Anyone know the pct of times a MLB team lands on 4 runs scored? 5 runs?

[Iceman]

Thanks!!

[skilz4milz]

Not sure if they keep this stat or not but you can try teamrankings.com. If they don't have that exact stat you may be able to piece some info together from there to figure it out. Otherwise I don't know. Hope this helps.

[LVBOUND]

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/query?sort=ON_PL&text=season%3D2010+and+t:runs%3D4&submit=query

4 runs in the 2010 season SU: 272-237

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/query?sort=ON_PL&text=season%3D2010+and+t:runs%3D5&submit=query

5 runs in the 2010 season SU: 270-166

interesting stat if you look at it almost identical as far as teams that score 4 or 5 but the win pct in a huge difference just by 1 run.

JUST FYI this is a TEAM HITS 4 or 5 NOT a game total.

[Rich Boy]

0 runs is 6.94%
1 runs is 11.35%
2 runs is 13.18%
3 runs is 13.58
4 runs is 12.74%
5 runs is 10.56%
6 runs is 9.71%
7 runs is 6.64%
8 runs is 4.61%

This is from a sample of 2018 games (all this season)

[LVBOUND]

Nice ass rich boy!

ALSO just curious where you got those stats? I would like to see it.

[Rich Boy]

Hard work, thats how I got the stats

[Pokerjoe]

Ice, I'm sure you know that the answer, for useful purposes, needs to be adjusted for the game's total and the team's chance of winning. Are you looking into team totals? If so, IrishTim recently ran a thread about this in HTT.

Level 1 = database results
Level 2 = Davenport's 3-Poisson formula
Level 3 = Weibull calcs

The chance of a team scoring exactly 4 runs in a game totaled at 8 is not the same as one in which the total is 10.
The chance of a team scoring exactly 4 runs in a game totaled at 8 as a -150 fave is not the same is when it is a +150 dog.
I know you know this, but the point is, the usefulness of DB results breakdown as the subsets get smaller, as they do here; the usefulness of math, correspondingly, increases.

[Pokerjoe]

Actually, somewhere on that list of Levels, should be "deduction from drop-down boxes." Probably tied for second. And while the difference between level 2 and 3 is probably close to trivial (Data would argue otherwise), the difference between level 1 and level 2 is significant.