MLB Odds: Red Sox Host Manny and White Sox
Manny Ramirez brings the White Sox to Boston tonight with better playoff hopes than the host Red Sox. Clay Buchholz and John Danks get the call in the series opener at Fenway Park.
Stick a fork in ‘em. They’re done.
When we checked in on the Boston Red Sox last week, they were staring into the abyss. They very much needed a sweep against the Tampa Bay Rays; instead, the Red Sox dropped two out of three, making it all but certain they’ll miss the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
All but certain. The cavalry has arrived for one last attempt at turning this thing around. On Thursday, Daisuke Matsuzaka (4.64 xFIP) made his return from the 15-day DL and picked up the win in a 6-4 final over the Baltimore Orioles (+126). Boston also activated outfielder Eric Patterson (sprained neck) and catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (infected leg) on Wednesday, but the reinforcements appear to be too little, too late. The Red Sox (76-58, 2.14 units) remain 6.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the American League Wild Card.
They’ve also got an awkward date coming up with a former friend. Manny Ramirez is now a member of the Chicago White Sox (73-60, 9.27 units), and he’ll be looking to put one over the Green Monster as the Sox try to close the gap between themselves and the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central. Chicago is coming off a three-game sweep of the Cleveland Indians at The Jake; Ramirez (.914 OPS) went 1-for-3 on Wednesday in his debut as the new White Sox designated hitter.
Manny’s toughest test in this series should be on Friday – provided Hurricane Earl doesn’t dump rain all over Beantown.
John Danks vs. Clay Buchholz
Friday, Sept. 3 - 7:10 p.m. ET
We told you last week about Buchholz (4.19 xFIP) and his unusually low BABIP, which sank even further to .260 after last Saturday’s gem against Tampa Bay: one earned run on four hits over 7.1 innings. But the Red Sox (+138) lost the game 3-2 in the 10th when Scott Atchison gave up the sayonara home run to Dan Johnson. They fell to 17-6 (+10.51 units) with Buchholz on the mound.
Buchholz still has that shiny 2.21 ERA, so the betting odds have the White Sox as +130 road dogs with a total of eight runs. But Danks (4.08 xFIP) has actually been the better pitcher. Chicago has simply failed to take advantage, going 13-13 in his 26 starts for a deficit of 3.21 units. Perhaps that’ll change with Manny’s bat in the lineup. He’s 1-for-2 lifetime off Buchholz with a walk.
Gavin Floyd vs. John Lackey
Saturday, Sept. 4 - 7:10 p.m. ET
Lackey (4.48 xFIP) had another bad game last Sunday, giving up all five runs in a 5-3 loss to Tampa as a +131 road dog. The Red Sox are 14-13 in his 27 starts and 2.35 units in the red. Now comes the really hard part. Even though Lackey starred for the Los Angeles/Anaheim Angels, Ramirez is 12-of-28 lifetime off the big righty with nine walks and five home runs, for a gigantic 1.650 OPS.
Floyd (3.80 xFIP) is getting burned even worse than Danks. Chicago is just 12-15 in his starts for a loss of 4.30 units; he gets an even four runs of support per game, and the UNDER is 15-10-2. Danks gets 4.46 runs per game, and Sunday’s beloved starter gets 4.96 runs. Hardly seems fair.
Mark Buehrle vs. Josh Beckett
Sunday, Sept. 5 - 1:35 p.m. ET
But that’s life. Buehrle (4.81 xFIP) gets all the accolades, and the profit, too: 4.55 units on a team record of 16-11. But to his credit, Buehrle usually makes it through seven innings, and he’s thrown five quality starts in his last six games. He also has a .777 career OPS against current Red Sox batters, down from their current .793 team OPS.
Beckett (3.97 xFIP) has never faced Ramirez. This might not be the best time to change that, either, but Beckett has thrown a pair of quality starts since getting his lunch handed to him three times in a row last month. The Red Sox are 9-7 behind Beckett for a slim profit of 0.61 units. In addition to dealing with a lower back strain and missing two months of action, Beckett is getting pounded by an abnormally high .341 BABIP, which explains his inflated 6.21 ERA. Tough luck, pardner.
Manny Ramirez brings the White Sox to Boston tonight with better playoff hopes than the host Red Sox. Clay Buchholz and John Danks get the call in the series opener at Fenway Park.
Stick a fork in ‘em. They’re done.
When we checked in on the Boston Red Sox last week, they were staring into the abyss. They very much needed a sweep against the Tampa Bay Rays; instead, the Red Sox dropped two out of three, making it all but certain they’ll miss the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
All but certain. The cavalry has arrived for one last attempt at turning this thing around. On Thursday, Daisuke Matsuzaka (4.64 xFIP) made his return from the 15-day DL and picked up the win in a 6-4 final over the Baltimore Orioles (+126). Boston also activated outfielder Eric Patterson (sprained neck) and catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (infected leg) on Wednesday, but the reinforcements appear to be too little, too late. The Red Sox (76-58, 2.14 units) remain 6.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the American League Wild Card.
They’ve also got an awkward date coming up with a former friend. Manny Ramirez is now a member of the Chicago White Sox (73-60, 9.27 units), and he’ll be looking to put one over the Green Monster as the Sox try to close the gap between themselves and the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central. Chicago is coming off a three-game sweep of the Cleveland Indians at The Jake; Ramirez (.914 OPS) went 1-for-3 on Wednesday in his debut as the new White Sox designated hitter.
Manny’s toughest test in this series should be on Friday – provided Hurricane Earl doesn’t dump rain all over Beantown.
John Danks vs. Clay Buchholz
Friday, Sept. 3 - 7:10 p.m. ET
We told you last week about Buchholz (4.19 xFIP) and his unusually low BABIP, which sank even further to .260 after last Saturday’s gem against Tampa Bay: one earned run on four hits over 7.1 innings. But the Red Sox (+138) lost the game 3-2 in the 10th when Scott Atchison gave up the sayonara home run to Dan Johnson. They fell to 17-6 (+10.51 units) with Buchholz on the mound.
Buchholz still has that shiny 2.21 ERA, so the betting odds have the White Sox as +130 road dogs with a total of eight runs. But Danks (4.08 xFIP) has actually been the better pitcher. Chicago has simply failed to take advantage, going 13-13 in his 26 starts for a deficit of 3.21 units. Perhaps that’ll change with Manny’s bat in the lineup. He’s 1-for-2 lifetime off Buchholz with a walk.
Gavin Floyd vs. John Lackey
Saturday, Sept. 4 - 7:10 p.m. ET
Lackey (4.48 xFIP) had another bad game last Sunday, giving up all five runs in a 5-3 loss to Tampa as a +131 road dog. The Red Sox are 14-13 in his 27 starts and 2.35 units in the red. Now comes the really hard part. Even though Lackey starred for the Los Angeles/Anaheim Angels, Ramirez is 12-of-28 lifetime off the big righty with nine walks and five home runs, for a gigantic 1.650 OPS.
Floyd (3.80 xFIP) is getting burned even worse than Danks. Chicago is just 12-15 in his starts for a loss of 4.30 units; he gets an even four runs of support per game, and the UNDER is 15-10-2. Danks gets 4.46 runs per game, and Sunday’s beloved starter gets 4.96 runs. Hardly seems fair.
Mark Buehrle vs. Josh Beckett
Sunday, Sept. 5 - 1:35 p.m. ET
But that’s life. Buehrle (4.81 xFIP) gets all the accolades, and the profit, too: 4.55 units on a team record of 16-11. But to his credit, Buehrle usually makes it through seven innings, and he’s thrown five quality starts in his last six games. He also has a .777 career OPS against current Red Sox batters, down from their current .793 team OPS.
Beckett (3.97 xFIP) has never faced Ramirez. This might not be the best time to change that, either, but Beckett has thrown a pair of quality starts since getting his lunch handed to him three times in a row last month. The Red Sox are 9-7 behind Beckett for a slim profit of 0.61 units. In addition to dealing with a lower back strain and missing two months of action, Beckett is getting pounded by an abnormally high .341 BABIP, which explains his inflated 6.21 ERA. Tough luck, pardner.