First the recap. Yesterday was very good, went 2-0 on straight plays winning the Dodgers over (24 runs) and the over in the Cubs game (14 runs). I also hit a nice 4 team parlay on separate games. Let's keep this train moving. For today, let's start it off with the afternoon games. Looking at this Cardinals/Reds game to kick off the afternoon. We have Adam Wainwright going for the Cardinals and Bronson Arroyo on the rubber for the Reds. Wainwright is 16-6 on the year with a 2.07 ERA, and in his last 3 starts he is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA. Wainwright is a stud, there is no denying that. However, he does have a weakness and that weakness is road starts. All 6 of his losses have come on the road this year. He is 5-6 in away games and all of his numbers jump when he leaves Missouri. In 81 innings pitched he has giving up 65 hits, 28 runs, and 9 of his 11 long balls have come on the road. Also those 28 runs are out of a total of 42 for the season, so when Mr. Wainwright gives up runs, he clearly does it on the road. He pitched against this same Reds team back in May and took the 4-3 loss. He went 6.0 innings, giving up 7 hits, 4 runs, 3 walks, and gave up a dinger. I also noticed in road starts his opponents on base percentage is at it's highest compared to all other situations at .292. Now let's talk about Bronson.
Bronson Arroyo is 12-6 on the year with a 3.83 ERA, and in his last 3 starts he is 2-1 with a terrific 1.23 ERA. In those last 3 starts he has pitched 22 innings, giving up 12 hits, and only surrendered 5 runs. Also, his opponents on base percentage was a measly .232 and his WHIP was 0.77 in the past 3 starts. His team is averaging 3.33 runs in the past 3 which isn't great, but he's been pitching so well it doesn't matter as his opponent has only been able to average a measly 1.67 per start. Mr. Arroyo likes the day time as well. He is 5-3 in 10 day time starts with a 2.94 ERA. Almost all of his numbers improve compared to pitching away or at night. In 67.1 innings pitched he has giving up 54 hits, 22 earned runs, and striking out 40. The Reds are 7-3 as a team when Bronson takes the rubber during the day. They also give him 5.10 runs of support while the opponent is only averaging 3.20. Throw out his last start against the Cardinals which was in St. Louis and you will see this guy dominated the Cards at home. He has won 3 consecutive home starts going past the 8th inning in each. Let me break it down for you. May 16th he faced the Cards and threw a 108 pitch complete game. He gave up 7 hits and only 2 runs and the Reds won 7-2. April 8th he faced the Cards and went 8 innings, giving up 4 hits, and only 1 run. The Reds won 2-1. And then again late last year he faced the Cards in September and went 8.1 innings, again giving up only 4 hits and one run, and the Reds went on to win 6-1.
The umpire in today's game is Mark Carlson. Mark is a home team's umpire clearly. Home team's are 15-9 in 24 of Carlson's starts this year. He has actually umped 2 of Arroyo's starts this year as well. Both of them resulting in winners for the Reds. It gets even better for anybody backing the Reds as I found some overwhelming stats to back up the home team when Mr. Carlson is calling balls and strikes. Home team is 4-0 in Carlsons last 4 Wednesday games behind home plate vs. St. Louis. Home team is 20-7 in Carlsons last 27 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis. Home team is 8-3 in Carlsons last 11 games behind home plate vs. Cincinnati. Home team is 36-15 in Carlsons last 51 Wednesday games behind home plate (70%), and the Home team is 29-13 (69%) in Carlsons last 42 games behind home plate. As I looked into the match up and current situations, I felt even better about my decision. Cardinals are 7-16 in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 1-5 in Wainwrights last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 0-8 in Wainwrights last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. This is a good situation for the Reds as not only are they avoiding a home sweep, but they love Game 3's. They are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series, and they are 11-4 on the season in Game 3's coming off a loss. Make matters worse for Cards backers, the Cardinals are a miserable 5-11 in Game 3's coming off a win. I got more for ya. Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 Wednesday games.
Reds are 12-3 in Arroyos last 15 starts vs. National League Central. Reds are 6-2 in Arroyos last 8 starts during game 3 of a series. Reds are 4-1 in Arroyos last 5 home starts vs. Cardinals. I can probably keep going, but I think I got my point across. My play today is for the Reds to avoid the home sweep and take care of Wainwright and the Cardinals today at a nice price. Let's hope this pans out the way I see it. Fade or play, I wish all my friends here the best of luck. Let's get it!
Cincinnati Reds (+125)
Risking 200 to Win 250
Bronson Arroyo is 12-6 on the year with a 3.83 ERA, and in his last 3 starts he is 2-1 with a terrific 1.23 ERA. In those last 3 starts he has pitched 22 innings, giving up 12 hits, and only surrendered 5 runs. Also, his opponents on base percentage was a measly .232 and his WHIP was 0.77 in the past 3 starts. His team is averaging 3.33 runs in the past 3 which isn't great, but he's been pitching so well it doesn't matter as his opponent has only been able to average a measly 1.67 per start. Mr. Arroyo likes the day time as well. He is 5-3 in 10 day time starts with a 2.94 ERA. Almost all of his numbers improve compared to pitching away or at night. In 67.1 innings pitched he has giving up 54 hits, 22 earned runs, and striking out 40. The Reds are 7-3 as a team when Bronson takes the rubber during the day. They also give him 5.10 runs of support while the opponent is only averaging 3.20. Throw out his last start against the Cardinals which was in St. Louis and you will see this guy dominated the Cards at home. He has won 3 consecutive home starts going past the 8th inning in each. Let me break it down for you. May 16th he faced the Cards and threw a 108 pitch complete game. He gave up 7 hits and only 2 runs and the Reds won 7-2. April 8th he faced the Cards and went 8 innings, giving up 4 hits, and only 1 run. The Reds won 2-1. And then again late last year he faced the Cards in September and went 8.1 innings, again giving up only 4 hits and one run, and the Reds went on to win 6-1.
The umpire in today's game is Mark Carlson. Mark is a home team's umpire clearly. Home team's are 15-9 in 24 of Carlson's starts this year. He has actually umped 2 of Arroyo's starts this year as well. Both of them resulting in winners for the Reds. It gets even better for anybody backing the Reds as I found some overwhelming stats to back up the home team when Mr. Carlson is calling balls and strikes. Home team is 4-0 in Carlsons last 4 Wednesday games behind home plate vs. St. Louis. Home team is 20-7 in Carlsons last 27 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis. Home team is 8-3 in Carlsons last 11 games behind home plate vs. Cincinnati. Home team is 36-15 in Carlsons last 51 Wednesday games behind home plate (70%), and the Home team is 29-13 (69%) in Carlsons last 42 games behind home plate. As I looked into the match up and current situations, I felt even better about my decision. Cardinals are 7-16 in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 1-5 in Wainwrights last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 0-8 in Wainwrights last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. This is a good situation for the Reds as not only are they avoiding a home sweep, but they love Game 3's. They are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series, and they are 11-4 on the season in Game 3's coming off a loss. Make matters worse for Cards backers, the Cardinals are a miserable 5-11 in Game 3's coming off a win. I got more for ya. Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 Wednesday games.
Reds are 12-3 in Arroyos last 15 starts vs. National League Central. Reds are 6-2 in Arroyos last 8 starts during game 3 of a series. Reds are 4-1 in Arroyos last 5 home starts vs. Cardinals. I can probably keep going, but I think I got my point across. My play today is for the Reds to avoid the home sweep and take care of Wainwright and the Cardinals today at a nice price. Let's hope this pans out the way I see it. Fade or play, I wish all my friends here the best of luck. Let's get it!
Cincinnati Reds (+125)
Risking 200 to Win 250
