Astros/Cubs under 10.5

Bob Loblaw · 09-07-10, 11:36 AM

Wind is a big deal at wrigley all times of the year. I'm just south of chicago and I can hear the wind gusting around outside right now. It's sure to be a lot stronger near the lake.

And 14-10? Where did you get that? That certainly can't be 14-10 to the under with winds blowing out at 15+mph. Maybe 14-10 overall including games with winds blowing in but those hold zero relevance to today. Weather.com is showing 22mph now.

Whether it goes over or under the line makes sense to me with the wind conditions today

fox sixers · 09-07-10, 11:41 AM

on covers.com it says from 15-20 mph.. UNDER is 14-10... 20 and up over is 1-0 this season. 22-22 for under 15 mph. and when I looked on covers.com a hour ago.. it said 15.. it now says 23... still have no idea what the mph will be at 8 pm... and wind was crazy yesterday... and went UNDER.. I guess the only thing to do is keep tabs on the wind condition closer to game time. Any idea you know for 8 pm tonight.. or what the forcasts say?

Bob Loblaw · 09-07-10, 11:53 AM

I don't see it on covers but it sounds like they're including all games with those wind conditions. I don't see how a game with 15mph winds blowing straight in is relevant to a game with 15mph winds blowing straight out. That's why the 14-10 doesn't mean anything to me in relation to today's game.

I believe the 22mph I mentioned is the game forecast from weather.com rather than the current forecast. Could be wrong though.

Bob Loblaw · 09-07-10, 11:54 AM

Fyi, I have no play on this game. All I am trying to say is the line makes sense to me.

fox sixers · 09-07-10, 11:58 AM

o ok. thanks for the input..

if you go to covers.com.. go to matchups. and go to the game.. on the right.. is the information with weather and it says currently.. and keeps changing. lol and IF the mph is in the range of 15-20.. and under is 14-10 when mph is 15-20.. how is that not revelant?

fox sixers · 09-07-10, 12:05 PM

given. lines keep on going against me. I STILL at this time would LEAN under small.. this is great value for these 2 teams.. astros don't really hit.. and you can't tell me cubs are a hitting team.. and given my writeup and all I put out there.. UNDER in my opinion would def be the play with great value at UNDER 11 now.. I really believe that books try to scare you off BECAUSE of wind... went UNDER yesterday... and I see this as a better pitching matchup for UNDER

Bob Loblaw · 09-07-10, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by fox sixers

o ok. thanks for the input..

if you go to covers.com.. go to matchups. and go to the game.. on the right.. is the information with weather and it says currently.. and keeps changing. lol and IF the mph is in the range of 15-20.. and under is 14-10 when mph is 15-20.. how is that not revelant?

Because the game is drastically different depending on which way the wind is blowing. I've seen 6.5 totals at wrigley due to strong winds blowing in and I've seen 14.5 totals at wrigley due to strong winds blowing out. If the game with the 6.5 total finished at 1-0 how is that relevant to the game with the 14.5 total? Despite the mph the conditions are drastically different.

Bob Loblaw · 09-07-10, 12:15 PM

Originally posted by Bob Loblaw

Because the game is drastically different depending on which way the wind is blowing. I've seen 6.5 totals at wrigley due to strong winds blowing in and I've seen 14.5 totals at wrigley due to strong winds blowing out. If the game with the 6.5 total finished at 1-0 how is that relevant to the game with the 14.5 total? Despite the mph the conditions are drastically different.

Or vice versa. All the Zona/Cubs games had strong winds blowing out. Those games finished with run totals of 12, 15, 16, and 18 with all 4 going over the total. How are those 4 games relevant to a game with a 6.5 total because they had 15mph blowing straight in? Two completely different set of conditions.

fox sixers · 09-07-10, 12:17 PM

O that was obvious. I see what you are saying.. do cubs games blow in a lot compared to out?

Bob Loblaw · 09-07-10, 12:19 PM

Here you go. The Over is 12-6 at Wrigley this year with the total set at at least 10. A total of 10+ at Wrigley is an indicator of the wind blowing out.

Bob Loblaw · 09-07-10, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by fox sixers

O that was obvious. I see what you are saying.. do cubs games blow in a lot compared to out?

It varies. Based on your numbers the wind is mostly a non factor the majority of the time.

fox sixers · 09-07-10, 12:26 PM

But however.. you got to take in account Arizona.. and there hitting and pitching... haha.. team is an OVER team.. with wind conditions.... there were only 3 games in that april/may series I think?

fox sixers · 09-07-10, 12:30 PM

Please do not tell me I think wind is a non factor.. I am not stupid.. I know it is.. but at the same time.. a lot of backing for UNDER. haven't exactly decided what I am going to do yet. We shall see.. I wasn't thinking at the time as I was writing the writeup when I saw 14-10 UNDER you have to account wind for games that BLOW IN.. but I don't know how many games that is... so your right. that stat is irrevelant.. what IS revelant.. is wind was blowing out like crazy between these 2 teams yesterday and it went UNDER.. and I believe there is much more backing for an UNDER today than yesterday... we shall see

Bob Loblaw · 09-07-10, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by fox sixers

But however.. you got to take in account Arizona.. and there hitting and pitching... haha.. team is an OVER team.. with wind conditions.... there were only 3 games in that april/may series I think?

Nope, 4 games. Finals of 13-5, 11-5, 7-5, and 10-5.

Sure you can take zona's hitting/pitching into account compared to houston's. But with each team scoring at least 5 runs in all 4 games and 18 homeruns hit with a minumum of 4 a game then you better believe the wind had a factor.

Believe me, I'm not trying to sell you on the over here. I have no play on this game.

Bob Loblaw · 09-07-10, 12:37 PM

Originally posted by fox sixers

Please do not tell me I think wind is a non factor.. I am not stupid.. I know it is.. but at the same time.. a lot of backing for UNDER. haven't exactly decided what I am going to do yet. We shall see.. I wasn't thinking at the time as I was writing the writeup when I saw 14-10 UNDER you have to account wind for games that BLOW IN.. but I don't know how many games that is... so your right. that stat is irrevelant.. what IS revelant.. is wind was blowing out like crazy between these 2 teams yesterday and it went UNDER.. and I believe there is much more backing for an UNDER today than yesterday... we shall see

You said the line makes little sense to you. All I did was state why it does make sense.

And you said wind isn't a big deal in chicago this time of the year which is just wrong.

Again, I'm not trying to tell you to bet the over. I'm just stating why the line makes sense.

fox sixers · 09-07-10, 12:39 PM

Fair enough...