September 14th 2010 : MLB Analyses.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Indians
Pick: Under 9 Runs -110 odds
A rematch from last week takes place in Cleveland as the Indians host the Angels on Tuesday night. The Angels enter tonight’s game as winners of four straight games as they get their second straight look at Josh Tomlin. He gave up three runs and three hits in six innings pitched against the Angels on September 8th. He’s 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA in three home starts. Tomlin will face an Angels offense that has scored just four runs per game in their last seven games while hitting just .215 as a team over that span. Cleveland’s bullpen is 8-11 with a 3.67 ERA at home blowing only seven saves this season.
The Indians offense hasn’t been much better lately. They have gone Under the total in nine straight games while scoring more than five runs in a game just once. They’ll face an improving Scott Kazmir who has given up seven runs and 12 hits in his last 17.3 innings pitched. He gave up one run and two hits in six innings of work the last time he faced the Indians. Shelley Duncan (2-10), Travis Hafner (1-6), Asdrubal Cabrera (0-6), Jayson Nix (1-5), Matt LaPorta (0-3), Michael Brantley (0-3), and Chris Gimenez (0-1) have poor numbers against the lefty. Cleveland is hitting just .215 in their last seven games. They have gone Under in 38 of their 71 home games this season, and we expect another low-scoring game tonight.
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Pick: Boston Red Sox -125 odds
At 10:10 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Seattle Mariners. Righthander Daisuke Matsuzaka may have turned in his worst start of the season in his last outing at home against the Rays, but he’s probably not too worried about a repeat as he heads into Seattle for a start against the Mariners. Dice-K is 2-1 with a 3.65 ERA in just over 44 career innings vs. Seattle and he had a very good start there back on July 18, and although the Sox lost that game, that was back when their offense all banged up and not producing like it is now. The Sox have been doing very well in his recent road starts, going 4-2 in his last six starts away from Fenway Park, and going back further, they are 24-10 in his last 34 road outings. Lucas French is a young lefthander who has never faced Boston before, but he could be in for a bit of a unpleasant surprise tonight as the Sox are the third-best team hitting southpaws in the American League with a .269 seasonal batting average against them so far. French has had four home starts this year and only one of them (August 29) was against a team with anywhere near the offense that Boston possesses (the Twins). French’s other three outings at Safeco were against the Royals, Indians, and Athletics. Tonight will be his toughest test at home so far this season. Take the Red Sox. As always, good luck…Al McMordie. And, whatever you do, don’t miss my 49-0 ATS Winner in Friday’s College Football. It’s available right now, and could end up being the strongest play I release this season!
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -140 odds
The Yankees are in their worst run of the season. They have dropped four straight games for the first time this year and they are 1-7 over their last eight games as the offense has completely shut down. New York has averaged 2.9 rpg over this eight-game stretch. The Yankees have dropped the first four games of this roadtrip and going back to the last series with Tampa Bay, they are 7-12 in their last 19 road games.
Tampa Bay took a half-game lead with last night’s extra-inning victory and improved to 4426 at home on the season. This includes wins in 10 of its last 12 games at Tropicana Field. The pitching took a big hit during the recent roadtrip but playing at home is the perfect cure as on the season the Rays have a 3.43 ERA and 1.18 WHIP compared to 4.21 and 1.33 on the road respectively.
This is the best time for Matt Garza to face New York as his track record is not very good.
The Rays have lost his last seven starts against the Yankees despite him pitching fairly solid in those games. He has faced New York just once this season and itched good enough to win but the Rays dropped a 5-4 game. He has been outstanding at home this season with a 3.24 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 13 starts with the Rays going 10-3 in those games. Going back further, the Rays are 20-7 in Garza’s last 27 starts as a home favorite.
New York sends Ivan Nova to the hill and he has been a decent addition to the rotation. He has not allowed more than three runs in any of his four starts but he has only one quality outing to show for it. His overall ERA is a solid 2.92 but his WHIP is 1.34 and that is rather high so he is allowing baserunners but has been fortunate to have been able to get out of jams.
Tampa Bay also falls into a great league-wide situation.
Play on American League favorites with a moneyline between -125 and -175 that are averaging between 4.7 and 5.2 rpg going up against a starter whose ERA is 4.20 or better after a combined score of three runs or less. This situation is 36-8 (81.8 percent) since 1997. Also, the Rays are 24-9 this season against American League starters with an ERA of 3.50 or better. 3* Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Under 9 Runs -110 odds
A rematch from last week takes place in Cleveland as the Indians host the Angels on Tuesday night. The Angels enter tonight’s game as winners of four straight games as they get their second straight look at Josh Tomlin. He gave up three runs and three hits in six innings pitched against the Angels on September 8th. He’s 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA in three home starts. Tomlin will face an Angels offense that has scored just four runs per game in their last seven games while hitting just .215 as a team over that span. Cleveland’s bullpen is 8-11 with a 3.67 ERA at home blowing only seven saves this season.
The Indians offense hasn’t been much better lately. They have gone Under the total in nine straight games while scoring more than five runs in a game just once. They’ll face an improving Scott Kazmir who has given up seven runs and 12 hits in his last 17.3 innings pitched. He gave up one run and two hits in six innings of work the last time he faced the Indians. Shelley Duncan (2-10), Travis Hafner (1-6), Asdrubal Cabrera (0-6), Jayson Nix (1-5), Matt LaPorta (0-3), Michael Brantley (0-3), and Chris Gimenez (0-1) have poor numbers against the lefty. Cleveland is hitting just .215 in their last seven games. They have gone Under in 38 of their 71 home games this season, and we expect another low-scoring game tonight.
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Pick: Boston Red Sox -125 odds
At 10:10 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Seattle Mariners. Righthander Daisuke Matsuzaka may have turned in his worst start of the season in his last outing at home against the Rays, but he’s probably not too worried about a repeat as he heads into Seattle for a start against the Mariners. Dice-K is 2-1 with a 3.65 ERA in just over 44 career innings vs. Seattle and he had a very good start there back on July 18, and although the Sox lost that game, that was back when their offense all banged up and not producing like it is now. The Sox have been doing very well in his recent road starts, going 4-2 in his last six starts away from Fenway Park, and going back further, they are 24-10 in his last 34 road outings. Lucas French is a young lefthander who has never faced Boston before, but he could be in for a bit of a unpleasant surprise tonight as the Sox are the third-best team hitting southpaws in the American League with a .269 seasonal batting average against them so far. French has had four home starts this year and only one of them (August 29) was against a team with anywhere near the offense that Boston possesses (the Twins). French’s other three outings at Safeco were against the Royals, Indians, and Athletics. Tonight will be his toughest test at home so far this season. Take the Red Sox. As always, good luck…Al McMordie. And, whatever you do, don’t miss my 49-0 ATS Winner in Friday’s College Football. It’s available right now, and could end up being the strongest play I release this season!
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -140 odds
The Yankees are in their worst run of the season. They have dropped four straight games for the first time this year and they are 1-7 over their last eight games as the offense has completely shut down. New York has averaged 2.9 rpg over this eight-game stretch. The Yankees have dropped the first four games of this roadtrip and going back to the last series with Tampa Bay, they are 7-12 in their last 19 road games.
Tampa Bay took a half-game lead with last night’s extra-inning victory and improved to 4426 at home on the season. This includes wins in 10 of its last 12 games at Tropicana Field. The pitching took a big hit during the recent roadtrip but playing at home is the perfect cure as on the season the Rays have a 3.43 ERA and 1.18 WHIP compared to 4.21 and 1.33 on the road respectively.
This is the best time for Matt Garza to face New York as his track record is not very good.
The Rays have lost his last seven starts against the Yankees despite him pitching fairly solid in those games. He has faced New York just once this season and itched good enough to win but the Rays dropped a 5-4 game. He has been outstanding at home this season with a 3.24 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 13 starts with the Rays going 10-3 in those games. Going back further, the Rays are 20-7 in Garza’s last 27 starts as a home favorite.
New York sends Ivan Nova to the hill and he has been a decent addition to the rotation. He has not allowed more than three runs in any of his four starts but he has only one quality outing to show for it. His overall ERA is a solid 2.92 but his WHIP is 1.34 and that is rather high so he is allowing baserunners but has been fortunate to have been able to get out of jams.
Tampa Bay also falls into a great league-wide situation.
Play on American League favorites with a moneyline between -125 and -175 that are averaging between 4.7 and 5.2 rpg going up against a starter whose ERA is 4.20 or better after a combined score of three runs or less. This situation is 36-8 (81.8 percent) since 1997. Also, the Rays are 24-9 this season against American League starters with an ERA of 3.50 or better. 3* Tampa Bay Rays