MLB Odds: Giants Host Reds to Open Week
Matt Cain gets the start and the favorite tag on the MLB odds board Monday when the San Francisco Giants open a crucial National League series against Joey Votto and the Reds.
Well, if grunge can make a comeback, so can the Cincinnati Reds. They haven’t been relevant since 1995, either.
The Reds haven’t even had a winning season since 2000, but lo and behold, here they are on top of the NL Central at 72-52 and 18.64 units in the black. Cincinnati is second in the senior circuit with a .769 team OPS, thanks to the continued exploits of first baseman Joey Votto (1.006 OPS) and the career revival of third baseman Scott Rolen (.896 OPS).
But it’s the relatively recent improvement of the pitching rotation that is keeping the Reds on top:
Reds pitching (pre-All Star): 4.19 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
Reds pitching (post-All Star): 3.34 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
We’ll see three of Cincinnati’s reinforcements in action this week against the San Francisco Giants, who are enjoying a breakthrough campaign of their own at 69-56 (7.49 units). That’s only good enough for second place in the NL West behind the even more surprising 73-50 San Diego Padres, but San Fran is just two games back in the Wild Card standings.
The Giants are only eighth in the NL with a .731 team OPS, but they make up for it with quality pitching:
ERA: 3.54 (No. 4 overall)
K/9: 8.08 (No. 1)
WHIP: 1.33 (No. 13)
xFIP: 4.25 (No. 14)
The Giants are also second in the majors with a 43.7 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), so even though defense is difficult to quantify, we can see how they get away with those middling WHIP and xFIP numbers. Can they keep the mighty Reds from parading around the bases this week? The betting odds suggest they can: San Francisco is a -155 chalk on Monday with a total of 7½ runs.
Edinson Volquez vs. Matt Cain
Monday, Aug. 23 - 10:15 p.m. ET
Volquez (4.61 xFIP) has made seven starts since completing his return from Tommy John surgery. That’s a pretty small sample size – as far as pure stuff goes, Volquez is showing a fastball that gets up around 94 mph and a change-up in the low 80s. But he’s also relying more heavily on his curveball, and so far, Volquez has had some difficulty finding the plate compared to his breakout 2008 campaign.
Cain (4.40 xFIP) is his usual reliable workhorse self, but the Giants are once again giving him poor run support at 3.60 per game. The 'under' is 14-9 in Cain’s 25 starts; San Fran is 12-13 for a deficit of 3.98 units.
Travis Wood vs. Jonathan Sanchez
Tuesday, Aug. 24 - 10:15 p.m. ET
This can’t possibly keep up forever, can it? The Reds called up Wood (4.22 xFIP) on June 30, and the rookie nearly pitched a perfect game against the Philadelphia Phillies in just his third start. Wood’s a high-strikeout lefty (7.22 per nine innings thus far), but he’s also benefiting from a ridiculously low .211 BABIP. For now, the Reds are 7-2 in his nine starts for a quick 5.26 units.
Sanchez (4.28 xFIP) is a southpaw with an even higher K rate (9.35 per nine innings), and he threw a no-hitter last July against the San Diego Padres. The Giants are 15-10 in his 25 starts for 5.17 units of profit, with the 'over' at 15-9-1.
Homer Bailey vs. Madison Bumgarner
Wednesday, Aug. 25 - 3:45 p.m. ET
Bailey (4.35 xFIP) made the Reds roster out of spring training, but missed nearly three months with a shoulder inflammation. The blue-chip prospect has made two starts since coming off the DL, allowing just one run in 13 innings for a pair of wins to extend the 'under' to 6-2-3 in his 11 starts.
Bumgarner (4.27 xFIP) has also made 11 starts for the Giants since his call-up from AAA-Fresno and shares the same 7-4 team record as Bailey. But since Bumgarner isn’t quite as highly touted as Bailey, Giants supporters are 3.34 units in the black behind the 21-year-old southpaw, compared to 2.78 units for Bailey and the Reds. The 'under' is 8-3 when Bumgarner takes the mound.
Matt Cain gets the start and the favorite tag on the MLB odds board Monday when the San Francisco Giants open a crucial National League series against Joey Votto and the Reds.
Well, if grunge can make a comeback, so can the Cincinnati Reds. They haven’t been relevant since 1995, either.
The Reds haven’t even had a winning season since 2000, but lo and behold, here they are on top of the NL Central at 72-52 and 18.64 units in the black. Cincinnati is second in the senior circuit with a .769 team OPS, thanks to the continued exploits of first baseman Joey Votto (1.006 OPS) and the career revival of third baseman Scott Rolen (.896 OPS).
But it’s the relatively recent improvement of the pitching rotation that is keeping the Reds on top:
Reds pitching (pre-All Star): 4.19 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
Reds pitching (post-All Star): 3.34 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
We’ll see three of Cincinnati’s reinforcements in action this week against the San Francisco Giants, who are enjoying a breakthrough campaign of their own at 69-56 (7.49 units). That’s only good enough for second place in the NL West behind the even more surprising 73-50 San Diego Padres, but San Fran is just two games back in the Wild Card standings.
The Giants are only eighth in the NL with a .731 team OPS, but they make up for it with quality pitching:
ERA: 3.54 (No. 4 overall)
K/9: 8.08 (No. 1)
WHIP: 1.33 (No. 13)
xFIP: 4.25 (No. 14)
The Giants are also second in the majors with a 43.7 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), so even though defense is difficult to quantify, we can see how they get away with those middling WHIP and xFIP numbers. Can they keep the mighty Reds from parading around the bases this week? The betting odds suggest they can: San Francisco is a -155 chalk on Monday with a total of 7½ runs.
Edinson Volquez vs. Matt Cain
Monday, Aug. 23 - 10:15 p.m. ET
Volquez (4.61 xFIP) has made seven starts since completing his return from Tommy John surgery. That’s a pretty small sample size – as far as pure stuff goes, Volquez is showing a fastball that gets up around 94 mph and a change-up in the low 80s. But he’s also relying more heavily on his curveball, and so far, Volquez has had some difficulty finding the plate compared to his breakout 2008 campaign.
Cain (4.40 xFIP) is his usual reliable workhorse self, but the Giants are once again giving him poor run support at 3.60 per game. The 'under' is 14-9 in Cain’s 25 starts; San Fran is 12-13 for a deficit of 3.98 units.
Travis Wood vs. Jonathan Sanchez
Tuesday, Aug. 24 - 10:15 p.m. ET
This can’t possibly keep up forever, can it? The Reds called up Wood (4.22 xFIP) on June 30, and the rookie nearly pitched a perfect game against the Philadelphia Phillies in just his third start. Wood’s a high-strikeout lefty (7.22 per nine innings thus far), but he’s also benefiting from a ridiculously low .211 BABIP. For now, the Reds are 7-2 in his nine starts for a quick 5.26 units.
Sanchez (4.28 xFIP) is a southpaw with an even higher K rate (9.35 per nine innings), and he threw a no-hitter last July against the San Diego Padres. The Giants are 15-10 in his 25 starts for 5.17 units of profit, with the 'over' at 15-9-1.
Homer Bailey vs. Madison Bumgarner
Wednesday, Aug. 25 - 3:45 p.m. ET
Bailey (4.35 xFIP) made the Reds roster out of spring training, but missed nearly three months with a shoulder inflammation. The blue-chip prospect has made two starts since coming off the DL, allowing just one run in 13 innings for a pair of wins to extend the 'under' to 6-2-3 in his 11 starts.
Bumgarner (4.27 xFIP) has also made 11 starts for the Giants since his call-up from AAA-Fresno and shares the same 7-4 team record as Bailey. But since Bumgarner isn’t quite as highly touted as Bailey, Giants supporters are 3.34 units in the black behind the 21-year-old southpaw, compared to 2.78 units for Bailey and the Reds. The 'under' is 8-3 when Bumgarner takes the mound.