Question for those of you on BOS +114, StL +122 and/or NYY +121

Darkside Magick · 08-10-10, 03:29 PM

the yankess is a square play... burnett back still hurt and that means nothing but breaking balls
reds should beat the cards!
i like the sox over the jays

dodger33 · 08-10-10, 03:29 PM

Very interesting... Burnett has been crappy at best lately. Cincy is getting a lot of backing from the public tonight so that line must be just right and boston toronto has just about 50 50 betting.

MrTwiz · 08-10-10, 03:29 PM

Big games/Div races, edge goes to home team. But yes i did figure them to be more of a -115/+105 type of line

Still I'll take tor, cin, and the yanks

No coincidences · 08-10-10, 03:31 PM

StL, for instance, was what -135 last night?

Now they're +122 coming off a convincing win?

Even though the pitching matchups are more "equal," doesn't that say something?

MrTwiz · 08-10-10, 03:33 PM

Their bullpen is in shambles right now, even though they got to rest last night, still the reds have more 9th inning wins than anyone, if its a close game, id want to have the reds

tatddy · 08-10-10, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

StL, for instance, was what -135 last night?

Now they're +122 coming off a convincing win?

Even though the pitching matchups are more "equal," doesn't that say something?

Leake v Carpenter was a mismatch right from the start. Today CIN should be favored, even more so coming off that loss. Garcia is ready to regress at any time and Cueto is in a good spot despite his mediocre showings against STL. Books don't want people pounding CIN.

No coincidences · 08-10-10, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by tatddy

Leake v Carpenter was a mismatch right from the start. Today CIN should be favored, even more so coming off that loss. Garcia is ready to regress at any time and Cueto is in a good spot despite his mediocre showings against STL. Books don't want people pounding CIN.

Honestly, I figured CIN would be -115 at best today. I thought TOR would be about -105 or -110, and TEX about the same.

The books want action first and foremost. Oddsmakers want to set a line that will draw the interest of both sides equally. By giving StL, BOS and NYY at + money, I think they've done that. IMHO, all three are a trap.

THE PROFIT · 08-10-10, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

StL, for instance, was what -135 last night?

Now they're +122 coming off a convincing win?

Even though the pitching matchups are more "equal," doesn't that say something?

I wouldnt call that a convincing win. All 7 of their runs were in one inning from a meltdown just like Leake had against Pitt. They scored no more while Cincy scored 3. Just like Pitt scored 1 more while Cincy scored 6.

1 bad inning from a pitcher giving up 7 and then nothing else from the offense is far from convincing

No coincidences · 08-10-10, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by THE PROFIT

I wouldnt call that a convincing win. All 7 of their runs were in one inning from a meltdown just like Leake had against Pitt. They scored no more while Cincy scored 3. Just like Pitt scored 1 more while Cincy scored 6.

1 bad inning from a pitcher giving up 7 and then nothing else from the offense is far from convincing

No matter how you slice it, it's a 4-run win in a game that was never in doubt after that inning. Cards are now 8-5 vs. the Reds this year.

Another interesting fact: in the 13 games head-to-head, you know how many times CIN has been favored this season? Once.

PAYTON20 · 08-10-10, 03:52 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Another interesting fact: in the 13 games head-to-head, you know how many times CIN has been favored this season? Once.

Did they win?

You also have to take into consideration that St. Louis has been the outright favorite to win the division since pre-season. The books probably didn't know if Cincy was for real or not earlier in the year

dodger33 · 08-10-10, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Another interesting fact: in the 13 games head-to-head, you know how many times CIN has been favored this season? Once.

Did they win?

PAYTON20 · 08-10-10, 03:55 PM

BTW NoCoin, thanks for trying to back me off the A's last night

Good hunch on Seattle. Even better hit on your SF play!

og4667 · 08-10-10, 04:05 PM

don't read too much into the lines it will give you a headache. This isn't basketball/football with inflated pointspreads, just pick a winner. You also may be right that all three are a trap but all 3 won't win. I will comment on the red sox game and even the players that are still on that team and not on the DL have great numbers vs ricky. Books can only set the line and blue jays should be favorites in based on the recent play but it doesn't mean the Red Sox won't tee off on ricky like they have done in the past.

I.L.S · 08-10-10, 04:06 PM

Im on BLUE JAYS and RANGERS ,and not because the "wierd" odds...

$Burm$ · 08-10-10, 04:07 PM

i like the cards 2 win 2night.

Joe_Shabadoo · 08-10-10, 04:19 PM

How I perceive it, is that public perception, though being commonplace, is expected to be more of a factor in the aforementioned games.

Boston:

The itinerary of players on the DL, and what one would think seeing the injury list on a match-up preview
Toronto's recent bashing of Tampa, and the allure of the slugging that they offer
The collective sentiment of Matsuzaka's season performance

New York:

Um --- A.J. Burnett.

No coincidences · 08-10-10, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by PAYTON20

BTW NoCoin, thanks for trying to back me off the A's last night

Good hunch on Seattle. Even better hit on your SF play!

Rixsaw · 08-10-10, 05:30 PM

Jays just swept TB. I can see why Jays is fav.