First the recap, lost with the Cubs yesterday. That's what happens when I don't spend my normal time breaking the game down and on top of that Silva was taking out because he couldn't breathe I guess. Let's move on and get us a winner. For tonight I'm looking at this Blue Jays/Yankees game. We have Brandon Morrow going for the Blue Jays and A.J. Burnett going for the Yankees. Morrow is 7-6 on the year with a 4.62 ERA, but he is 2-0 in his last 3 starts as the Blue Jays are averaging 7 runs in support when this guy is on the mound. Morrow faced the Yankees on the 4th of July this year and lasted 6 innings, giving up 9 hits and surrendered 5 runs. He got the no decision and his team lost 7-6. The thing is Mr. Morrow is great at home with a 6-1 record, it's when he has to go on the road with his dismissal 1-5 record and gigantic 6.23 ERA. On the road this guy walks a lot of batters, (34 walks) and more than half of his home runs given up have come on the road (5 home runs). I have a gut feeling that Brandon might have another rough outing tonight.
Yanks counter with A.J. who is 9-8 on the year with a 4.52 ERA. He is 2-1 in his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 2.70. In those 3 games, his team is producing 6.7 runs per start. He has faced the Blue Jays twice this year, the most recent start was impressive going 6.2 innings, only giving up 4 hits and no runs. Somehow, he got the no decision and his team lost 6-1. The start before that, back on June 4th, was ugly. He went 6 innings, giving up 6 hits and 6 runs. 3 of those hits left the ballpark, and he also walked 4. A.J.'s worst starts have come at night. He is 6-6 on the year in night starts with a 4.93 ERA and has given up 13 long balls. And Toronto has already showed us that they can go long on A.J. As I looked into the match up I found some interesting things. Over is 29-14-3 in Blue Jays last 46 during game 1 of a series (63%). Over is 5-1 in Morrows last 6 starts as a road underdog. Vegas has them installed as big underdogs today currently sitting at +170 at most shops.
As I looked onto the Yankees side, I found even more compelling stats to back my play today. Over is 9-1-1 in Yankees last 11 games as a home favorite. Over is 17-6-3 in Yankees last 26 home games vs. a right-handed starter (65%). And the one I found the most interesting is the fact is the Yankees break out in a big way when coming home off a road trip. Over is 36-16-3 in Yankees last 55 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days (65%). I do not have any stats on the umpire unfortunately in this one, but I will give you some weather condition angles to make up for it. I also think today is the day A-Rod will get #600. I expect home runs and I expect more than 2 of them. The wind is blowing 8mph to the South in today's game. That's means it will be blowing from right to left. The wind has blown in this direction in 18 games this year. In those games the over is an overwhelming 13-5, games are averaging basically 3 home runs a game sitting at 2.95. Average runs for the Yankees when it's these current conditions sits at 6.60 and the opponent is averaging 4.30, that's nearly 11 runs per game. What else intrigues me is how Vegas had the balls to make this total 9½, when it should have been more like 8.5. Both of these starters have recently pitched against each other and in particular was Morrow's starts where he had identical 6-1 games when he pitched. That's 7 runs for both games, yet you make this match up almost 10? Really Vegas? I don't know guys, but I hope this play gets me back on track as I do not like to lose, period. I think I put in the best I could for this game, and it should produce me a winner. Fade or play, I wish my friends good luck here. Let's start the week off right
Toronto Blue Jays/New York Yankees Over 9½ (+100)
Risking 200 to Win 200
Yanks counter with A.J. who is 9-8 on the year with a 4.52 ERA. He is 2-1 in his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 2.70. In those 3 games, his team is producing 6.7 runs per start. He has faced the Blue Jays twice this year, the most recent start was impressive going 6.2 innings, only giving up 4 hits and no runs. Somehow, he got the no decision and his team lost 6-1. The start before that, back on June 4th, was ugly. He went 6 innings, giving up 6 hits and 6 runs. 3 of those hits left the ballpark, and he also walked 4. A.J.'s worst starts have come at night. He is 6-6 on the year in night starts with a 4.93 ERA and has given up 13 long balls. And Toronto has already showed us that they can go long on A.J. As I looked into the match up I found some interesting things. Over is 29-14-3 in Blue Jays last 46 during game 1 of a series (63%). Over is 5-1 in Morrows last 6 starts as a road underdog. Vegas has them installed as big underdogs today currently sitting at +170 at most shops.
As I looked onto the Yankees side, I found even more compelling stats to back my play today. Over is 9-1-1 in Yankees last 11 games as a home favorite. Over is 17-6-3 in Yankees last 26 home games vs. a right-handed starter (65%). And the one I found the most interesting is the fact is the Yankees break out in a big way when coming home off a road trip. Over is 36-16-3 in Yankees last 55 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days (65%). I do not have any stats on the umpire unfortunately in this one, but I will give you some weather condition angles to make up for it. I also think today is the day A-Rod will get #600. I expect home runs and I expect more than 2 of them. The wind is blowing 8mph to the South in today's game. That's means it will be blowing from right to left. The wind has blown in this direction in 18 games this year. In those games the over is an overwhelming 13-5, games are averaging basically 3 home runs a game sitting at 2.95. Average runs for the Yankees when it's these current conditions sits at 6.60 and the opponent is averaging 4.30, that's nearly 11 runs per game. What else intrigues me is how Vegas had the balls to make this total 9½, when it should have been more like 8.5. Both of these starters have recently pitched against each other and in particular was Morrow's starts where he had identical 6-1 games when he pitched. That's 7 runs for both games, yet you make this match up almost 10? Really Vegas? I don't know guys, but I hope this play gets me back on track as I do not like to lose, period. I think I put in the best I could for this game, and it should produce me a winner. Fade or play, I wish my friends good luck here. Let's start the week off right
Toronto Blue Jays/New York Yankees Over 9½ (+100)
Risking 200 to Win 200
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