Leans for Tuesday where the lines say it all

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  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #1
    Leans for Tuesday where the lines say it all
    Washington +120
    Detroit -142
    Cincinnati -160
    Tampa RL -120
    Kansas City +108
    San Francisco RL -115

    All of these lines, to me, seem at least 10 cents off -- if not more. Washington should be at least +135 vs. Oz. Celebration hangover for Philly. Detroit is 1-6 in Cleveland, yet they're -142? Cincy shouldn't be favored by that much over Wandy; they typically struggle vs. lefties. Reds clinch. Tampa should be about even vs. Bergesen, who's red hot lately. Why are they favored by so much? Price dominates. Royals about +120. Twins continue to struggle without Mauer. SF RL at - money? Take it.

    Also like:
    Seattle -119
    Pittsburgh +145
    Possibly Cubs again (+142), though I doubt it
  • dskibin2
    SBR Sharp
    • 07-09-09
    • 313

    #2
    I like the orioles to stay close tonight, bergesen has been throwing very well
    Comment
    • HoulihansTX
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 02-12-09
      • 30566

      #3
      Don't play Pitt on the road? Been a losing wager for about 5 years and running.
      Comment
      • No coincidences
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-18-10
        • 76300

        #4
        Originally posted by HoulihansTX
        Don't play Pitt on the road? Been a losing wager for about 5 years and running.
        Just a shot in the dark, Houli, like most MLB is these days.

        Comment
        • sweethook
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-21-07
          • 12667

          #5
          funny how things will go the last few days
          Comment
          • azn624
            SBR MVP
            • 06-29-09
            • 2771

            #6
            I like TB and SF rl's for tonight
            Comment
            • No coincidences
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-18-10
              • 76300

              #7
              Notice that KC went from +122 to +102 this morning, despite the public being on Minnesota.

              Line movement does not support my TB lean, or Washington, or SF.

              Does back Cubs so far, though.
              Comment
              • Crnjak
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 03-11-09
                • 588

                #8
                for me Tampa Bay ML huge play!
                Comment
                • Pauulzcappin
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 04-23-10
                  • 20295

                  #9
                  Seattle is gonna lose today.
                  Comment
                  • lunchbawks
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 01-31-10
                    • 12873

                    #10
                    mets- craziest line movements today
                    Comment
                    • No coincidences
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-18-10
                      • 76300

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Pauulzcappin
                      Seattle is gonna lose today.
                      Probably.
                      Comment
                      • High3rEl3m3nt
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 09-28-10
                        • 8022

                        #12
                        Posted this is another thread...watch out!

                        BOL...not so sure on the Mariners tonight, even though King Felix is taking the mound against a struggling Feldman, whose fighting for the last rotation spot. The Mariners have only won three road games in a row once this year and out of all the teams Felix has faced, against the Rangers, he has put in the most IP@32, suffered the highest ERA@5.06 (+2 ERA higher than the next team), and has only won one of his 5 starts against them. The number that truly stands out is the whopping 18 earned runs the Rangers have scored on him. If you combine all of the earned runs that he has given up to other AL teams, where he put in double digit IP (7 of 'em), it totals 18 ER. I want him to win tonight but it might be worth passing on this. BOL either way!
                        Comment
                        • ALLSP2525
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 09-27-10
                          • 7

                          #13
                          Dont know about that washington pick...they did get shutout..but phillie on fire..
                          Balt has been fighting lately...but tampa got shutout..last night
                          I like San Fran, since there are in first..shaky
                          I like the yankees tonight and the under
                          Scared of latos...
                          like Seattle Again tonight
                          colorado-over
                          like min..to snap the 4game losing streak....over might be the best bet
                          Like Boston Again tonight
                          like the cinci game over as well as st louis...*

                          Just my summary of todays games..and what Im leaning towards...*
                          Love the o/u at 8.5/9.5/ and 10....seems...to go over
                          Comment
                          • ALLSP2525
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 09-27-10
                            • 7

                            #14
                            true but...is Texas gonna play all of there players ?? Seems like they are resting players....Felix is going after that era title...* Bucholtz only a cpl points behind him....* idk...all of them are toss ups...
                            Comment
                            • kidk
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 03-22-09
                              • 879

                              #15
                              Originally posted by azn624
                              I like TB and SF rl's for tonight

                              love tampa bay tonight
                              Comment
                              • ahhlenn
                                Restricted User
                                • 04-13-10
                                • 444

                                #16
                                No Coin, i notice that we share a similar angle at capping games and that is why when i see that you have a thread up, i always drop in and take a peep. keep up the good work man...

                                btw i'm leaning towards a possible one unit play on the Nats...
                                Comment
                                • Power Play
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 02-01-10
                                  • 1224

                                  #17
                                  Liked feast or famine Dempster against slumping Latos +150 or higher (last night)
                                  Seattle's worth a shot. Don't particularly like Reds at that price. Detroit is risky at that price on the road even with a wacky Indian starter on the hill plus Cabrera is out. Pirates are almost an autofade on the road. Tough card today in my opinion.
                                  Comment
                                  • mister bee
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 04-23-09
                                    • 199

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by No coincidences
                                    Washington +120
                                    Detroit -142
                                    Cincinnati -160
                                    Tampa RL -120
                                    Kansas City +108
                                    San Francisco RL -115

                                    All of these lines, to me, seem at least 10 cents off -- if not more. Washington should be at least +135 vs. Oz. Celebration hangover for Philly. Detroit is 1-6 in Cleveland, yet they're -142? Cincy shouldn't be favored by that much over Wandy; they typically struggle vs. lefties. Reds clinch. Tampa should be about even vs. Bergesen, who's red hot lately. Why are they favored by so much? Price dominates. Royals about +120. Twins continue to struggle without Mauer. SF RL at - money? Take it.

                                    Also like:
                                    Seattle -119
                                    Pittsburgh +145
                                    Possibly Cubs again (+142), though I doubt it
                                    Hey man, quick question for ya: you say the Cin line and the TB line are too high, yet you lean that way anyway. I'm trying to figure out the logic. Are the books trying to get people to bet the other side?
                                    Comment
                                    • Kraghen
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 07-08-10
                                      • 2509

                                      #19
                                      MIN-C-Mauer-Doubtful
                                      Comment
                                      • bretb27
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 03-21-10
                                        • 714

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by No coincidences
                                        Washington +120
                                        Detroit -142
                                        Cincinnati -160
                                        Tampa RL -120
                                        Kansas City +108
                                        San Francisco RL -115

                                        All of these lines, to me, seem at least 10 cents off -- if not more. Washington should be at least +135 vs. Oz. Celebration hangover for Philly. Detroit is 1-6 in Cleveland, yet they're -142? Cincy shouldn't be favored by that much over Wandy; they typically struggle vs. lefties. Reds clinch. Tampa should be about even vs. Bergesen, who's red hot lately. Why are they favored by so much? Price dominates. Royals about +120. Twins continue to struggle without Mauer. SF RL at - money? Take it.

                                        Also like:
                                        Seattle -119
                                        Pittsburgh +145
                                        Possibly Cubs again (+142), though I doubt it
                                        why are you on the rays after saying this? I'm confused

                                        I like the plays, just don't know what you meant with the above quote.
                                        >54%
                                        Comment
                                        • No coincidences
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-18-10
                                          • 76300

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by mister bee
                                          Hey man, quick question for ya: you say the Cin line and the TB line are too high, yet you lean that way anyway. I'm trying to figure out the logic. Are the books trying to get people to bet the other side?
                                          Originally posted by bretb27
                                          why are you on the rays after saying this? I'm confused

                                          I like the plays, just don't know what you meant with the above quote.
                                          The only thing Vegas likes more than a sucker fave bet is a sucker dog bet. You have to be able to sniff those out. Not saying Houston or Baltimore won't win -- it is baseball, after all -- but I think oddsmakers are trying to get us to see value in backing Wandy or Bergesen when there may in fact be no value there.
                                          Comment
                                          • mister bee
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 04-23-09
                                            • 199

                                            #22
                                            [QUOTE=No coincidences;6597681]The only thing Vegas likes more than a sucker fave bet is a sucker dog bet. You have to be able to sniff those out. Not saying Houston or Baltimore won't win -- it is baseball, after all -- but I think oddsmakers are trying to get us to see value in backing Wandy or Bergesen when there may in fact be no value there.[/

                                            Cool. That's what I thought the logic was. I'm trying to add a little more line movement capping into my arsenal. Seems you and lakerboy are pretty good at sniffing these things out.
                                            Comment
                                            • fox sixers
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 02-07-10
                                              • 821

                                              #23
                                              Yeah I do believe Rays and Reds win tonight., May parlay them
                                              Comment
                                              • fox sixers
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 02-07-10
                                                • 821

                                                #24
                                                Actually.. probably wouldn't bet on Rays tonight.. That line at -240... Bergesen in how he has been pitching lately, is capable of shutting Rays down. Do I think that happens? no. I think Rays win.. but to me not worth a play
                                                Comment
                                                • fox sixers
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 02-07-10
                                                  • 821

                                                  #25
                                                  Rays do not have a philly crowd... believe me.. and that makes a difference... that's why I feel like it's more reasonable to lay more chalk on the phillies.. I mean.. even when phillies are away.. they sometimes take over the game with their fans like they did last night in Washington
                                                  Comment
                                                  • CHAZ
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-09-09
                                                    • 4978

                                                    #26
                                                    Good luck with your bets tonight no coin

                                                    Comment
                                                    • No coincidences
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 01-18-10
                                                      • 76300

                                                      #27
                                                      My final plays:

                                                      Cincinnati
                                                      Tampa Bay RL
                                                      Seattle
                                                      San Diego
                                                      San Francisco RL

                                                      A lot of chalk, but eff it.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • No coincidences
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 01-18-10
                                                        • 76300

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                        Washington +120
                                                        Detroit -142
                                                        Cincinnati -160
                                                        Tampa RL -120
                                                        Kansas City +108
                                                        San Francisco RL -115

                                                        All of these lines, to me, seem at least 10 cents off -- if not more. Washington should be at least +135 vs. Oz. Celebration hangover for Philly. Detroit is 1-6 in Cleveland, yet they're -142? Cincy shouldn't be favored by that much over Wandy; they typically struggle vs. lefties. Reds clinch. Tampa should be about even vs. Bergesen, who's red hot lately. Why are they favored by so much? Price dominates. Royals about +120. Twins continue to struggle without Mauer. SF RL at - money? Take it.

                                                        Also like:
                                                        Seattle -119
                                                        Pittsburgh +145
                                                        Possibly Cubs again (+142), though I doubt it
                                                        That's a 7-0 night on leans, folks.

                                                        Why in the fvck did I add SD and not play all of these joints?

                                                        Comment
                                                        • Rixsaw
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 10-23-08
                                                          • 4532

                                                          #29
                                                          Awesome job.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • No coincidences
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 01-18-10
                                                            • 76300

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Rixsaw
                                                            Awesome job.
                                                            My final plays were listed above, Rixsaw.

                                                            4-1, but blew too much on Pads. Profit, but not nearly the + money I'd have with my initial leans.

                                                            I fvcking hate the Scrubs with a passion.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • lakerboy
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 04-02-09
                                                              • 94379

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                              My final plays were listed above, Rixsaw.

                                                              4-1, but blew too much on Pads. Profit, but not nearly the + money I'd have with my initial leans.

                                                              I fvcking hate the Scrubs with a passion.

                                                              why did you take pads ml?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Rixsaw
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 10-23-08
                                                                • 4532

                                                                #32
                                                                yeah...some teams just enjoyed being the spoiler. I think they players want to play for this manager. The owner should give his a 1 year deal to see how he does.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Rixsaw
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 10-23-08
                                                                  • 4532

                                                                  #33
                                                                  I would take 4-1 any given night.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • No coincidences
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 01-18-10
                                                                    • 76300

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by lakerboy
                                                                    why did you take pads ml?
                                                                    Taking the RL of a home team in a 6.5 total game scared the shit out of me, LB.

                                                                    Turns out it was irrelevant anyway. Sharps were dead wrong about SD tonight.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • No coincidences
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 01-18-10
                                                                      • 76300

                                                                      #35
                                                                      As for why I took the Pads at all after I initially leaned Cubs, I started thinking about SD being -150/155 in a 6.5 game, which to me meant they were the play. Then late money came in on the Pads, and I was hooked.

                                                                      Comment
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