I am new to baseball capping, but I hope I can contribute something to this discussion before the season starts. Good information all around here 
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You can't say I didn't warn you that I could go on a long time, so here goes:
Among the many things about baseball that distinguish it from other sports, there are a couple which I think have a really significant impact on its handicapping. First and foremost is the fact that the emphasis on statistics in baseball is far greater than in any other sport. The second is the substantial influence of pure chance in the game.
Baseball games break down to innings and innings break down to ABs. And because pure chance is a big factor in the outcome of any given AB, chance (pure luck) can often bear heavily on the outcome of any given baseball game. Once contact is made, the fate of a batted ball is generally far less under the control of any of the participants than that of a football, a basketball or a puck that is put in play.
That second distinction - the greater influence of pure chance - is I believe responsible for the fact that, in any given game, the weaker team in terms of true talent/ability has a better chance of winning any single MLB contest than any equivalent matchup in pro basketball, football or hockey. Over 162 games, it’s easy to see the difference between a good team and a bad one - but get down to any 5 games and it’s a lot tougher since the best will win 3 and the worst win 2. When you get down to 1 game it really gets tough. And, unfortunately, for the most part, that's exactly how we bet them - one game at a time.
The combination of baseball being stat intensive and luck intensive (short term) creates quite a paradox. Although we put great emphasis on the stats and the stats do prove to be reliable and meaningful in the long term – the shorter term numbers we use for handicapping are often misleading because they reflect a hell of a lot of pure chance. It is a paradox that mirrors the ‘Moneyball’ argument that has been raging within the game itself for the last twenty years re the reliance on scouting or sabermetrics. Do you go with the stats (Beane-iacs) or do you go with what you see and believe (scouts)?
When you handicap the way I do you find yourself always trying to separate the effects of chance, the noise in the stats, from the actual signals that have predictive value. There's always some noise that's obscuring those signals. You look at a stat sheet that says a guy is hitting .250 at night, but .289 during the day. A fan or a broadcaster might look at that and say simply, “this guy is a much better hitter in day games.” As a handicapper, I look at it and say, “no question he has had better numbers in day games to this point - but do those numbers really have predictive value?” To me, it’s very possible the difference there is due to pure chance, that it’s just noise. Tougher yet, there could be 100 other stats like that to consider for any given game. So, because of the nature of baseball, when I have any doubt about the predictive validity of a statistical comparison, I always resolve it in favor of the dog side. I lean it that way because betting favorites in baseball means laying prices. If you're going to lay prices you have to do so for only solid and reliable reasons (and the higher the price the more solid and reliable those reasons better be).
What I’m getting at here is the “why” re the effectiveness of 5’s philosophy on betting baseball. The contrarian approach has proven effective in a broad spectrum of markets and you would expect it to be especially so in sports betting generally - where the books set the opening lines in consideration of the public’s predilection to bet favs and overs in every sport. But it is even more effective in baseball due to the nature of the game - the greater role that pure chance plays in both the production of the data and the outcome of any given single contest. When you go about betting baseball as a contrarian you are consistently defying the numbers and thereby exploiting both the inherent weaknesses in the stat sheet and the public’s superficial interpretation of what are so often weak, noisy numbers to begin with. So there’s a lot to be said for contrarianism. It makes a lot of sense.
There is also a logical basis for Lock’s reluctance to lay a price for road favorites. The last figures I saw showed home teams in MLB overall winning a shade over 52% of the games and road teams a shade under 48%. Although that’s not as significant a home advantage as the home field in the NFL (58% home winners) or home court in the NBA (66% home winners) - it’s still a very significant consideration when you compound the road disadvantage with laying a price.Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 02-01-11, 12:52 AM.Comment -
Excellent point about bases being luck intensive (short term). Love fading a pitcher with a lot of Wins, a low ERA that has in reality been very lucky.Comment -
Awesome analysis BB. The Contrarian Observation Tower is taking your text from your previous post and applying it to granite. Please continue with your expansive analysis, it is truly welcomed.
The Contrarian Mafia thanks you.
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Why can't TheJewBear come up with analysis like BB. Additional training might be in order.Comment -
BB clearly knows a thing or two about a thing or two. I could always post my "researched all day" locks, but I'll spare this thread until the season starts>
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Wish I could offer up angles/ideas like all that have so far....great thread
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No need to be intimidated by the overwhelming knowledge of the participants.Comment -
The Contrarian Observatory Tower will be going mobile on Opening Day. Posting live from Gulfstream Park. We need to get TheJewBear and TheDrewBear out for the festivities.Comment -
Thanks Lock, JewBear, 5''s.
And Lock - I think you said something that deserves a closer look:
To me, that's what it all comes down to - perception vs reality. The key to finding value is identifying what the “reality” is. In the case you describe - the guy’s ERA is better than he “really” is. His ERA is a number in which the truth has been obscured by chance - what I would call a noisy number.
Noisy numbers can work the other way as well. There are many times when a guy (or team) is significantly better than the numbers indicate. So you can miss a lot of opportunities if you only focus on over rated pitchers or clubs. Value does not always have to be on the dog side. You can find it in under priced favs as well (something pure contrarians sometimes overlook).
The biq question is - how do you identify the reality? The traditional way is by watching a lot of baseball. In the case of your over rated pitcher, a fundamental type capper who really knows the game and has seen that pitcher quite a bit might, for example, see that he’s been hanging a lot of change-ups but the hitters have been missing them and fouling them straight back or realize that guys have just been giving away ABs against him by swinging at bad pitches or maybe they’ve been putting men on base and crushing the ball on him but every rocket has been right at somebody. When you know baseball, you see things that will never be reflected in the stats (that’s why scouts get paid to watch baseball games). But the problem with that approach, at least for us, is obvious - there can be 15 games a day and none of us can see them all. What we really could use is a way to better see reality and truth in the numbers. And believe it or not – there is one. It’s one that I am integrating into my handicapping more and more.
I won’t go too far into it - but a word to the wise should be sufficient. There are now some new tools that can be very effective in more easily identifying the reality in a baseball matchup – a new set of numbers that are far less noisy and reflect a lot more truth. I referred to it in a previous post – it’s Sabermetrics.
If you think ERA is a less than perfect measure of a pitcher – you’re right. We know WHIP tells you more. But better yet – FIPS is an even sharper overall metric. And if you think a guy’s batting average is over stating his true ability – BABIP can tell you if you are right or wrong on that calculus.
Believe me - these new, better numbers are not just for fantasy baseball geeks. Big league front offices now use them to make decisions affecting tens of millions of dollars - and we can use them as well. It probably won’t last long, but these new metrics can give you a big edge in betting baseball right now because so many cappers and bettors, both sharps and squares, are still only looking at ERAs, WHIPs and BAs. They don’t yet understand the handicapping value of Sabermetrics and don’t know how to apply them. If you’re serious about betting this game and winning - I’d advise everyone here to look into it.Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 02-03-11, 11:44 AM.Comment -
will do BB, thanks for your post!Comment -
Opening day at Gulfstream...I will do everything in my power to make it, sounds like a blast. I'll be sure to brush up on my sabermetrics in the meantime
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Just a reminder, Opening Day is Thursday, March 31st.
In the words of Neil Armstrong, "One small step for man, One giant leap for the Contrarians"Comment -
xFIP is a wonderful stat to use. It works well towards the middle of the season because they league averages start to normalize.Comment -
Team Speed 2011
Although I’m one who likes great speed on a ball club, you don’t absolutely have to have it to win. It’s not like pitching. And that was proven again last year when the Giants won it all despite being one of the slowest teams overall - tying the Cubs for dead last in the game with only 55 steals. The SF CF Torres was really the Giants’ only legitimate threat to steal in 2010 and it doesn’t appear that's going to change for them in 2011.
That said - I always factor team speed into my handicapping. I love what it can do for a club - both offensively and defensively – esp in the bigger ballparks. It is of course a lot more important in the NL - where moving runners and plating a single run is more often the difference - but in either league speed erases a lot of mistakes and puts a lot more pressure on opposing pitchers and defenses. (Rickey Henderson may have had more overall influence on a game in which played than any non-pitcher in the history of baseball.) It’s a big edge for the manager who knows how to take advantage of it.
There will be a lot of matchups this year in which team speed will be the difference and - at least right now - here is what the overall speed picture looks like:
Top 5
Even with the loss of Carl Crawford the TB Rays are still by far the fastest team in MLB.
The next best is probably the Angels who have a lot of guys who can fly - esp this young CF Bourjos.
After that - it looks like the Mets, Mariners and Texas.
These clubs figure to have an edge in bigger ballparks, in low scoring games and vs ground ball pitchers.
Bottom 5
Jays, Braves, Cubs, Tigers, Giants.
When these lineups face a pitcher who can keep the ball on the ground – they figure to have real trouble scoring.Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 02-05-11, 04:14 PM.Comment -
This is actually a team that I'm following intently. They will do some damage this year...that is to say, they will do some damage if they don't do damage to themselves (Kendry Morales is back from that horrible, terrible injury that dealt a huge blow to the team).
Watch out for the Halos this year, boys.
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Good morning Contrarians. Today is the official day that NFL Football gets put to rest, which commences the MLB "play ball". The theories, the systems, the analysis truly begins. The Pair of 5s 2011 MLB will undoubtedly be a place for intense disussion and a few laughs, and of course, TONS of winners.
This year we are featuring a full cast of characters in the Contrariana Mafia, including yours truly. We feature BeatingBaseball with his indepth analysis. Trust me, BB has forgotten more than we will ever know collectively.
TheLock, who is in charge of pharmaceutical research for the Contrarian Observation Tower, keeping us posted on the latest developments.
TheJewBear, who is in charge of catering. On late nights, while sweating the west coast games, he provides a spread (kosher only) that mama would be proud of.
TheDrewBear, who is still missing in action, due to his matriculation of no ending bounds.
As you can see, the cast is ready, the curtain is about rise.
Beware O Contare
The ContrarianComment -
what's the best thing about the super bowl???
baseball season is right around the corner!!!Comment -
Couldn't help but notice the M's dropped from +4000 to +6600 for the pennant on dimes...starting to look very very contrarian!!
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I would like to use this thread to discuss who will win next year's Super Bowl One day closer Contrarians to MLB. The Contrarian Observation Tower is awaiting the divisional lines and the season win totals.
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Pitchers and catchers reporting real soon boysComment -
Just stumbled across this thread, and it looks like a great place to stop by daily! Can't wait to contribute, aces are soon on the way to Florida!Comment -
Abe give us a winner, pal. Common one time.Comment -
Looking forward to your selections, Pair of 5's! BOL!Comment -
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Looking forward to seeing what kind of slugging Mike Stanton can post with a full seasonComment -
Couldn't be more with you on Stanton, Lock - expecting a very big year from him. We're hearing a lot of stuff about Hanley Ramirez being not only in great physical shape coming in but also sporting a completely new attitude. It's said that Hanley has promised Rodriguez a big year. If all that proves out - Stanton will benefit greatly from the lineup synergy.
We should see better ABs, more contact and fewer K's from the Marlins' lineup in 2011. That should mean more ducks on the pond and more FBs for the big RBI sticks. Stanton figures to put up some big numbers.
Combine that with better overall speed/better defense/better bullpen - and things could get interesting in South Florida.Comment -
BB, on behalf of Governor Rick Scott, all Floridians thank you for the analysis.Comment -
Go fish!!!!Comment -
Governor Rick Scott can lick my balls but that's for another thread.
Speaking of the Marlins.... as many of you know this will be the last season they (and their fans) have to deal with baseball in a football stadium.
The new stadium looks incredible. I'll try and post some updated video in here later.Comment
