Facts behind the picks - 8.11

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  • WiseGrumpy
    SBR MVP
    • 04-30-10
    • 3654

    #1
    Facts behind the picks - 8.11
    Yesterday was a strong day with the picks I published in detail going 3-2 with a +15 unit day. I thought to try to do this daily.

    Reds +126:


    Cardinals are 1-5 in Wainwrights last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    Cardinals are 0-8 in Wainwrights last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

    Reds are 4-0 in Arroyos last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    Reds are 4-0 in Arroyos last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    Reds are 4-1 in Arroyos last 5 home starts vs. Cardinals.

    Home team is 4-0 in Carlsons last 4 Wednesday games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.

    Wainwright is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two road starts against the Reds this season.

    Arroyo He's 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his last three home starts against the Cardinals.

    Let's add to that the fact the Cards didn't sweep the Reds since 2005.
    The Reds played well yesterday until the 6th then the Cards exploded. This match-up is HUGE for both teams and the Reds can't let the Cards sweep them, simply can't. With the great price, it's a great bet.

    LAA -159:


    Royals are 1-5 in Greinkes last 6 starts vs. Angels.
    Angels are 4-1 in their last 5 Wednesday games with Joyce behind home plate.
    Home team is 4-1 in Joyces last 5 Wednesday games behind home plate vs. Kansas City.
    Home team is 4-1 in Joyces last 5 games behind home plate vs. Kansas City.
    Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 Wednesday games with Joyce behind home plate.
    Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 games with Joyce behind home plate.

    Greinke is 2-6 with a 3.38 ERA in 11 road outings.

    The Angels are a team I bet a lot on early this year and most of all on Weaver. Since then the Angels started struggling but Weaver is still their ace. Against a weak KC side that from one of the best hitting teams became one of the worst, and with a very struggling Greinke I expect another win from the Angels.

    * MONSTER play.

    Jays Vs RedSox UNDER 8 +100:


    Under is 4-1 in Buchholzs last 5 starts vs. Blue Jays.
    Under is 4-0-2 in Gibsons last 6 Wednesday games behind home plate.
    Under is 4-0 in Gibsons last 4 Wednesday games behind home plate vs. Boston
    Under is 17-4-5 in Gibsons last 26 games behind home plate.

    This is one of the strongest UNDER ump's in the MLB. To add to that the fact two of the best pitchers will play and the price and we have a very strong bet.
    Buchholz has been amazing all season long, and has gave up 3 or less runs in his last ten starts if we take out one bad outing against the A's.
    Macrum didn't pitch too well in his last outing but is very solid and very good at home.

    Phillies -133:


    Two of the best pitchers in the league meet today, when Oswalt is looking for his first win for the Phillies. He NEVER lost in this park. The Dodgers will have Billingsley which has been amazing lately but the run support he is getting is pathetic. The Dodgers are hitting bad lately and yesterday hit for all those games they didn't when they scored a season high 15 runs. After that outburst I expect them to cool down, big time.

    The Phillies won 13 of 15 at home scoring at least six runs eight times in that stretch.

    The Dodgers didn't win four in a row since June 6-9.

    I expect the Phillies to keep scoring and Roy to keep his streak in this park.

    Astros +123:


    I have bet a lot on the Astros lately and thnx to the prices we get on them they became a money maker. Yesterday we got killed at the 9th, but with Wandy on the mound and injuries on the Braves side, this is a must bet again.

    Home team is 4-0 in Muchlinskis last 4 games behind home plate vs. Houston.
    Astros are 7-0 in Rodriguezs last 7 Wednesday starts.

    Heyward and Jones will probably be out.

    Hanson has pitched well, but the Braves lost all his 5 outings since the All-Star because of terrible run support.

    Rodriguez is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three home starts against Atlanta. He has allowed a total of one earned run in his last three outings while striking out 23 in 21 1/3 innings.

    The Astros are hitting pretty well and have a great pitcher on the mound. We should win.

    Rockies +102:


    This pick might seem odd since the Rockies are terrible on the road and hardly ever score against the Mets on the road, but there is an interesting trend that I can't ignore and I will go with the dog:

    Jeff Francis has alternated wins and lost for the past 8 games. Today should be a win. With that everytime he gives up a lot of runs, he plays well the next game.
    Nisese gives up at least 3 runs after he gives up 1 runs, today should be 3 runs or more.

    With that home favs of -101-120 are 1-4 against tonights ump.
    All that are strong and the price is right.
  • WiseGrumpy
    SBR MVP
    • 04-30-10
    • 3654

    #2
    Added the Astros.
    Check my thread to see the unit size on each play.
    Comment
    • superman613
      Restricted User
      • 06-15-10
      • 906

      #3
      solid card...GL today with your plays

      Comment
      • Joe_Shabadoo
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 09-17-09
        • 607

        #4
        Red-Sox --- hit with them on the reverse run-line yesterday; probably the only play for me tomorrow.

        Comment
        • WiseGrumpy
          SBR MVP
          • 04-30-10
          • 3654

          #5
          Thnx guys.
          Added the Rockies.
          Comment
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