September 24th 2010 : MLB picks and analyses
Pick: Oakland Athletics -104
The Rangers are struggling losing 4 of their last 5 games as they cruise into the playoffs. Their purpose right now is to set up the rotation and get the key offensive players completely healed. Oakland has won 5 of the last 6 meetings and tonight they throw a lefty starter that the Rangers have never seen, Bobby Cramer. Cramer has looked good in his first two starts with an impressive 2.45 ERA in winning both games. On the season Texas hits 15 points worse against left-handed starters and they have played much poorer ball when taking to the road. The price is right to back the youngster here.
Pick: Florida Marlins +135
Florida is showing excellent value Friday as a big underdog against Milwaukee. Mark Rogers makes his first start of the season for the Brewers, and there’s no way he should be this big of a favorite. The Marlins are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record and 17-7 in their last 24 vs. a team with a losing record overall. Florida is 22-22 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season. So given those numbers, they’ve made bettors a lot of money in the role of the road dog. The Marlins actually have played their best baseball on the road, sporting a 40-38 road record. Milwaukee is just 38-40 at home this year. Take the Marlins on the Money Line.
Pick: Orioles vs. Blue Jays Under 9
The Orioles enter Toronto after taking two of three games from the Red Sox in Boston. Baltimore has won three of their last four games and six of their last nine games overall. They swept Toronto in a 3-game series in Baltimore last week. Chris Tillman makes the start for the Orioles. He’s 1-4 with a 6.42 ERA in nine outings, six of which have gone Under the total. Tillman’s last road start was a no-decision against Detroit where he gave up one run and one hit in 6.7 innings pitched. The righty pitched against the Blue Jays back in May and gave up two runs and six hits in 5.7 innings of work. Ironically, Tillman has faced the Blue Jays in Toronto in all three of his career starts against them. Vernon Wells (0-9), Aaron Hill (2-9), Adam Lind (2-9), John McDonald (0-2), and Travis Snider (0-1) have poor numbers against the Orioles starter. Toronto has gone Under the total in four of their last five games and Under in six of their last nine games overall. Brett Cecil’s last six starts have been against the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees two times apiece. He’ll be glad to pitch against the light-hitting Baltimore Orioles tonight. The lefty gave up two runs and four hits in eight innings pitched against the Orioles back in May. Adam Jones (2-8), Nolan Reimold (1-4), Brian Roberts (0-3), Ty Wigginton (0-3), and Matt Wieters (0-3) all have poor numbers against the lefty. Baltimore has gone Under the total in 30 of their 47 games against left-handed starters while hitting just .247 against them. They’ve lost all six games in Toronto this season while hitting just .215 as a team. The Orioles have gone Under in seven of their last 10 games, and we expect them to play another low-scoring game in Toronto tonight.
Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5
The Atlanta Braves are getting into must-win territory, and there is no better starter to handle this pressure than Tim Hudson. He is having a Cy Young-worthy year for Atlanta, going 16-8 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.124 WHIP in 32 starts. Washington goes with Jordan Zimmerman tonight, who has lacked control issues and has had a hard time getting anyone out this year. Zimmerman is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in 5 starts this season. Few teams have dominated the Nationals like Hudson has. Atlanta’s starter is a superb 10-1 with a 1.55 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 17 career starts vs. Washington. Hudson has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 16 of those 17 starts, and he has gone at least 6.2 innings in 16 of those 17 contests as well. Now that’s domination. I fully expect the Braves to get their bats going tonight against Zimmerman, and for Hudson to come up big and shut down this weak Nationals line-up. Roll with the Braves on the Run Line Friday.
The Rangers are struggling losing 4 of their last 5 games as they cruise into the playoffs. Their purpose right now is to set up the rotation and get the key offensive players completely healed. Oakland has won 5 of the last 6 meetings and tonight they throw a lefty starter that the Rangers have never seen, Bobby Cramer. Cramer has looked good in his first two starts with an impressive 2.45 ERA in winning both games. On the season Texas hits 15 points worse against left-handed starters and they have played much poorer ball when taking to the road. The price is right to back the youngster here.
Pick: Florida Marlins +135
Florida is showing excellent value Friday as a big underdog against Milwaukee. Mark Rogers makes his first start of the season for the Brewers, and there’s no way he should be this big of a favorite. The Marlins are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record and 17-7 in their last 24 vs. a team with a losing record overall. Florida is 22-22 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season. So given those numbers, they’ve made bettors a lot of money in the role of the road dog. The Marlins actually have played their best baseball on the road, sporting a 40-38 road record. Milwaukee is just 38-40 at home this year. Take the Marlins on the Money Line.
Pick: Orioles vs. Blue Jays Under 9
The Orioles enter Toronto after taking two of three games from the Red Sox in Boston. Baltimore has won three of their last four games and six of their last nine games overall. They swept Toronto in a 3-game series in Baltimore last week. Chris Tillman makes the start for the Orioles. He’s 1-4 with a 6.42 ERA in nine outings, six of which have gone Under the total. Tillman’s last road start was a no-decision against Detroit where he gave up one run and one hit in 6.7 innings pitched. The righty pitched against the Blue Jays back in May and gave up two runs and six hits in 5.7 innings of work. Ironically, Tillman has faced the Blue Jays in Toronto in all three of his career starts against them. Vernon Wells (0-9), Aaron Hill (2-9), Adam Lind (2-9), John McDonald (0-2), and Travis Snider (0-1) have poor numbers against the Orioles starter. Toronto has gone Under the total in four of their last five games and Under in six of their last nine games overall. Brett Cecil’s last six starts have been against the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees two times apiece. He’ll be glad to pitch against the light-hitting Baltimore Orioles tonight. The lefty gave up two runs and four hits in eight innings pitched against the Orioles back in May. Adam Jones (2-8), Nolan Reimold (1-4), Brian Roberts (0-3), Ty Wigginton (0-3), and Matt Wieters (0-3) all have poor numbers against the lefty. Baltimore has gone Under the total in 30 of their 47 games against left-handed starters while hitting just .247 against them. They’ve lost all six games in Toronto this season while hitting just .215 as a team. The Orioles have gone Under in seven of their last 10 games, and we expect them to play another low-scoring game in Toronto tonight.
Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5
The Atlanta Braves are getting into must-win territory, and there is no better starter to handle this pressure than Tim Hudson. He is having a Cy Young-worthy year for Atlanta, going 16-8 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.124 WHIP in 32 starts. Washington goes with Jordan Zimmerman tonight, who has lacked control issues and has had a hard time getting anyone out this year. Zimmerman is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in 5 starts this season. Few teams have dominated the Nationals like Hudson has. Atlanta’s starter is a superb 10-1 with a 1.55 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 17 career starts vs. Washington. Hudson has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 16 of those 17 starts, and he has gone at least 6.2 innings in 16 of those 17 contests as well. Now that’s domination. I fully expect the Braves to get their bats going tonight against Zimmerman, and for Hudson to come up big and shut down this weak Nationals line-up. Roll with the Braves on the Run Line Friday.