MLB Playoff Betting Preview: Yankees versus Twins
Despite their starting rotation looking ragged down the stretch, the New York Yankees are MLB betting favorites to take down Joe Mauer and the Twins in their ALDS that starts Wednesday.
Once again, MLB schedule makers have cut the New York Yankees a break in their quest for a World Series title.
Given the way their starting rotation is performing, the Yankees (95-67 SU, -4.61 units) can ill afford to use more than three starters in the American League Division Series against the Minnesota Twins (94-68 SU, +13.19 units), and it looks like they’ll get their wish.
Game 1 between New York and Minnesota goes on Wednesday night (8:37 PM ET) at Target Field, with Game 2 set for Thursday night (6:07 PM ET). The Wild Card-winning Yanks and AL Central champion Twins then take a day off before Saturday night’s Game 3 (8:37 PM ET) at Yankee Stadium, while Game 4, if necessary, is scheduled for Sunday.
If a Game 5 is needed, it won’t be played until Tuesday back in Minneapolis. That means New York can start ace CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA) in the opener, bring him back on three days' rest in a potential Game 4, and use Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA) in Game 2 and then in Game 5 on regular rest.
Had the powers that be penciled in a potential do-or-die Game 5 for Monday, Joe Girardi would have had to find another starter to pitch at some point in the series. After Sabathia, Pettitte, and likely Game 3 starter Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA), the Yankees’ rotation is seriously thin.
If it wasn’t for the two days off over the five games, Girardi would have to hand the ball to either A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.30 ERA), Javier Vazquez (10-10, 5.32 ERA), Dustin Moseley (4-4, 4.96 ERA), or Ivan Nova (1-2, 4.50 ERA). That would be brutal for New York backers.
Instead, the Yanks are the smart MLB money line wager as -165 favorites to win the ALDS and advance to the League Championship Series, even if there’s value in the Twins at +145.
Of course, New York caught the same break last season en route to its 27th world championship. The Yankees rode Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte all the way to a six-game win over Philadelphia in the World Series.
To be fair to New York, some of its good fortune is offset by Sabathia’s ability to pitch effectively on three days rest. The big lefthander will have had a week off when he takes the mound on Wednesday night against Minnesota’s Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA).
Oddsmakers have the Bronx Bombers as -135 money line chalk for Game 1, while the total is on the betting odds board at 7.5. The Twins are priced as +125 underdogs.
Sabathia allowed one run over eight innings to get the win in New York’s 6-1 victory at Toronto last Tuesday, as the Yankees improved to 23-11 in his 35 starts this season.
Liriano has a 3.46 ERA in two outings against New York this season, but he stumbles into the playoffs with an 0-3 record and 8.10 ERA in his last three starts.
Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA) is Minnesota’s starter in Game 2, and like Liriano he’s hurting Twins bettors lately. Minnesota is only 2-6 against the money line in Pavano’s last eight trips to the hill, as the righthander has put up a 7.31 ERA in his last three starts.
After Liriano and Pavano, Ron Gardenhire has a choice between Brian Duensing (10-3, 2.62 ERA), Scott Baker (12-9, 4.49 ERA), and Kevin Slowey (13-6, 4.45 ERA) for Game 3 and 4.
My take is Duensing has the inside track to get the call on Saturday, while Slowey will likely get the nod over Baker on Sunday. Liriano would face Pettitte in Game 5 if the series gets that far.
Both clubs stagger into the playoffs. The Yankees dropped two of three at Boston over the weekend to fall to 3-8 in their last 11 games, while the Twins lost three of four at home to Toronto to roll into the ALDS at 2-8 in their last 10 contests.
New York won the season series 4-2, including a 2-1 mark at both Target Field and Yankee Stadium. The Yanks swept the Twins in the 2009 ALDS.
Justin Morneau (concussion) has been ruled out of the series. Jason Kubel (foot) is day to day for Minnesota but is expected to be in the lineup on Wednesday.
Despite their starting rotation looking ragged down the stretch, the New York Yankees are MLB betting favorites to take down Joe Mauer and the Twins in their ALDS that starts Wednesday.
Once again, MLB schedule makers have cut the New York Yankees a break in their quest for a World Series title.
Given the way their starting rotation is performing, the Yankees (95-67 SU, -4.61 units) can ill afford to use more than three starters in the American League Division Series against the Minnesota Twins (94-68 SU, +13.19 units), and it looks like they’ll get their wish.
Game 1 between New York and Minnesota goes on Wednesday night (8:37 PM ET) at Target Field, with Game 2 set for Thursday night (6:07 PM ET). The Wild Card-winning Yanks and AL Central champion Twins then take a day off before Saturday night’s Game 3 (8:37 PM ET) at Yankee Stadium, while Game 4, if necessary, is scheduled for Sunday.
If a Game 5 is needed, it won’t be played until Tuesday back in Minneapolis. That means New York can start ace CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA) in the opener, bring him back on three days' rest in a potential Game 4, and use Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA) in Game 2 and then in Game 5 on regular rest.
Had the powers that be penciled in a potential do-or-die Game 5 for Monday, Joe Girardi would have had to find another starter to pitch at some point in the series. After Sabathia, Pettitte, and likely Game 3 starter Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA), the Yankees’ rotation is seriously thin.
If it wasn’t for the two days off over the five games, Girardi would have to hand the ball to either A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.30 ERA), Javier Vazquez (10-10, 5.32 ERA), Dustin Moseley (4-4, 4.96 ERA), or Ivan Nova (1-2, 4.50 ERA). That would be brutal for New York backers.
Instead, the Yanks are the smart MLB money line wager as -165 favorites to win the ALDS and advance to the League Championship Series, even if there’s value in the Twins at +145.
Of course, New York caught the same break last season en route to its 27th world championship. The Yankees rode Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte all the way to a six-game win over Philadelphia in the World Series.
To be fair to New York, some of its good fortune is offset by Sabathia’s ability to pitch effectively on three days rest. The big lefthander will have had a week off when he takes the mound on Wednesday night against Minnesota’s Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA).
Oddsmakers have the Bronx Bombers as -135 money line chalk for Game 1, while the total is on the betting odds board at 7.5. The Twins are priced as +125 underdogs.
Sabathia allowed one run over eight innings to get the win in New York’s 6-1 victory at Toronto last Tuesday, as the Yankees improved to 23-11 in his 35 starts this season.
Liriano has a 3.46 ERA in two outings against New York this season, but he stumbles into the playoffs with an 0-3 record and 8.10 ERA in his last three starts.
Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA) is Minnesota’s starter in Game 2, and like Liriano he’s hurting Twins bettors lately. Minnesota is only 2-6 against the money line in Pavano’s last eight trips to the hill, as the righthander has put up a 7.31 ERA in his last three starts.
After Liriano and Pavano, Ron Gardenhire has a choice between Brian Duensing (10-3, 2.62 ERA), Scott Baker (12-9, 4.49 ERA), and Kevin Slowey (13-6, 4.45 ERA) for Game 3 and 4.
My take is Duensing has the inside track to get the call on Saturday, while Slowey will likely get the nod over Baker on Sunday. Liriano would face Pettitte in Game 5 if the series gets that far.
Both clubs stagger into the playoffs. The Yankees dropped two of three at Boston over the weekend to fall to 3-8 in their last 11 games, while the Twins lost three of four at home to Toronto to roll into the ALDS at 2-8 in their last 10 contests.
New York won the season series 4-2, including a 2-1 mark at both Target Field and Yankee Stadium. The Yanks swept the Twins in the 2009 ALDS.
Justin Morneau (concussion) has been ruled out of the series. Jason Kubel (foot) is day to day for Minnesota but is expected to be in the lineup on Wednesday.
