Ryangene's Plays

dalupus · 07-20-11, 08:03 PM

and in the future I am not playing the lad for anything. I heard on the broadcast last night hey hadn't scored in the first inning since last month. Luckily I missed that bet a few days ago so I still haven't had to max bet. also after the first loss I play to win an amount even if the odds are positive.
for instance today I only had to bet $365.50 to win $530. it can make a big difference especially with these high odds if you are doubling them every time. for every $ I don't risk today that is 2 $'s I don't have to risk tomorrow. or 4 $'s the next day...

lad vs sfg was like a perfect storm. neither team scores all that much in the first. I am pretty sure there is a site that can give you a % of times teams score in the 1st inning. Maybe lets filter out teams under like 20% I am pretty sure lad is like 12 or 13% I remember reading that somewhere.

G's pks · 07-20-11, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by Ryangene

I don't expect people do do s#*t to be honest with you. If anyone has followed this system the past few years they are just as baffled as I am with this.

$1,372 balance right now for me.

Because the two teams split I am going to find out / talk with the original person who thought up the system and see what it does here. My guess is because the series split they will both be bets... TBD I guess.

But if you start with a new base you should be able to build it back up...seriously the repeated doubling of a system even after it reached its limit seems unnessary if over the long term it wins...

Ryangene · 07-20-11, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by dalupus

and in the future I am not playing the lad for anything. I heard on the broadcast last night hey hadn't scored in the first inning since last month. Luckily I missed that bet a few days ago so I still haven't had to max bet. also after the first loss I play to win an amount even if the odds are positive.
for instance today I only had to bet $365.50 to win $530. it can make a big difference especially with these high odds if you are doubling them every time. for every $ I don't risk today that is 2 $'s I don't have to risk tomorrow. or 4 $'s the next day...

lad vs sfg was like a perfect storm. neither team scores all that much in the first. I am pretty sure there is a site that can give you a % of times teams score in the 1st inning. Maybe lets filter out teams under like 20% I am pretty sure lad is like 12 or 13% I remember reading that somewhere.

maybe teamrankings.com not sure? LAD has to be maybe 3% lol...

Ryangene · 07-20-11, 08:29 PM

But G when I have a bank of 2K and starting fresh might be breaking even from when I started. Not sure if odds are in my favor or not but LA has to score in the 1st sooner or later. Someone in the weeds must be a jinx who is it???

Ryangene · 07-21-11, 10:29 AM

$1,372 balance right now for me

YES STL/NYM +105
$40 to win $42

NO SDG/FLA -150
$75 to win $50

YES DET/MIN +120
$25 to win $30

Split the Oakland/Detroit losses up

LAD don't play today so have some time to decide what to do there...

Ryangene · 07-22-11, 08:57 AM

So it will be today the bets below. The bets end up half-way restarting. A person could start fresh BUT i'm going to roll with the punches and do the half way and not start back at a $20 bet.

LAD- YES- $200 bet
Min/Det- YES $40 or so bet
SD/FL- NO $to win $150
SanF- YES- $200 bet

Will be back to post later.

Ryangene · 07-22-11, 03:01 PM

YES - WAS/LAD SC 1ST INN +135
$200 to win 270

YES - DET/MIN SC 1ST INN -105
42 to win 40

YES - MIL/SFO SC 1ST INN +135
200 to win 270

NO - NYM/FLA SC 1ST INN -120
$120 to win 100

NO - SDG/PHI SC 1ST INN -150
$150 to win $100

Ryangene · 07-22-11, 09:32 PM

Stinks that we had to lose so much on the previous days BUT feels good to get something back with the wins tonight. Bankroll still took a hit but will be back again tomorrow with the plays. Going out to have some morgan cokes!

RITZ · 07-23-11, 09:48 AM

The Dodgers just can't hit whether it's the first inning or any inning. Glad to see Wash do it vs LAD.
What are the avg odds of any game yes/no scoring in 1st innings?

Ryangene · 07-23-11, 09:54 AM

I have tried to go thru the spreadsheet and find out the yes vs. the no's.... I really thought teamrankings website would have but i couldnt find

RITZ · 07-23-11, 10:04 AM

This from hoselrocket at Covers-
(RE: Will A Run Be Scored IN The 1st Inning)
"Just to be a little clearer, the NO has come in 53% of the time and the Yes has come in 47% percent of the time this season. (Thru this past Thursday) I don't know the average odds on the NO bet but I can estimate it is around -140 to -150. With that being said, if you bet no on every game the juice would kill you..........not to mention the 3% loss."

he adds-"- It's a tough bet because of the vig. If it were a 10% line it wouldn't be so tough, but the average line is usually -150 / +120.
- Some teams such as SD & WAS rarely score runs in the 1st inning (16% each) but they give up a run in the 1st 42% and 35% of the time respectively. Meanwhile a team such as DET scores a run in the 1st 31% of the time but only allows a run 15% of the time.
-Pitching is of course key but some guys with decent W/L records and ERA's will give up 1st inning runs. Anibal Sanchez for the Marlins is 4-1 and has an ERA of 2.60, yet he has allowed runs in 60% of his starts and another one tonight against AZ.
-Some teams and pitchers are predictable and follow the norm as you would expect; CIN, NYY FLA and TOR score and give up a lot of 1st inning runs. OAK, BAL and both LA teams score few and give up few 1st inning runs.
I put together a program to track all of this.

Ryangene · 07-23-11, 10:59 AM

Great INFO!

Ryangene · 07-23-11, 11:04 AM

$1874 Balance right now..

NO - ATL/CIN SC 1ST INN -120
$24 to win $20

YES - LAA/BAL SC 1ST INN -125
$25 to win $20

NO - NYM/FLA SC 1ST INN -130
$260 to win $200

NO - STL/PIT SC 1 INN -140
$28 to win $20

sunshine777 · 07-23-11, 11:56 AM

I'm feeling the next run. Keep it up Ryan

Ryangene · 07-23-11, 06:26 PM

Thanks dude at least Back above 2K again....

Ryangene · 07-24-11, 08:37 AM

$2,090 Balance will be just 1 play today...

NO - ATL/CIN odds still to come Bet will be TO WIN $44

Ryangene · 07-24-11, 11:06 AM

NO - ATL/CIN SC 1ST INN -105
$52.50 to win $50

GL

dalupus · 07-24-11, 11:09 AM

looking good

I actually never quite hit a max bet with the lad debacle since I was playing to win instead of laying and I missed that one day. So I am still up quite a bit on the year. so basically what I was doing was this:

say we had sf and lad we lost 100 the day before on each now today they are both positive
so I would bet like 175 to win 200 on one and 190 to win 200 on the other
they both lose again. now I simply look and see which one has the best odds and use that against the 380 I need to make and the worse odds against the 350. doing this it cuts down how much I am risking considerably and ends up the same. of course I only play this when they are on the same streak.

hope that explanation makes sense

Dal

by they way I just picked up atl/cin on bodog
NO atl/cin -125 $55 to win $44

Ryangene · 07-24-11, 07:25 PM

Damn 2 out homerun. Dal your theory makes 100% sense. Think that is the easier way to do it. I have both Bodog and Diamond both and take whatever book gives me the better odds also.

dalupus · 07-25-11, 09:44 AM

no I guess I didn't explain correctly. I was not referring to the best odds of the book but the best off the 2 games odds. mainly this comes into play after a split. like if we split then play to win a certain amount if the odds are + and switch them around to minimize risk. I'll point it out when we come across another real world example which may be soon.
Dal

Ryangene · 07-25-11, 10:29 AM

$2037.50 Balance going into Monday July 25th. Just seems like I'm rolling My Diamond account and building up points there.

G's pks · 07-25-11, 11:18 AM

Good job bouncing back to even after a rough spot...as long as you have a balance that can withstand a bad run and do not over react seems like this could pay off...GL

Ryangene · 07-25-11, 12:47 PM

You could be right G... But i have gotten a few messages that people had to drop out. Things get crappy when you don't have a 2K balance to start with. However people just have to use their own system. If I'm putting up $22 to win $20... Maybe they want to do 1/2 of what I'm able to do and do $11 to win $10.

Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh NO Score

Cincinatti vs. NY Mets NO SCORE

Because of Atlanta and Cinci now splitting series they will both be bets and will be $50 bets or so as well.

G's pks · 07-25-11, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by Ryangene

You could be right G... But i have gotten a few messages that people had to drop out. Things get crappy when you don't have a 2K balance to start with. However people just have to use their own system. If I'm putting up $22 to win $20... Maybe they want to do 1/2 of what I'm able to do and do $11 to win $10.

Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh NO Score

Cincinatti vs. NY Mets NO SCORE

Because of Atlanta and Cinci now splitting series they will both be bets and will be $50 bets or so as well.

Sorry to hear that but you are right...they really need to adjust to what they can afford...something like this will happen..it happens to all of us...GL..

Ryangene · 07-25-11, 02:26 PM

Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh NO Score -140
$70 to win $50

Cincinnati vs. NY Mets NO SCORE -120
$60 to win $50

Ryangene · 07-25-11, 08:41 PM

$2137.50

Balance, lets go again and build it up!

dalupus · 07-26-11, 08:22 AM

here we go again

I am personally up over 60 units now on this system

Thanks a ton.
(my personal totals are different from the official labby one because I have missed a bet here and there and every now and again I put an extra 0 on my bet. uggg)

Still would like to get a look at the spread sheet you are going off of.

Ryangene · 07-26-11, 08:37 AM

Anyone know how to zip or cut down a spreadsheet and send via email? I could try do it that way. I try and send via email a few times BUT the file is too large.

Ryangene · 07-26-11, 08:44 AM

2 Plays today. IF these hit there will be ZERO plays for tomorrow as just looked ahead and seeing that nothing looking like its going to fit the system...

Score in the 1st

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit -- YES

Washington Nationals vs. Floria -- NO

dalupus · 07-26-11, 09:02 AM

if you have a gmail account you could simply share it from your documents then just post a link in here. I know a few sbr members do that.

or you can use dropbox or something like that.

I am assuming both of todays plays are for $20?

Ryangene · 07-26-11, 01:43 PM

YES - DET/CWS SC 1ST INN +EV
$20 to win $20

NO - FLA/WAS SC 1ST INN -135
$27 to win $20

Ryangene · 07-27-11, 10:59 AM

NO - FLA/WAS SC 1ST INN -135
$54 to win $40

GL
$2130.50 balance

dalupus · 07-27-11, 02:16 PM

shouldn't this be to win $54?

Ryangene · 07-27-11, 09:26 PM

again just going by what the "famous" spreadsheet and post that I get tells me.

Ryangene · 07-28-11, 09:46 AM

$2170.50 balance

Zero Plays today... Might not be anything tomorrow looking forward as well...