What am I missing here? I know most look at this price and say..."well, that's too high" It's not about price, it's about probabilities. There can be value at any price depending on the probabilities. Roy Halladay has owned Atlanta and the only 2 runs given up were courtesy of Chipper Jones solo shots this year. Last I checked Chipper ain't playing tonite. Braves rookie pitcher Minor has come back down to earth recently after a decent start. Minor was pitching for Vanderbilt last season in the SEC and now is going to be counted on for a good game in the most hostile environement he has ever seen. I just don't see it for Atlanta tonite. The Phillies are hot and motivated at the moment with the superior team and the superior pitcher... I am a homer, but a Braves homer and that is what I see. Line should be more like -350 imo.
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High juice is not my style but I do think the line does slightly favor the Phillies in this one. I think Haliday wins more than 69 percent (slightly more maybe like 70 percent?) it takes to profit from this line long term in this spot. So if you want heavy favorites now may be a spot. However first time pitchers have an advantage over batters. So don't break the bank on then Phillies.Comment -
Oh, I agree. I am just talking about a standard bet. Not an all in or bet your home. If your a $100 bettor than bet $100. No guarantees I agree. Braves might just sneak up and bitch slap Halladay.. I doubt it but it happens.. However, considering these circumstances.. Philly at home with probably the best fans in baseball right now, playing with the best team arguably in baseball with arguably the best pitcher in baseball against Minor and the Braves? Just standard odds gives a 1-2% edge as you suggest but when you account for the big picture I see more +EV than that in this scenario. Doesn't mean it works because Minor might pitch the game of his life and Phillies might just hit the ball right at people and if it gets into the BP's without the game being decided I think that favors the Braves.Comment -
if Minor wasnt a lefty I would recommend the RL. however, looks like u8 may be the route if the juice is too high.
It's not for me.
If you had been on the phils every time out this month, this -220 couldn't hurt you at all.
Halladay is a gamer and wanted the trade to be in this situation.
He might go CG SO tonight.
but, phils struggle against young pitchers they have never seen before, and against lefties, too. Minor fits both.
I love the Phils and I like the under.
BOL.
Maybe that's what ill put together.Comment -
Well I guess that explains it. Nobody else has struggled against Minor lately. He does have a very good change up at times. IMO if this is a 2-2 game after the 6th inning I like the Braves. Braves have the advantage in the BP but Philly has ever other card the Braves don't.Comment -
Philly RL is bet for me!Comment -
Good luck lyon,
How about Phils FF if you like the braves bp advantage?Comment -
Well im just thinking, first five erases any chance of a bullpen meltdown from the phils etc. Speaking of braves, they hit a major slide huh? Im hoping the rockies can sneak into the post season, when we had that thread around mid season when you mentioned the texas future, i put in a rockies future so hoping they can get in thereComment -
i like phily -1,5
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phillies ROLL!Comment -
Braves will win tonight. I would bet Braves at +205 all year long.Comment -
braves 2nd best team in the nl and an over 200 dog?Comment -
I have Braves +1.5....good luck either way.Comment -
Guys, where is a chart or something to translate odds to necessary win percentage? ThanksComment -
I'll give the runline a shot.Comment -
The top two team "experts" at covers are on ATL, FWIW.Comment -
How did you arrive at your "estimated expected value"? ....all of the halladay games are over-juiced and rarely offer value. In a must-win season-ending game for the braves....laying -220 has no value IMO...in fact its a -EV. I would take +205 or +1.5 for braves all season if offered.Comment -
Here are the variables (and handicapping is opinion based anyways):
1. Phillies are 51-28 at home this season while braves are 34-42 on the road. The 65 percent winning percentage at home alone deserve a -185 line everything held constant. The braves dismal road performance does nothing to change that.
2. Phillies are in EXCELLENT form. I watch many of their games on the east coast and they're on one of their streaks. The Braves are in mediocre form lately.
3. Minor is obviously vastly inferior at this point than Halliday.
4. Desperation in baseball is at times overstated. Desperate teams still have to hit a tiny round ball and Halliday is not just going to make it easy for them. Plus Phillies want to clinch up asap too so they can rest guys. Win this series and they can start coasting.
5. Phillies does struggle against left handers at times and this is Minor's first game against the Phillies, increasing the chance of a dominant start. That explains the relative low Halliday line (he's been over -300 at times this season).
All this said I thought (as stated above) that I think they win 69 to 70 percent of the time in same matchup (not all braves games, just this one with current form, homefield, and pitching factored in). The line does offer a slight Phillies advantage imo.Comment
