Something that was pretty profitable during NFL season, durito suggested it was betting on winless teams to cover the spread. I dont' remember what week it was but winless teams covered the spread more often than not. I think it was week 8, maybe week 9. I also looked at teams which had won 1 game. From week 8 or 9 to the end of the season this was a pretty good bet.
I am thinking that perhaps in MLB it might be profitable to bet winless teams who are winless fairly deep into the season. Question is, how far into the season does it take for the linesmakers to get totally biased against a winless team? 0 and what? I'm thinking 5. I'm thinking of betting the moneyline on teams that are winless after 5 games if they are a big dog, prolly > +200.
If I can find the data I will run a simulation on this going back a few years to see what the optimum number of losses without a win is.
I am thinking that perhaps in MLB it might be profitable to bet winless teams who are winless fairly deep into the season. Question is, how far into the season does it take for the linesmakers to get totally biased against a winless team? 0 and what? I'm thinking 5. I'm thinking of betting the moneyline on teams that are winless after 5 games if they are a big dog, prolly > +200.
If I can find the data I will run a simulation on this going back a few years to see what the optimum number of losses without a win is.