What I've learned in my first year of baseball betting

[No coincidences]

Now that I'm in the red after being up almost all season (has anyone made $$$ lately?), I look back and realize the majority of my big losses were during the day. I don't know how many times I've taken a team that's decided to be a total no-show when the sun is up.

Also, no totals ever again in baseball. Love them in football, love them in basketball, but baseball's a total roll of the dice and you'll never convince me otherwise.

Anyone else want to contribute/commiserate?

[No coincidences]

Also, when you get up after a hot streak, don't ride it. Take a break. There are so many games in baseball that you get wrapped up in playing more of them if you catch fire, which is a bad decision. I don't care how good you are as a capper -- the more games you play, the closer to the mean you creep.

[vyomguy]

Yes..someone referred MLB totals to Blackjack...both have same odds of winnings. MLB was profitable for me in the first half of the season. Second half has been bad for me. I guess I know what to do next season...close the shop after 1st half of the season.

[Pauulzcappin]

This is my first year also, I did fine with day baseball usually, Coins... what really sticks out to me is something that rookie gamblers should all learn. don't chase teams on losing streaks, this buried a lot of people on the forum. ride teams on good streaks until they lose, especially when they are fighting for something, but don't do it blindly.

[No coincidences]

This is my first year also, I did fine with day baseball usually, Coins... what really sticks out to me is something that rookie gamblers should all learn. don't chase teams on losing streaks, this buried a lot of people on the forum. ride teams on good streaks until they lose, especially when they are fighting for something, but don't do it blindly.

This can be tricky, though.

How do you explain this NYY series? The Yankees are in the middle of a very important playoff race with approximately 20 games left. They've been a total no-show the past few games.

6 runs in 25 innings? Against Baltimore? Say what you want about the O's being spoilers, playing better in the second half and all that jazz -- there's no excuse for this. None.

[Pauulzcappin]

This can be tricky, though. How do you explain this NYY series? The Yankees are in the middle of a very important playoff race with approximately 20 games left. They've been a total no-show the past few games. 6 runs in 25 innings? Against Baltimore? Say what you want about the O's being spoilers, playing better in the second half and all that jazz -- there's no excuse for this. None.

Since Showalter, Orioles a winning % that's around what Yanks had. I know 35 games can't be compared to 140, but you can see where I'm coming from.

I'll also quote my reply from the other thread to explain this:

I have the answer for this. Teixeira has been very quiet in this series, looks like whenever he cools off, so does everyone else. Cano has been looking like shit lately also, so out bats haven't been producing.

You asked why they are better without A-Rod, they were better because Cano and Tex had insane production. Now A-Rod came back, they haven't been as sharp, and neither has him.

[Handjuice]

This is my first year betting on baseball too.

I agree with you about the daygames. It wouldn't suprise me to hear a statistic that said the under hits on 80% of day games played throught an MLB season, because it seems like the teams don't try as hard lol.

Another thing i've learned is that when your cold..stop betting. Take a couple days off and come back when your fresh. But I guess that can be said for betting in general.

[SolidDala]

1st year as well, a rollercoaster I might add . I think totals are easier then sides, at least for me not sure why. Things that I will stay away from next year team on +4 game losing streak that chalky fav, teams to complete sweeps... There are so many games and this is why people think baseball is best to bet on, but that means one shouldn't place more bets on it then the other sports...

[Pauulzcappin]

Teixeira just striked out, No Coin

[No coincidences]

Since Showalter, Orioles a winning % that's around what Yanks had. I know 35 games can't be compared to 140, but you can see where I'm coming from.

The Yankees still have no excuses for getting swept in this spot.

Again, 6 runs in now 26 innings against anyone -- let alone this staff -- is pitiful with their lineup.

O's are winning and that's all fine and dandy, but if I were a NYY fan, I'd be seriously concerned about their failure to deliver right now.

[No coincidences]

It wouldn't suprise me to hear a statistic that said the under hits on 80% of day games played throught an MLB season, because it seems like the teams don't try as hard lol.

Agree with this. Unders seem to be golden during the day.

[Pauulzcappin]

I already gave you the answer, not really concerned. Yankees will show up at the right time.

[SolidDala]

O's.. they seem to have swept all the big teams this year while going under 0.400 ... One thing that is easy in mlb is to 'chase' losses even the same day after the first game, so a good thing is cap your games, then when your mind is set, don't add any extra just forget and move on

[lyon804]

Baseball bar none is the hardest sport for me. The sad thing is I actually played the game and think I know it. Of all things mentioned here i will simply add this.. Always, always bet a small percentage of your bankrole. Baseball is a very flaky game and there are very few solid angles that are solid like basketball and football. Play 1% only on baseball bets and you can grind your bankroll to a larger one. I suggest doind this by betting off #'s with several locals and offshores. I am simply looking for line value and trying to beating the closing market. Baseball is to unpredicatable to win at long term and the only way to do it is winning against the #. It is easier to beat the # than it is to pick the outcome. The more you beat the # the more you will grind away at your books. It's a zero sum game that is truly the market itself. Beating the market and not the game is the idea. The game will not be beaten long term.

[No coincidences]

When Jim Johnson is shutting you down, you've got problems.

[curious]

This can be tricky, though.

How do you explain this NYY series? The Yankees are in the middle of a very important playoff race with approximately 20 games left. They've been a total no-show the past few games.

6 runs in 25 innings? Against Baltimore? Say what you want about the O's being spoilers, playing better in the second half and all that jazz -- there's no excuse for this. None.

There is an excuse. Baltimore's new manager. The Orioles are a totally different team. Their starter ERA since Showalter took over is 3.6. The OVER/UNDER since Aug 3 is 12-20. The Os are oustcoring their opponents 4.2 to 3.8. Before Showalter came the Os' opponents outscored them 5.5 to 3.6. Showalter has some magic powder he puts in the starting pitchers' drinks.

No way should anyone be laying big odds against the Orioles. The Os are 20-13 since Aug 3 with an average line of +155.

[No coincidences]

Baseball bar none is the hardest sport for me. The sad thing is I actually played the game and think I know it. Of all things mentioned here i will simply add this.. Always, always bet a small percentage of your bankrole. Baseball is a very flaky game and there are very few solid angles that are solid like basketball and football. Play 1% only on baseball bets and you can grind your bankroll to a larger one. I suggest doind this by betting off #'s with several locals and offshores. I am simply looking for line value and trying to beating the closing market. Baseball is to unpredicatable to win at long term and the only way to do it is winning against the #. It is easier to beat the # than it is to pick the outcome. The more you beat the # the more you will grind away at your books. It's a zero sum game that is truly the market itself. Beating the market and not the game is the idea. The game will not be beaten long term.

Outstanding post, lyon. Couldn't agree more.

LB once said that baseball is a square player's haven, and that books hate losing money on it because it's so hard to stay ahead of Joe Public compared to football or basketball. I couldn't disagree more personally. I know MLB like the back of my hand, and have done much worse with it than I did with NBA and NFL. Again, I think it's just because there are so many games, and us degens don't know how to quit if we're lucky enough to get ahead.

[No coincidences]

There is an excuse. Baltimore's new manager. The Orioles are a totally different team. Their starter ERA since Showalter took over is 3.6. The OVER/UNDER since Aug 3 is 12-20. The Os are oustcoring their opponents 4.2 to 3.8. Before Showalter came the Os' opponents outscored them 5.5 to 3.6. Showalter has some magic powder he puts in the starting pitchers' drinks.

No way should anyone be laying big odds against the Orioles. The Os are 20-13 since Aug 3 with an average line of +155.

If you want to make that argument when the O's are beating some mediocre team with nothing to play for this late in the season, fine.

Winning 3 in a row in the Bronx is an embarrassment to the men in pinstripes.

Baltimore is playing well, without a doubt, but they aren't that good of a team.

[No coincidences]

I'm sick of hearing this "Showalter is a savior" crap, too.

Look at his career record. He's nothing more than a journeyman manager. Both the Yanks and D'Bags won world titles the year after he left.

[landers781]

Day baseball .....i think i am hitting 20% of game plays during the day and I dont know why!

[gtboy]

my 1st season too betting. lucky i listen to some of the guys posting here, to saty away from bball in the mth of sept. well i am now seeing why. I up 15% of my starting BR. I will take this anytime. if i put my mony in stock or in the bank i dont think i will make 1/2 of this. I cant say thanks enough to some of the guys here. i dont want to name any bcause there r quite a few good guys posting good plays. I decided to trend lightly since last week of Aug. I am down a little for the mth. after what i see for a few wks now, i will take my profit and move to nfl and ncaaf. the main thing i learn is to take it easy, protect ur profits and reinvest when u win. PATIENCE PATIENCE PATIENCE. dont get caught up with all the noise around. I honestly learn alot for this 1st year. I am treating my betting as a business. dont go tailing a lot of people. find 1 or 2 genuine players and tail them. but do ur hw. there is alot of time i went opposit of guys i tail and won. try to make a plan of how ur going to bet. trust me, having a bad plan is better than having no plans. u can fix a bad plan but u cant fix something that u dont hv.
I read alot about not chasing. but to me since baseball is so unpredictable, in my opinion, the best way to win is to find a good chasing systen, with a streak MM. well gl guys but i am done with bb for the season. happy i made a decent profit for my 1st try and hope i can duplicate in nfl and ncaaf. so far i am doing good. all the best.

[lyon804]

Outstanding post, lyon. Couldn't agree more.

LB once said that baseball is a square player's haven, and that books hate losing money on it because it's so hard to stay ahead of Joe Public compared to football or basketball. I couldn't disagree more personally. I know MLB like the back of my hand, and have done much worse with it than I did with NBA and NFL. Again, I think it's just because there are so many games, and us degens don't know how to quit if we're lucky enough to get ahead.

Yeah, I agree partly with that but let's be honest. The books do quite well at baseball. The way the public bets can win 60%+ for a season and still lose money playing all the chalk and playing the chalk after it has already moved up. Either way the outcome is a losing bet regardless of the game. Nothing wrong with playing some chalk but if value is not there the winner is a loser long term, you feel me? Baseball is more of an investment market mentality than basketball and football. There are people that can beat them sports over a season that have no clue of a market but they are knowledgeable gamblers of a particualr sport... Baseball, no way can you do that. Not to be arrogant but I have forgot more about the game than 99% of people here know and I can't do it that way. It took me a long time to realize that. However, the focus towards a market is profitable. I am just trying to derive value from within now.

[No coincidences]

I think next year, I'll quit MLB in about late-July and start concentrating on foots.

I was warned about August and September, and while I love playing dogs, it's not as easy as it looks to just blindly pick + money late in the season and call it a day. In other words, the game seems to become even more totally unpredictable across the board.

[No coincidences]

Yeah, I agree partly with that but let's be honest. The books do quite well at baseball. The way the public bets can win 60%+ for a season and still lose money playing all the chalk and playing the chalk after it has already moved up. Either way the outcome is a losing bet regardless of the game. Nothing wrong with playing some chalk but if value is not there the winner is a loser long term, you feel me? Baseball is more of an investment market mentality than basketball and football. There are people that can beat them sports over a season that have no clue of a market but they are knowledgeable gamblers of a particualr sport... Baseball, no way can you do that. Not to be arrogant but I have forgot more about the game than 99% of people here know and I can't do it that way. It took me a long time to realize that. However, the focus towards a market is profitable. I am just trying to derive value from within now.

[Pauulzcappin]

NO SWEEP HOMIE

[Darkside Magick]

was killing in bases til interleague came!!!!!!

[Pauulzcappin]

I'm sick of hearing this "Showalter is a savior" crap, too. Look at his career record. He's nothing more than a journeyman manager. Both the Yanks and D'Bags won world titles the year after he left.

Because he sets things straight, take a look at those teams records before he came up

[lunchbawks]

i've learned to play very small with baseball. no point laying over 5units on this ridiculous game with so many variables (relief pitching, closers, rain delays etc etcetc.

[lyon804]

Nocoin, try this for September and give it a shot this month. Take what you know about the game and try to make the moves rather than follow the moves. Bet really small and insignificant at first to test it. Look at the lines the day before and decide what you are liking and then decide and assign value to the game in your own opinion of what it's worth and if it inside that bet it. if outside it bet the other side. I am telling you it works. you will win by just trying to beat the numbers plus it takes the pressure off trying to pick a winner. Just forgot about winning the game and trying to beat the #. I am actually doing very well this month and I am not even trying to pick a winner. Sometimes it just works like that. For tonite I have 2 games that I have already won without seeing the outcome. I have Pirates +151 and Twins - 148. No matter the outcome tonite these are 2 winners long term and I know it. I got value #'s. The only way you can have the attitude is to be willing to lose so therefore you must play smaller. Funny thing is I win just as much or slightly better on a percentage basis now and I am not handicapping so to speak anymore. Just get the winning #

[lyon804]

For instance nocoin.. Atlanta +105 tommorow. That is a winner pal. Forget Wainright is pitching. That is a winning #. Value brother. That is a 50/50 game that you are getting + money on. Atlanta may have stunk lately but they have been dominant at home and nothing warrants St. Louis being road chalk. Dont care if Cy young is pitching are not.

[lyon804]

Atlanta +105 you have to move on because I feel this number will move against you.

[lyon804]

COl -125 is a winner tommorow.

[lyon804]

CWS -120 is a winner

[No coincidences]

Interesting, lyon.

[lyon804]

Interesting, lyon.

Understand.. I am not trying to pick the outcome in any game. They could all lose, but in order to win you have to retrain your way of thinking into picking a winner against the market. Take Atlanta at +105. The implied probability of Atlanta based on those odds are 48.78%. Do you think Atlanta wins this matchup over 1000 times more than that? I do. And if I am correct the line will move against me and I beat the closer. If not I lose, but imo on my estimated edge Atlanta wins more than that here and the pitcher for St. Louis is irreleveant.