OK, tough card. As of now my leans are...
TOP PLAY - PHI ML - What a great price on them at home off a day off on a continued stand here. I realize that on the surface, Padilla is the better pitcher but Kendrick has been quietly solid over the past 6 weeks. He's not fared all that well against LA bats in his career but he's in his best form right now (which doesn't say much admittedly). Padilla has had a few good starts but he's spotty on the road and PHI bats will be ready in this one. Might sprinkle some on the over 8.5 here too. A few trends
LA DODGERS are 1-9 (-8.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 28-10 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
DET ML - Rather roll with a relatively consistent Sherzer at home than Helickson in his 2nd start on the road. I know DET bats have been anemic but I think they can get enough to get the W here with Guillen back. Not a huge play but I like the value here. I know TB has DET number but I'll side with the home team in a close game here.
ARI ML - I'm getting the better pitcher at +126 facing a team with a losing record at home? Purely a value play here. Enright hasn't given up more than 3 runs in 7 starts this season. Braun and Hart are out against for MIN. Parra is up and down and ARI has the less horrible of the two pens. Under looks good here too. Parra has been good vs ARI.
SF/CHI over 6.5 - Would rather play SF ML but too much juice. Total is just too low here. Lince even at his best is a 2-3 run pitcher these days. Both pens were burned out yesterday. DEMPSTER is 1-7 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 4.59 and a WHIP of 1.575.
TOP PLAY - PHI ML - What a great price on them at home off a day off on a continued stand here. I realize that on the surface, Padilla is the better pitcher but Kendrick has been quietly solid over the past 6 weeks. He's not fared all that well against LA bats in his career but he's in his best form right now (which doesn't say much admittedly). Padilla has had a few good starts but he's spotty on the road and PHI bats will be ready in this one. Might sprinkle some on the over 8.5 here too. A few trends
LA DODGERS are 1-9 (-8.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 28-10 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
DET ML - Rather roll with a relatively consistent Sherzer at home than Helickson in his 2nd start on the road. I know DET bats have been anemic but I think they can get enough to get the W here with Guillen back. Not a huge play but I like the value here. I know TB has DET number but I'll side with the home team in a close game here.
ARI ML - I'm getting the better pitcher at +126 facing a team with a losing record at home? Purely a value play here. Enright hasn't given up more than 3 runs in 7 starts this season. Braun and Hart are out against for MIN. Parra is up and down and ARI has the less horrible of the two pens. Under looks good here too. Parra has been good vs ARI.
SF/CHI over 6.5 - Would rather play SF ML but too much juice. Total is just too low here. Lince even at his best is a 2-3 run pitcher these days. Both pens were burned out yesterday. DEMPSTER is 1-7 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 4.59 and a WHIP of 1.575.