I could tell you right now what the SQUARE play for Monday will be.....SO BEWARE!

[danrman]

kuroda 3 starts vs philly in l.a. are all wins team record wise... his 2 starts in philly are both losses team record wise..
halladay has never faced lad as a philly.. his team record as a blue jay at lad is 2-0.. he has faced kuroda as a blue jay and won the game..

[mitote]

FWIW:

These are my only 2 plays for Monday: (Sunday +4.60 units)

Dodgers +126 (2.5 units)
Brewers +135 (2.5 units)

There ya go! 2 solid plays!

[TGHMak]

Since the line is so low, this game doesn't appear to present that much value.

[danrman]

GL MITO but mil looks like a tough one even though you got some bats..

[MadCapper]

It's hard to lay off that -135 with him on the mound...

Thats exactly the point of my thread!

[MadCapper]

Phils gonna win this shit, easy. They just got their confidence back.

So they will win easily because they got their confidence back?

[MadCapper]

There ya go! 2 solid plays!

[teaserpleaser]

I always fade the dodgers vs Aces they leave so many runners stranded @ 135 i take my chances with Doc

[teaserpleaser]

it's not in me to put money against doc. you can count on doc, you can't count on dodgers hitting.

Word i hate baseball not my thing but i will be fading my hometown dodgers tonight L7 me up but the dodgers will probably get 9 hits and 2 runs or something like that. You know they are going to leave risp vs Leroy.

[MadCapper]

Good thoughts in this thread.

I am still playing the line, and the home team, with a solid pitcher....against a slumping offense that just flew cross country.

[HoulihansTX]

Good thoughts in this thread. I am still playing the line, and the home team, with a solid pitcher....against a slumping offense that just flew cross country.

Phillies have been in California for the past 4 days, and just got done defeating the best team in the NL West.

I'm taking Halladay late, and probably on the RL too. Dodgers cant hit. You dont hit, you dont score.

[sweethook]

all and all lad been playing better ,so i like then here , gl.

[MadCapper]

Phillies have been in California for the past 4 days, and just got done defeating the best team in the NL West.

I'm taking Halladay late, and probably on the RL too. Dodgers cant hit. You dont hit, you dont score.

Haha...was being a little sarcastic with the cross country thing (from SD to LA). Did they even fly?

It seems to me Philly can't hit much either now.

[Rookie-Capper]

call me a square-phils

[HoulihansTX]

Check that Philly First-Five for me.

Gl to all on Dodgers ML.

[FR3SH like UgHH]

like the dodgers play...

can u elaborate on why u like the brew crew tho? there like 1-7 against cincy this year..

[slimpickins]

Personally I think after a bad week people here are starting to second guess what they would normally do and this is exactly what the books want.
The books don't know who is going to win; what they do know is that the betting public will lose when they start chasing, betting large when they are on a losing streak and getting so messed in the brain that they start second guessing everything and trying to out-think Vegas.
I took risks last week which is what the books wanted, but I did so becuase I was up a good amount on the year and my risks paid off so now I am up even more.

Not a bad play on the Dodgers and I am not on either side but I think you can find better values than betting against Halladay; or if no better values are present take the day off.
The one play I am looking at is TEX but may just take the night off, these smaller card days can be tougher.
TEX will be a public fave but if you choose the right plays public favs can win and are easier to spot the correct "sharp" play.
Since they are on the road and only a right at or below .500 team I may not follow them today.
Reason I would follow is becuase of the much better pitching matchup and Wilson is Texas's best starter right now.

Keep trying to out-think Vegas and see how it works out for you.
In baseball things like line movement and similar are over-rated.
Baseball is more unpredictable the linesmakers struggle sometimes too; there are 162 games for each team ; much harder to make lines for that then NFL.

[MadCapper]

like the dodgers play...

can u elaborate on why u like the brew crew tho? there like 1-7 against cincy this year..

I am not looking at past trends against teams earlier this year. Situations have changed. Rosters have changed. I actually think the pitching matchup favors Milwaukee tonight. Fielder is heating up. Braun is hot now as well. Do you trust Bailey as a favorite? I sure as heck dont.

[MadCapper]

Personally I think after a bad week people here are starting to second guess what they would normally do and this is exactly what the books want.
The books don't know who is going to win; what they do know is that the betting public will lose when they start chasing, betting large when they are on a losing streak and getting so messed in the brain that they start second guessing everything and trying to out-think Vegas.
I took risks last week which is what the books wanted, but I did so becuase I was up a good amount on the year and my risks paid off so now I am up even more.

Not a bad play on the Dodgers and I am not on either side but I think you can find better values than betting against Halladay; or if no better values are present take the day off.
The one play I am looking at is TEX but may just take the night off, these smaller card days can be tougher.
TEX will be a public fave but if you choose the right plays public favs can win and are easier to spot the correct "sharp" play.
Since they are on the road and only a right at or below .500 team I may not follow them today.
Reason I would follow is becuase of the much better pitching matchup and Wilson is Texas's best starter right now.

Keep trying to out-think Vegas and see how it works out for you.
In baseball things like line movement and similar are over-rated.
Baseball is more unpredictable the linesmakers struggle sometimes too; there are 162 games for each team ; much harder to make lines for that then NFL.

All valid points. But forgetting the names of the pitchers...we must realize that the dodgers arent a bad team. Maybe getting rod of Manny will actually help them. Plus they are the home team. Now lets look at the line. Halladay is a stud. The Phillies seemed to have righted the ship. The Dodgers seemed to have given up on the year (trading Manny). Why is Halladay and the streaking defending NL Champs only a -135 against a team that seems to have thrown in the white towel?

Things that make me go "hmmmm", and make a square go "LOCK"....

[kobefanatic]

leaning the dodgers

[GoCougs!]

For me, the Dodgers/Phils is a no play. Halladay has killed me when I go his direction. I would lean toward LA, but then I'd lose going against Phily. I'll just keep $ in the bank today.

[MadCapper]

For me, the Dodgers/Phils is a no play. Halladay has killed me when I go his direction. I would lean toward LA, but then I'd lose going against Phily. I'll just keep $ in the bank today.

I respect that. Any easier plays?

[slimpickins]

Still think lines for Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Cubs, Cardinals and Dodgers are over-valued as vegas knows these are the publics favorite teams nationally and the most likeihood of bets coming in on their side.

Tough to analize and read into odds-makers thinking when these teams play against each other like tonight.
I do agree with you though that if the odds-makers wanted a 50/50 split of the best which they claim is the goal then this game would be -150 or so with halladay pitching so that is a little suspicious. But in baseball 15 points opening line is not suspicious enough for me to try and guess what the books are thinking, with my money I would rather spot the matchup that gives me the best chance of winning and play that.
By game time I suspect this line will be in the -140's if not approaching -150 right in line where it should be ; so if betting the Dodgers I would wait until end of day.

No disrespect to you intended just trying to give a different perspective.

[Holdin Aces]

Fade phillies.. these good pitchers suck... i have noticed the top pitchers laying eggs multiple times, wainwreight, jizzbag jimenze, lincecum, lackey. and many others.. I think better on dogs is thee only way to go..

Lackey doesn't belong in this conversation.

[million2one]

Good Luck with the dodgers.
Other than two home runs yesterday, Phillies are still not playing small ball and averaging about 3 runs a game over the last two weeks.
Phillies are not yet hitting, it they start to than look out, with their pitching they should be right back in the world series.

[Holdin Aces]

Phillies have been in California for the past 4 days, and just got done defeating the best team in the NL West.

I'm taking Halladay late, and probably on the RL too. Dodgers cant hit. You dont hit, you dont score.

[cecil127]

I respect that. Any easier plays?

rangers rl
padres rl
hook em up via the parlay and get ~(+300)

get a lil crazy a throw the phils rl in there and your looking at (+767)
but thats just me......

[MadCapper]

rangers rl
padres rl
hook em up via the parlay and get ~(+300)

get a lil crazy a throw the phils rl in there and your looking at (+767)
but thats just me......

Once you say RL....its never easy.

Good luck.

[rgbraves]

Atlanta seems pretty damn square as well, but I shall be on it.

atlanta should be riding high after that comeback yesterday

[bradleysnyder]

i would say the under is a good bet in this one

[MadCapper]

i would say the under is a good bet in this one

Have to agree.

[Dukebluejms]

I am on the Dodgers, but I can see why people are so against it. Personally, I will be kicking myself if the Phils do win and I could have had Halladay at -135. Hopefully this won't happen, but I can see why it'll be hard to get folks off Doc in this spot.

[Truth Be Told]

phillies are a

[cecil127]

Once you say RL....its never easy. Good luck.

ok OP, take the padres ml (-126)
better value and a better chance of cashing than the phils....
or: you could parlay that selection with the rangers ml for odds of (+182)
and even nuttier, throw the phils ml in a 3 teamer for odds of (+386)
(using bodog odds so im sure your book will offer a nicer payout)

hmm, i think i just talked myself into 2 plays tonight...ok, 3 if you count the exacta box(1/6) in the 9th @ yonkers
these'll be posted in my thread-ill go on the record with 'em.

[og4667]

dodgers or nothing. you are right mr mad capper, you can tell people what to do but you can't place the bet for them. Letdown spot for phillies off a sweep of the best team in the NL, simple as that.