBR MVP
                            • 09-16-09
                            • 1540

                            #153
                            Shouldn't really be giving this to all of you, but I'm in a generous mood right now. The following is what you would have made betting against the Cubs every time they were at home for the past 580 Cubs home games:

                            SU: 304-276 (0.2 rpg)
                            average line: -148 / +133
                            on / against: -$9,168 / +$5,600
                            ROI: -10.4% / +9.1%

                            Feel free to expand on this if you want.
                            Comment
                            • bhssoccer89
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 06-17-10
                              • 291

                              #154
                              everyone knows to fade the cubs because they are such a let down team im sick of it
                              Comment
                              • mebaran
                                SBR MVP
                                • 09-16-09
                                • 1540

                                #155
                                Originally posted by bhssoccer89
                                everyone knows to fade the cubs because they are such a let down team im sick of it
                                That, and I feel like there is something else in play. Public teams (Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, etc.) tend to have their home field advantages blown up too large.
                                Comment
                                • mebaran
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 09-16-09
                                  • 1540

                                  #156
                                  adding:
                                  PHI/SD Under 3.5 1st 5 innings -110
                                  Comment
                                  • BeatingBaseball
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 06-30-09
                                    • 904

                                    #157
                                    I was looking to fade the Dodgers in this series and take Chicago largely because the Cubs wouldn't see Kershaw, they had shown some life coming off losses these first few weeks, they had a day off coming in versus the Dodgers hitting the road playing their 15th, 16th and 17th consecutive games without an off day - and also in consideration of the general team turmoil surrounding the Dodgers' ownership situation.

                                    I sure can't say I had it right -lost with the Cubs yesterday on a horrible performance by Coleman and got very lucky with them today with that 5 run 8th after Dempster had blown the early 5-1 lead. But coming off today's comeback win and with the way Zambrano has been throwing of late (esp at Wrigley) I do believe the Cubs get the series tomorrow.

                                    Looking ahead to Monday - I see even greater opportunity to fade LA in the FLA series (esp if they're coming off a loss to Zambrano) where they'll be playing their 18th, 19th and 20th consecutive before finally getting an off day Thursday. I think they'll lose at least 2 of the 3 to what is a very solid Florida club (notwithstanding today's loss to the Rockies).
                                    Comment
                                    • mebaran
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 09-16-09
                                      • 1540

                                      #158
                                      Originally posted by BeatingBaseball
                                      I was looking to fade the Dodgers in this series and take Chicago largely because the Cubs wouldn't see Kershaw, they had shown some life coming off losses these first few weeks, they had a day off coming in versus the Dodgers hitting the road playing their 15th, 16th and 17th consecutive games without an off day - and also in consideration of the general team turmoil surrounding the Dodgers' ownership situation.

                                      I sure can't say I had it right -lost with the Cubs yesterday on a horrible performance by Coleman and got very lucky with them today with that 5 run 8th after Dempster had blown the early 5-1 lead. But coming off today's comeback win and with the way Zambrano has been throwing of late (esp at Wrigley) I do believe the Cubs get the series tomorrow.

                                      Looking ahead to Monday - I see even greater opportunity to fade LA in the FLA series (esp if they're coming off a loss to Zambrano) where they'll be playing their 18th, 19th and 20th consecutive before finally getting an off day Thursday. I think they'll lose at least 2 of the 3 to what is a very solid Florida club (notwithstanding today's loss to the Rockies).
                                      Yeah, people wonder why I get upset when they claim baseball players don't really need to be in shape...are you kidding? Guys like Ethier, Kemp, the meat and potatoes guys, will maybe get 5 games off a year if healthy. It's unbelievable how conditioned they are. Much respect.

                                      Will take a deeper look at the LAD/FLA series.
                                      Comment
                                      • mebaran
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 09-16-09
                                        • 1540

                                        #159
                                        Today's games: 3-2, +0.84 units
                                        Overall: 55-52-4, +1.28 units


                                        Was on the Rockies as well, but play was not posted. Tough loss in the Cubs game, tough loss in the Bulls game, but positive units for the day.
                                        Comment
                                        • mebaran
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 09-16-09
                                          • 1540

                                          #160
                                          Plays for Easter Sunday:
                                          Rockies +135
                                          COL/FLA Over 6.5 -125
                                          Padres +175
                                          Comment
                                          • mebaran
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 09-16-09
                                            • 1540

                                            #161
                                            Today's results: 1-2, -1.00 units
                                            Overall: 56-54-4, +0.28 units
                                            Comment
                                            • mebaran
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 09-16-09
                                              • 1540

                                              #162
                                              Plays for 4/25:
                                              Yankees -187
                                              CHW/NY Over 10 -105
                                              Rangers -155
                                              Athletics +139
                                              ATL/SD Over 6.5 -120
                                              Comment
                                              • mebaran
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 09-16-09
                                                • 1540

                                                #163
                                                My model spit out some large favorites as plays for 4/25. Should be interesting.
                                                Comment
                                                • mebaran
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 09-16-09
                                                  • 1540

                                                  #164
                                                  Lines are in agreement with every play except the ATL/SD Over 6.5

                                                  If anyone is interested in tracking the closing lines in this thread, it would be pretty helpful.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • bhssoccer89
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 06-17-10
                                                    • 291

                                                    #165
                                                    How does your model not know that Phil humber is going to no hit the yanks
                                                    Comment
                                                    • mebaran
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 09-16-09
                                                      • 1540

                                                      #166
                                                      Originally posted by bhssoccer89
                                                      How does your model not know that Phil humber is going to no hit the yanks
                                                      Because my model is not self-aware...yet. Definitely a strange night in baseball.

                                                      Yesterday's plays went a depressing 1-4, -4.67 units
                                                      Overall: 57-58-4, -4.39 units

                                                      May or may not have some plays today, leaning on the side of none because I haven't had any chance to look.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • bhssoccer89
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 06-17-10
                                                        • 291

                                                        #167
                                                        Haha I posted that in hopes it would be a jinx and the yankees would break out but no such luck
                                                        Comment
                                                        • mebaran
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 09-16-09
                                                          • 1540

                                                          #168
                                                          Originally posted by bhssoccer89
                                                          Haha I posted that in hopes it would be a jinx and the yankees would break out but no such luck
                                                          Thanks for playing your part. LOL!

                                                          Note: Officially not dispersing any plays for today. Will be back on later tonight to post some plays for overnight lines for the 4/27 games.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • mebaran
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 09-16-09
                                                            • 1540

                                                            #169
                                                            Originally posted by mebaran

                                                            Thanks for playing your part. LOL!

                                                            Note: Officially not dispersing any plays for today. Will be back on later tonight to post some plays for overnight lines for the 4/27 games.
                                                            Taking one more day off. I was out watching the Bulls and Hawks games and haven't gotten any capping in. I promise I'll have plays for Thursday's games!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • mebaran
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 09-16-09
                                                              • 1540

                                                              #170
                                                              Plays for 4/28:
                                                              Royals +145
                                                              KC/CLE Under 9 -125 (2 UNITS)
                                                              Tigers -1.5 +175

                                                              Good luck today everyone
                                                              Comment
                                                              • bhssoccer89
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 06-17-10
                                                                • 291

                                                                #171
                                                                Fml I took the over by mistake
                                                                Comment
                                                                • bhssoccer89
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 06-17-10
                                                                  • 291

                                                                  #172
                                                                  Originally posted by bhssoccer89
                                                                  Fml I took the over by mistake
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • mebaran
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 09-16-09
                                                                    • 1540

                                                                    #173
                                                                    -4.50 units today, taking a break. Will be back for some weekend games when I have some more time to cap them.

                                                                    Overall: 57-61-4, -8.89 units

                                                                    OUCHHHH!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • mebaran
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 09-16-09
                                                                      • 1540

                                                                      #174
                                                                      On a good note...both my fantasy baseball teams are smashing faces because of Bautista
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Punter4Life
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 11-20-10
                                                                        • 175

                                                                        #175
                                                                        Originally posted by mebaran
                                                                        -4.50 units today, taking a break. Will be back for some weekend games when I have some more time to cap them.

                                                                        Overall: 57-61-4, -8.89 units

                                                                        OUCHHHH!
                                                                        Hang in there.

                                                                        Originally posted by mebaran
                                                                        On a good note...both my fantasy baseball teams are smashing faces because of Bautista
                                                                        Good for you!
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        Search
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...