Lets Discuss some Baseball Strategy???

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  • N.O.S.
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 03-18-10
    • 843

    #36
    Successful punter must possess qualities of a professional sniper:

    Discipline and cunning are the important qualities. Snipers do not (usually) roam around looking for people to shoot. They do not shoot non-combatants, i.e. women and children, other unarmed persons, livestock, windshields, and houses, etc. The sniper is either alone, or with one to three other people, depending on the mission requirements. Taking shots at targets not worth shooting only increases the risks of being discovered, captured or killed. Discipline and patience are essential qualities to have when faced with a shoot or not to shoot decision.

    Why is all of this important? A sniper may stalk a target for days to get a shot. He may never get it. Could you abandon the mission without shooting anything? The window of opportunity for a shot may last only 3 seconds. If you are daydreaming, fooling around, eating, or anything else you will not be successful.

    You should be studying the kill zone and waiting for your shot.

    What does the word "cunning" mean to you? To a sniper it is everything, and it affects everything he does. Cunning alone can make a sniper successful. A sniper must decide where to position himself, how to get there, how to leave, what to take with him, how to camouflage the hide, where to place alternate hides, and what to do if something bad happens. A sniper must be able think an entire shoot through from beginning to end and set it up in a manner which will produce results.

    "Judgement" may be an essential quality on the civilian side. Someone armed does not always mean "enemy" while in the military, anyone armed on the other side is pretty much considered "enemy" and fair game. In an urban setting, field craft may be a much lesser needed quality for civilian self-defense scenario.

    Two qualities only.. Patience and the ability to shoot accurately from extremely long distances. Everything else just falls into place as needed, just like every other combat soldier or militia.


    Comment
    • snapperman2
      SBR MVP
      • 08-19-10
      • 2078

      #37
      In 3 games/day, you risk more since you're playing 3 games. So bet 3 units on 1 game/day and profits will be same.

      1 game a day 300$ = +15 Units
      3 game a day 100$ = +15 Units

      As you can see, there isn't any difference.
      Playing 3 games a day for $100 each is less risky than playing 1 game a day for $300. This is because it is quite likely that you will lose the $300 if you bet on one game, and quite unlikely that you will lose all three games and lose $300 when you are betting $100 on each of 3 games. That is a statistical fact, assuming that your advantage on each of the 3 games is the same as your advantage on the one game.

      I understand the other point made that it is hard to thoroughly handicap more than 1 game/day. It may also be hard to find more than one good opportunity for a bet per day. So I'm not necessarily disagreeing with the 1 play per day idea. Just remember not to put too much of your bankroll on one game or variance will wipe you out in the short term even if you have an advantage long-term. And if you lose your bankroll early, you won't be able to bet any more.
      Comment
      • soxwin
        SBR MVP
        • 01-05-10
        • 1885

        #38
        Originally posted by jorge1
        . You do limit your winnings by playing less games but I also believe since the books have LIMITELESS pockets, the name of our game isnt WINNING money...I think it is NOT LOSING money...sounds like monkey jabber..., but As long as your strategy is to LIMIT the chances of loss, then you are okay.... or the way I LOOK AT IT is, Limit your chances of losing...limit your RISKS, instead of INCREASING your potential... Every game is a potential loss, so less games, more winning.?
        If your mindset is all about losing, then guess what, you are going to lose.

        let's break down what you said:
        the name of our game isnt WINNING money...I think it is NOT LOSING money...It is about winning money. If you want to "not lose" then don't play. That is how you don't lose.

        limit your RISKS, instead of INCREASING your potential - Where there is no risk, there is no reward. Scared money never wins is another saying that applies here.

        As long as your strategy is to LIMIT the chances of loss, then you are okay. - It has been said by many a wise man "the best defense is a good offense". Therefore you can limit your losses by aggressively winning games.

        Every game is a potential loss, so less games, more winning - That is as big of a defeatist attitude as I have ever seen. There is a winner in 90% of the opportunities, you just have to find them. Obviously you aren't going to play 90% of the opportunites, but the winners are always there.

        Sports investing, just like any kind of investing is all about maximizing profits. So you play as many games as there are an advantage in if you want to maximize profits. Sometimes it is 1 play, sometimes it is 6 plays, somedays it is no plays, and sometimes(not likely but it can happen) on a college football Saturday there could be 15 games between totals, sides, quarter lines, 1/2 time lines etc

        Having said that you only play as many games that you have time to successfully cap. Jorge in your case you said you have limited time. When that happens I have found it best to pick one conference in a sport and focus on being an expert in that conference..then only do that conference or division. You limit the games you cap and then you can only play from your strengths which is your knowledge of that division.

        EX: AL east in MLB, Atlantic division in the NBA, Big east in NCAAF and NCAABB...etc

        Being good at one thing is always better than being mediocre at everything. If you can be good at everything, all the power to you

        good luck,
        soxwin
        Comment
        • jorge1
          SBR MVP
          • 02-06-10
          • 3520

          #39
          All very valid points gentlemen. I'll respond further tomorrow once I get on a computer but thank u all for participating
          Comment
          • N.O.S.
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 03-18-10
            • 843

            #40
            Thank you Jorge.
            Comment
            • jorge1
              SBR MVP
              • 02-06-10
              • 3520

              #41
              NOS, GREAT post...love the Snipper talk...Honestly, its exactly the way i wanna wager...

              SOXWIN, first let me say, respectfully, Thank you very much for the response and the interest in what we are discussing...I take no offense in what you have to say, but i feel i should explain myself a little better. I dont feel that by responding ill get you to think just like me, but I hope to clarify my logic...

              You are right, there is a chance in EVERY SINGLE GAME to make a winning play. The investing mindset is to MAXIMIZE or INCREASE winning potential...And i understand that..makes TOTAL sense, however, i like to think of the glass half empty better. it keeps me winning, a game or two at a time, LIMITING my risk by TAKING MORE TIME on one or two plays...

              The part of the discussion that i would like to point out to ya, because i ADMIT, you have a VERY VALID point saying that the idea is to MAXIMIZE profit by paying as many games as there is an edge, but lets discuss this:

              How long does it take you to figure out a game and have a solid edge based on your analysis?

              It takes me 2-3 hours per game to really feel good about it. You might be ten times better than i am cappin and might figure out a winning play in 20 -30 minutes, or less, perhaps.

              At this rate, if i push too many games a day, like 4 or 5, then it will take me 8-10 hours to get a good analysis on each game...even with a good analysis i wont be getting winners out of a game. A good analysis doesnt mean a higher edge, just means you get a good idea on what will happen, but sometimes there are variables that are too large to calculate, or figure out so you make it a NO PLAY.

              Another point is, WE ARE HUMAN...so we have one or two plays we feel REALY REALLY good about every day. The rest of the plays are edge plays, value plays, system plays, situational plays, etc.

              But my main point is the following, The more games i play a day, the higher my percentage error. Bookies make lines to confuse us, they place lines also with numerous stats already figured in that we couldnt possibly figure all in one day...So we are on a time clock. We have from tonight when the plays come out, until tomorrow at 7 pm game time to cap.

              What is most efficient? Cap 10 games and try to go for 6-4 or better?

              or

              Browse thorugh games, choose two, cap em, pick the best one..research, and try to go for 1-0?

              I know math, really do, and i guess im a dummy for not knowing accounting math, or business math, or the math calcs that perhaps traders and investors use, but i know math from another perspective. i studied mechanical engineering, and in my career we study percentage error ALOT...We dont figure percentage error to level out when you play LARGE number of plays, we actually can take a different point of view..you could figure a human is a system (or a machine). The more functions you add to the tasks, the higher the total system error can be in an operation.

              Example:

              If i pick one a day, i am currently hitting close to 90%. The days i have picked between 2-3, i pick in the 70% range. If i pick 4-5, i start picking between 40-50%. If i pick larger amounts of picks i end up picking less than 50% range.

              perhaps i am not a "good" cappin machine, lol, but if i KNOW that my error increases with the more work i do, then i keep the work down and try to keep my OVERALL PERCENTAGE high by specializing or focusing on fewer plays.

              This phenomena, the percentage of wins based on number of plays over a given amount of time is something that i have NEVER heard anyone discuss on here. PPL mention it is better to pick your spots, but no one (that i have seen) shows mathematical proof or models for it. So it seems like crap. I am going to do the following: Sometime this weekend or next week ill look back at my last two seasons in bases and will rate my winning percentages based on the number of games i played a day. hopefully this way i can speak with some numbers and have some proof..


              One last thing, i respect your point of view, but, if i were to limit you to one play a day, your best play, you seriously would tell me your ABSOLUTE best play wouldnt hit more often than your "edge" plays?

              One last little thing:

              daily percentage:

              if i play one play a day, lets say i have 50% chance of winning the one play so

              100*.50 = 50% chance of winning 100

              if i play 4 plays at 50% each (just a coin flip)

              100*.50*.50*.50*.50= 6.25% of winning 100 bucks

              Granted, my play im usually feeling way more than 50% on, and you might feel much better as well per play, but the key of the discussion is

              MAXIMIZING PROFIT by PLAYING LESS by LIMITING percentage ERROR.
              Comment
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