Bet on winless teams who are big dogs blind on the moneyline after how many games?

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  • curious
    Restricted User
    • 07-20-07
    • 9093

    #1
    Bet on winless teams who are big dogs blind on the moneyline after how many games?
    Something that was pretty profitable during NFL season, durito suggested it was betting on winless teams to cover the spread. I dont' remember what week it was but winless teams covered the spread more often than not. I think it was week 8, maybe week 9. I also looked at teams which had won 1 game. From week 8 or 9 to the end of the season this was a pretty good bet.

    I am thinking that perhaps in MLB it might be profitable to bet winless teams who are winless fairly deep into the season. Question is, how far into the season does it take for the linesmakers to get totally biased against a winless team? 0 and what? I'm thinking 5. I'm thinking of betting the moneyline on teams that are winless after 5 games if they are a big dog, prolly > +200.

    If I can find the data I will run a simulation on this going back a few years to see what the optimum number of losses without a win is.
  • teazeman
    SBR Sharp
    • 12-27-07
    • 318

    #2
    i know a guy that lost close to 10 dimes with this strategy a few yrs ago...i think the braves lost 6 or 8 right out of the gate, he dug all yr and never got back to even, of course i have no statistical data to back up your theory one way or the other.
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    • curious
      Restricted User
      • 07-20-07
      • 9093

      #3
      Originally posted by teazeman
      i know a guy that lost close to 10 dimes with this strategy a few yrs ago...i think the braves lost 6 or 8 right out of the gate, he dug all yr and never got back to even, of course i have no statistical data to back up your theory one way or the other.
      Yeah, betting on only one team you could get killed. I'm saying bet blind on all winless teams after a certain number of losses. It will take some data to figure out how many losses.
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