Yankees\Phillies To Advance To WS -- Unload...Thank Me Later

thebestthereis · 10-13-10, 06:45 PM

inside information series price plays of the decade

ShowMeDaMoney · 10-13-10, 09:22 PM

I made no claims of inside information, nor giving time lines for how good of a bet it was... all I'm saying is I think it's a damn solid bet - a Yankees\Phils rematch has seemed like destiny the entire year to me, and certainly it's becoming closer and closer to a reality.

Texas not having their rotation in the right order definitely is huge... if you're Texas and go into game one with Lee, you expect to walk away a winner. Now you have to wait until game three for your ace.

dukeblue888 · 10-13-10, 09:36 PM

yankees and the over

fsfalcons · 10-13-10, 10:53 PM

giants are gonna win the nlcs

phLLyphan11 · 10-13-10, 10:59 PM

I'm worried about the Giants...should be a great series. I could see any of the 4 teams advancing. Can't wait to see it play out.

ShowMeDaMoney · 10-13-10, 11:17 PM

Giants have quite the task ahead of them, they are used to have a clear cut starting pitcher advantage, and that just won't be the case against Philly. They couldn't score many runs on the lowly Braves, and their staff is a joke compared to Philly's.

raiders32 · 10-13-10, 11:19 PM

I think Yankees and Phillies make the World Series too. But I hope neither does. Don't like either team.

Plu$Money · 10-13-10, 11:20 PM

Phillies/rangers.. Like you said yanks line is too low. I just don't see the books Giving away phillies and Yankees world series again. Seems to me that they are trying to get action on the yanks and the giants

jcubs55 · 10-13-10, 11:24 PM

It doesn't really take balls to predict a rematch of last years world series with the two favorites all along... no one needs to be thanking you for anything, no offense of course...

kidkonggolf · 10-14-10, 12:09 AM

Even though I'd rather see Giants make the WS...I agree that Philly/NY Yankees is inevitable. Bol

ShowMeDaMoney · 10-14-10, 12:10 AM

Originally posted by jcubs55

It doesn't really take balls to predict a rematch of last years world series with the two favorites all along... no one needs to be thanking you for anything, no offense of course...

Like I said I'm not doing anything crazy or thinking outside the box that much, but clearly as represented on this forum plenty of people expect one of these two teams to get knocked off.

ShowMeDaMoney · 10-14-10, 12:11 AM

Giants scored an average of 2.75 runs a game against the Braves staff and vulnerable bull pen.... if they repeat that type of production, they don't stand a shot in this series.

PlatinumBerg · 10-14-10, 12:18 AM

Interesting opinion, what makes you so confident?

RibbedTrojan · 10-14-10, 12:49 AM

Yanks and Philly in World Series

ShowMeDaMoney · 10-14-10, 01:32 AM

ALDS Stats : Obviously a small sample size.... but, the Yankees are just playing better ball right now and the numbers show it.

Rangers Team Batting AVG .264
Yankees Team Batting AVG .305

4 of 9 starters for game 5 for Rangers batted .200 or lower in the series, that's almost half their line up. The Yankees have one batter hitting .200 or under this post season, Gardner. Hamilton, a huge part of the Texas offense is batting .111 and does not appear to be fully healthy.

Rangers 21 Runs in 5 Games = 4.2 runs per game
Yankees 17 runs in 3 games = 5.6 runs per game

Rangers 37 hits in 5 games = 7.4 hits per game
Yankees 33 hits in 3 games = 11 hits per game

Rangers 12 walks in 5 games = 2.4 walks per game
Yankees 8 walks in 3 games = 2.6 walks per game

Rangers 4 HR's in 5 games = 0.8 HR per game
Yankees 4 HR's in 3 games = 1.33 HR per game

Pitching Faced In ALDS (Any Pitcher that pitched twice had his season information put in twice, everyone else once)
Tampa's Pitching : Starters 3.96 ERA 1.285 WHIP Pen 3.32 ERA 1.59 WHIP
Minny's Pitching : Starters 3.64 ERA 1.256 WHIP Pen 3.48 ERA 1.28 WHIP

Yankees faced a better pitching staff in every single category but one.... yet still managed to produce 3.5 more hits per game, .2 more walks per game, and scored 1.4 more runs per game. They have a better offense, and many of their hitters have produced year after year in the post season.

It's a small sample size quite clearly, but I see a Yankees team that faced tougher pitchers all around, and still managed to out produce Texas in every single offensive category, some by a decent margin.

Just a day ago alot of people were hammering Tampa in game 5, because they thought Texas would be unable to put up runs. Are some of the Yankee doubters the same people that couldn't trust Texas' offense to score enough to give Cliff Lee a win in game five? Survey says.... YOU BET YOUR ASS THEY ARE!

I understand the arguments for Texas, they swept the Yankees at home at the end of the season, held up real well at home against NYY. The Yankees were playing their worst ball of the year during the stretch in which this series too place, and had their garbage pitchers on the mound.

New York's rotation is set up the way they want it, Texas' isn't. New York has pitchers that have long time proven they can pitch in the playoffs, Texas beyond Lee does not. The CC\CJ games are going to be huge, I'll take CC with that offense behind him. If Texas pulls off a split of those games, we could easily be headed towards a game 7, which clearly Texas would have the edge should it happen.... but I just don't see them getting it back to game 7 giving Lee an opportunity to send them to the World Series.

Something that doesn't show up on paper that is most definitely a talking point is the EXPERIENCE. The Yankees are a playoff team. They make it every year, and everyone on their team has been here, and done that before - they aren't going to lose games, you're going to have to beat them. Texas on the other hand, has far less experience and IMO are more capable of giving the Yankees extra chances, making mental errors, choking under pressure... and defeating themselves.

It should be a great series, but I think in the end the Yankees mystique and experience is just too much for Texas to handle. The Yankees figure out a way to win ball games, period. Many people are citing the fact that the Yankees have a tough time against lefties. They faced a pretty damn good leftie in Liriano in round one, and he was able to control them for a while... but still ended the game having given up 4 runs in 5 2\3. They wear people down, make each at bat count... try to stay in games, and then go on full attack once they get the opposing starter out of the game. Give the Yankees a lead in the 9th, or even sometimes the 8th... and you're facing the best closer in post season history, by a freakin mile!

I'm definitely not counting Texas out, but I do believe the Yankees are a better team, tried and tested in the post season. On Texas' side, if you get a bad series out of a few key players... you're looking at a very flat offense. On the contrary, the Yankees have always had guys in the past step up and perform well above their season stats to carry the weight if the stars aren't performing in the post season. Granderson carried quite a load last series, batting .455.... who will carry them next series if needed? Who knows... but my guess is someone will come up big when they need it.

Prey · 10-14-10, 02:04 AM

tracking you down and raping you if you dont hit this. if you do, i'll thank you and bow.

jcubs55 · 10-14-10, 03:57 AM

Originally posted by ShowMeDaMoney

Like I said I'm not doing anything crazy or thinking outside the box that much, but clearly as represented on this forum plenty of people expect one of these two teams to get knocked off.

Fair enough, gl sir

Vastey · 10-14-10, 04:50 PM

I hope TEX vs PHI in WS, but think that NYY vs PHI.

2Bdown · 10-15-10, 12:05 AM

GL ShowMe, Im with ya on this one

ShowMeDaMoney · 10-15-10, 02:20 AM

Originally posted by 2Bdown

GL ShowMe, Im with ya on this one

Let's cash up baby! Between the bet I put at the start of the year on the Yankees to win the ALCS +110 odds and the parlay (Philly\NYY to advance to WS) I have enough on the line, and would be happy enough with my return if it comes in... that I don't have to bet on single games. I just gotta grind out the series and watch the two faves advance to a WS that to me has seemed like destiny from the beginning.

Good luck all..... hop on now if you're going to, a Philly or Yankee win, or both, in game 1 will drastically **** your odds. I think tomorrow after CC wins game 1 on the road, and the home field is taken away.... people are going to wish they had bet the Yankees series line before the series started, you're lookin at awful awful odds to play around with if CC comes through tomorrow.

-275 on NYY if he wins tomorrow is not out of the question at all....maybe even higher

ShowMeDaMoney · 10-16-10, 12:12 AM

Originally posted by jcubs55

It doesn't really take balls to predict a rematch of last years world series with the two favorites all along... no one needs to be thanking you for anything, no offense of course...

Hey man, like I said I'm not proposing anything radical in parlaying the favorites in these two series', but if it were that easy of a bet... everyone would be on it, right? If it's such an easy, surely you threw a few units on it right? No offense of course...

Look back in the thread, nearly every reason I gave for why the Yankees were an absolutely phenomenal bet at -160 (hell, I'd have taken it at -220) came true, and we're only 1 game into the series. Mental errors by Texas : see 9th inning with tieing run on first. Lack of production from star players, but the Yankees pull out a victory with timely walks, and production from the bottom of the order.

Yankees 1-4 batters, 3-18 ~ .166 batting average, but they draw the walks where they need to and get production from the bottom. They don't need the big stars to have huge games every night.. they figure out a way to win.

Texas' pen got hammered, despite a great outting from wilson. Mr Automatic despite putting the tieing run on, and getting absolutely hosed on what should have been a called strike for out two, finishes the game.

Wasn't the prettiest win in the world, CC looked like absolute shit and they couldn't get anything going through seven. But once they get to that Texas pen, it's gonna be a heart attack of a situation for the Rangers everytime, even if they somehow manage to pull off a W.