September 15th 2010 : MLB Picks and Analyses.

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  • Kraghen
    SBR MVP
    • 07-08-10
    • 2509

    #1
    September 15th 2010 : MLB Picks and Analyses.
    Pick: New York Mets -154
    On Wednesday the Free MLB Play is on the New York Mets. Game 912 at 7:10 eastern. The Mets fit a solid system here tonight that has cashed 20 of 24 times. The only thing that makes this a free play is the elevated line. What we want to do is play on certain home favorites off a home favored win at -140 or higher if they won by 5 or more runs with 10 or more hits vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs if they scored 2 or less runs with 5 or more men left on base. The Pirates are 1-14 as a road dog from + 125 to +150 and have lost 23 of 30 games against teams that are under .500. Plus the Pirates are hitting just .213 the past week. Pat Malholm makes the start her tonight and he has an era over 11 the past 3 starts. Tonight he takes on Mets rookie righty Meija. Look for the Mets to get this one here tonight. On Wednesday I have a 100% MLB Dog system and a 23-2 MLB Diamond Cutter Blowout system. Tuesday 6* Total. Congrats to those who jumped on. For the free play take the Mets. RV

    Pick: Chicago Cubs +1.5 -135
    The Cubs are playing some of their best baseball of the year, winning 13 of their last 20 and 8 of their last 12. Meanwhile, the Cards are slumping beyond what they could have ever imagined in the stretch run, dropping 20 of their last 29. In addition, Chicago has had great success against its biggest division rival, having won 4 straight in the series and 7 of 11 on the season. Chicago ace Carlos Zambrano has returned to form. He’s won his last 4 starts while not allowing more than 2 runs or 5 hits in those outings. Plus, Big Z has always thrown well against St. Louis. In fact, the Cubs are 16-5 in his last 21 starts vs. the Cardinals, including 6-0 in his last 6 road starts vs. the Red Birds. We also can’t overlook the fact that Chicago is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings when Zambrano faces Carpenter. It appears Carpenter is running out of gas. The Cards have lost 3 of his last 4 starts, and he was shelled for 6 and 8 runs in two of those defeats. Take the Cubs on the run line.

    Pick: Colorado Rockies -152
    The Colorado Rockies had one of their patented hot streaks going recently; unfortunately they picked a bad time to lose steam. With a chance to climb all over first place San Diego, the Rockies have unraveled like three dollar thru the washer and dryer in losing the first two games of the series and trail the Padres by four in the NL West and Atlanta by three in the loss column in the wild card chase. There failures in the series haven’t been for lack of offense as Colorado has lost 6-4 and 7-6, maintaining their hot-hitting that has led to 10-2 record. In the series finale, the Rocks hand the horsehide to Jorge De La Rosa (7-4, 4.10 ERA) whose won his last three decisions and lowered his ERA significantly. The Colorado left-hander will face the Pads Clayton Richard, who despite have 1.83 ERA in last three outings, has lost twice and San Diego has come up winless in his trio of starts. For Wednesday, look to play on home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, against opponent with starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last three outings. Talk about a scalding out of the microwave system, this MLB situation is 69-18 since 2006 and off the hook 13-0 THIS YEAR.

    Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Indians
    Prediction: Los Angeles Angels -122 odds

    The Angels had their four-game winning streak snapped last night by the Indians but they are in excellent shape to get it back tonight. Los Angeles is 11 games better than Cleveland including a game in home/road splits and that is pretty significant in the league as we rarely see a road team with more success than the home team. In this case it is not much but with a pitching edge, it adds to it which also adds to the value.

    Cleveland has been playing pretty average which has been the case the entire season and obviously playing at home gives it no advantages. Ever since sweeping Detroit back in mid-July, the Indians have gone only 10-19 in their last 29 home games and their near .500 record at home has pushed them to 10 games under .500. The pitching has been great of late but it has been negated by a putrid offense.

    Jered Weaver gets the call for Los Angeles and he has been able to maintain a very solid season despite laying for a losing team. He has a 3.02 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his 30 starts with the Angels going 15-15 in those games. His numbers are far worse on the road but that is mostly due to playing the really good teams as the Angels are 7-2 in Weaver’s last nine road starts against teams with a losing record. He currently leads the American League in strikeouts with 211.

    The Indians counter with Jeanmar Gomez who is having a very fine season in his limited action. He has made eight starts and posted a 3.07 ERA and he has been even better at home with a 1.50 ERA and Cleveland going 4-0 in his four home starts. This adds to the value of the Angels as well based no the contrarian angle in that undefeated record. The problem is that he has struggled of late with a 5.52 ERA in his last three starts.

    Weaver is 8-0 this season against teams with a winning percentage between .380 and .460 while the Indians are 0-11 this season against American League starters with a WHIP of 1.10 or better. 3*

    Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
    Pick: Under 8.5 Runs -110 odds

    Chicago righthander Gavin Floyd has been a very good pitcher the past three seasons (including most of 2010), but he can’t be happy with what has happened with his run support. In 2008, Floyd had very good support numbers, with 5.8 runs average per start. Last season, Floyd saw that number reduced by a full run to 4.8, and so far through his first 29 starts of 2010, Floyd’s support has nose-dived to 3.6 runs per start. Despite this lack of help from his hitters, Floyd still has a chance to top his 2009 win total of 11, as he comes into this game with 10 wins. Unfortunately, his team will be facing one of the hottest lefthanders in the AL in Minnesota’s Brian Duensing. To say that the 27-year-old southpaw has been a pleasant surprise since becoming a full-time member of the Twins rotation would be an understatement as Duensing has gone 8-2 with a 2.02 ERA this season. More bad news for the Sox chances to score runs tonight. Chicago is batting just .253 vs. lefties. The “Manny era” in Chicago hasn’t quite worked out as the outfielder acquired off waivers from the Dodgers has done virtually nothing since coming over to the Windy City and his roughly .290 batting average is deceiving when you consider the fact that every hit he’s had has been a single. He’s a non-factor. Look for a low-scoring game between the Twins & White Sox. I’m playing the Under on Wednesday.

    Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Indians
    Pick: Under 8 Runs -110 odds

    Jered Weaver makes his 31st start for the Angels this season as they continue their series with the Indians in Cleveland on Wednesday night. Weaver is 11-11 with a 3.06 ERA and 19 Unders in his 30 starts. The righty has given up five runs and 16 hits in his last 23 innings pitched. Weaver held the Indians to one run and seven hits in six innings of work in a start back in April. The last time Weaver pitched in Cleveland against the Indians, he went the distance after giving up seven hits in a 3-0 victory. Travis Hafner (1-18), Asdrubal Cabrera (3-16), Andy Marte (1-7), Chris Gimenez (0-4), and Jayson Nix (0-3) all struggle with Weaver. The Indians have played 10 straight games Under the total as their offense has scored just 24 runs over that span. They are hitting just under .215 as a team in their last eight games as well.

    Cleveland’s Jeanmar Gomez has enjoyed success this season when pitching at home. He’s 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four starts at Progressive Field giving up no more than two earned runs in any of those starts. The Angels have gone Under in two straight games and Under in five of their last seven games overall. The Angels are hitting right around .215 as a team in their last eight games. The Indians bullpen did the job last night and continued their success at home. Six of the seven meetings between these two teams have gone Under the total this year, and we expect another low-scoring game tonight between the Angels and Indians.
  • Kraghen
    SBR MVP
    • 07-08-10
    • 2509

    #2
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
    MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants -140 odds

    At 10:10 pm, our complimentary selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Los Angeles starter Chad Billingsley and San Francisco starter Matt Cain are two righthanders with almost identical records and ERAs under four runs, so you might be tempted to say they’re having comparable seasons. But the fact is that Billingsley and Cain’s seasons are going in pretty much opposite directions as the 2010 campaign winds down. Cain is poised to have 200 innings for the fourth season in a row, and he seems to be getting stronger as we go into September, with just one walk in each of his last six starts. Billingsley has been hampered by nagging injuries this season, may not reach 200 innings, and seems to be wearing down now, having control issues with five walks surrendered in two of his last three starts. Their run support has been quite different as well, with the Giants having scored a very healthy 42 runs in the last six games that Cain has started, while the anemic Dodgers have only plated a total of 18 in Billingsley’s last six. Cain has always loved pitching in his home ballpark but perhaps this season more than ever as the hard-throwing 25-year-old is just 4-7 with a 3.67 ERA in 15 starts on the road, but 7-3 and 2.70 in 14 outings at AT&T Park. There are only two injuries listed for the entire San Francisco roster, and they’re both on the offense (Andres Torres and Mark DeRosa - who’s been out all season anyway) and their pitching staff is 100% healthy. Take the Giants. As always, good luck
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