Twins -145 $1450 to win $1000
Indians +130 $1000 to win $1300
Indians +130 $1000 to win $1300
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lndians looks very interestingComment -
The Indians are #1 in MLB as a dog since the all star break. The Tigers are the worst team in MLB as a fav since the all star break.Originally posted by 3PtShooterComment -
That's your analysis for laying 1G?Originally posted by curious
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I like the Indians play. Galarraga has not been good since ALMOST throwing his no hitter.
BOL
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Indians on the road? Seriously?Comment -
I never understand when people bet only two plays like this.. He now has to cover both plays in order to profit.. If the dog wins and the fav loses hes down 150 if the fav wins and the dog loses he comes out with no profit or loss..If the only reason to play these two is because you think they will both win then do one bet as a 2 team parlay for 1k to win whatever.. There's 0 value in it otherwise as you won't profit unless you sweep.. So why not get the most out of it if your goal is to gain money and not come out at even each day.. Guess it makes more sense to just hope not to lose rather than bet to win
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Feel free to fade me.Originally posted by PopularI never understand when people bet only two plays like this.. He now has to cover both plays in order to profit.. If the dog wins and the fav loses hes down 150 if the fav wins and the dog loses he comes out with no profit or loss..If the only reason to play these two is because you think they will both win then do one bet as a 2 team parlay for 1k to win whatever.. There's 0 value in it otherwise as you won't profit unless you sweep.. So why not get the most out of it if your goal is to gain money and not come out at even each day.. Guess it makes more sense to just hope not to lose rather than bet to winComment -
Originally posted by curious
great stat!
dont forget to mention that the indians last 10 have been against KC, Seattle, and Baltimore - of course they did manage to pull off 3 wins there.
and i guess we investigate who the tigers have played recently...Yanks, White Sox, Rays - pulling off 4 wins in those last 10.
I guess both schedules are similar, so it's a good point that you make.
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jaymac,
feel free to fade me. I have a dime on this. So, paste your wager ticket where you bet to win a dime on the Tigers. Tigers are -140, so that will only run you $1400. Okay? We wait to see your wager ticket.Comment -
i'm not betting a dime on the tigers today. and i never said i was. doesnt seem like a good spot to make a high wager on. I was just adding stats to what you posted with the hopes of having a spirited debate based on facts.
I use a local anyways, so for me to post wager tickets online would not solve anything - and i question the majority of people who do post those tickets. it's easy enough to cut and paste something that looks like a 1k wager, when nothing was ventured in the first place.Comment -
It has nothing to do with fading or following.. If the goal is "most value" the only way to achieve it in this situation is a 2 team parlay.. I've followed you before and you've made me money =).. Nothing negative here was just stating my confusions.. Sorry if i offended
Edit: Also if i were to fade i would then put myself in the same situation you're in.. Needing both to win or no money made on the dayComment -
good luck!! i feel both will win...Comment -
Originally posted by curious
don't get offended curious. it's just a bad stat to base a 1k bet on IMO. When a team is a dog for the majority of their recent games, then of course they have a much better chance of winning more dog plays than other teams that arent set as dogs as frequently.
Some less informed members might see this stat of yours and not realized how skewed it really is. And when they see someone posting large plays they may just tail in hopes that the great and knowledgeable Curious knows what he's talking about.Comment -
I love you.Originally posted by Popular
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Good luck today Curious. I'm glad you're keeping your card solid like yesterday. Gives your chances of winning much better chances than betting a full card and going 8-6 or something. These are 2 solid plays today as well. Rays also look good as they are -125 on the road and lost yesterday.Comment -
Lol.. It's nothing but respect.. I'm sure you'll hit both.. Just talking about maximum value.. Will probably tail on the Twins.. Indians aren't enough of a value to risk it on the roadComment -
[QUOTE=Popular;5997277]I never understand when people bet only two plays like this.. He now has to cover both plays in order to profit.. If the dog wins and the fav loses hes down 150 if the fav wins and the dog loses he comes out with no profit or loss..If the only reason to play these two is because you think they will both win then do one bet as a 2 team parlay for 1k to win whatever.. There's 0 value in it otherwise as you won't profit unless you sweep.. So why not get the most out of it if your goal is to gain money and not come out at even each day.. Guess it makes more sense to just hope not to lose rather than bet to win[/Q
Well, that just bout sums it up in a nut shell....lol. Perfect!
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The goal isn't to make money in one day but to make money longterm. If you only worry about having a positive day you are likely going to miss a bunch of +EV bets. I think the parlay argument is way off base for this reason. That being said I have no opinion on the games being played.Comment -
jaymac,
i do know what I am talking about.
The Indians are 15-13 as a dog +$1000 for $100 bets. $1000/$2800 = 36%
The Tigers are 5-12 as a fav, -$1000 for $100 bets. Their average fav line is -130. So -$1000/$2210 = -45%
I'll take 36% over -45% any day.Comment -
Justaguy.. In order to make money in the long term you have to profit on a daily basis.. With only 2 games his chances of profiting with 1 smallish favorite and 1 dog aren't great.. I'm not a percentages guy so i won't even attempt to put one out.. But if you truly believe both will hit isn't the point to profit at the highest amount today in order to have more of a profit long term?.. The maximum value gained today is through a 2 team parlay in THIS situation.. In any other situation the argument wouldn't be valid i agree.. but in THIS situation it isComment -
I firmly disagree with his chances of profiting. He has MORE of a chance to profit with only taking 2 games. Think about it. You go 2-0, over 2k profit. You go 4-3 taking 7 games, you might lose money on the day depending on juice and such. Even taking 3 games and going 2-1 is worse than going 2-0. Your chances of losing increase as well as winning but I believe the more risk you take, the more risk you allow to lose.Originally posted by Popular
When you get greedy, thats when you lose. Slow and steady always wins the race.Comment -
No other amount of games apply to this situation because in this situation he is only playing 2 games in which he has to win both to profit.. So that's an invalid claim in my eyes and has nothing to do with what I'm talking about
Edit: To reiterate I greatly respect what Curious does on a daily basis and he rocks my socks.. Was just making an observationComment -
Ugh, you're invalid. It has everything to do with what you're talking about.Comment -
I'm not talking about him playing MORE games.. I'm talking about in THIS situation when only betting TWO games that if he goes 1-1 means he doesn't PROFIT if he believes they BOTH will win then the MOST value he can get out of THESE two bets is in a 2 team parlay.. It doesn't matter though because he's playing them separately.. I was just stating that for everyone else because there's very little value at this point if they cancel each other outComment -
Parlays do not increase EV, they decrease it because of the juice.Originally posted by PopularComment -
You've got it down.. I wasn't doubting you just stating alternate routes that seem more favorable to the two picks.. Best of luck =)Comment -
good luckOriginally posted by curious
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Indians as a dog on the road since all star break:
SU: 7-6 average line: +165 / -188 on / against: +$560 / -$730 ROI: +43.1% / -29.4%Comment -
Indians scoring and giving up 5 runs a game over the last 5.. Tigers scoring 4 runs a game giving up 7 over same time.. Only reason Indians are in the + is because their on the road.. Galarraga has been nothing since his almost no hitter.. This team hits extremely well for Masterson giving him an average of 9 runs a game in support last 3 starts.. It's a solid bet and the right side of itComment -
liking the indians. tigers havent done anything since the all-star break.Comment -
Popular i see your reasoning, really do...you are partly right, however think of this:
If you wager your 1000 on a parlay, then you are either winning some thing around 2500, or losing 1000...two possible outcomes...
If you wager 1000 on one bet, 1000 on another, then you have 3 outcomes: win 2000, lose some change by winnig one and losing one, or losing 2000 for your two wagers.
I guess what i mean to clarify is that yes, you are right, just putting 1000 to win a parlay is a good idea, however by splitting the wager you have the POSSIBLE outcome of pushing for the day, which is better than losing.
Just my two cents...and please take it as constructive criticisim, or positive comments...not trash talk my friend
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I agree that it's better to push than to lose.. Was just stating alternate routes =)Comment -
Of course, thats why we are here...to think and to discuss...honestly, ive learned ALOT when i see messages or posts like yours and i stop to consider and think of its validity, and then state mine...it teaches me why or why not to do or make certain wagers myself...think of this also...
if you are about 60 or 70 percent sure of a wager then the chance of you to hit both in a parlay is roughly: .60x.60 = .36
so you have .36 chance of winning the 2500..
lets quickly examine the split way:
.6*.6= .36 chance of winning 2000 for the day
.48 chance of pushing
.4*.4=.16 chance of losing 2000 for the day.
so you roll the dice, mostly push, but have almost 2 times more chance to win 2000 than to lose your 2 grand...thats if you are roughly 60% sure of a wager.
BOL CURIUS!!! will tail if i hit my early wagers!Comment -
Adding white sox royals under 9
White Sox / Royals UNDER 9 +100 $1000 to win $1000Comment
