Mariners vs. White Sox Play - It's A Total!

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  • Mr Windy City
    Restricted User
    • 12-27-09
    • 5018

    #1
    Mariners vs. White Sox Play - It's A Total!
    Pushed earlier on the Phillies game because Brad Lidge is worthless pos that does not deserve a job, but that's besides the point. Let's get us a winner on the night card. Breaking down this Mariners/White Sox game and I have looked in and out of this match up to figure out why I shouldn't take the under. I couldn't find one. We have Felix Hernandez and John Danks on the mound tonight. These two know each other very well as they both pitched last series less than 10 days ago in Seattle. And they both were FANTASTIC. King Felix pitched on the 21st against the White Sox and he dominated. He went 8 innings only giving up 2 hits, 0 runs and struck out 8 batters. He was mowing this White Sox lineup down averaging only 11 pitches each inning. What intrigues me about Felix is that he is just terrific against the White Sox. In his last 3 starts against the White Sox dating back to '09 he is 3-0 and has not given up a SINGLE RUN in those starts. That's right Mr. Hernandez has held the White Sox scoreless over the course of 2 years, crazy shit huh?

    Onto Mr. Danks. Guy has also been fantastic as of late going 3-0 his last 3 starts and holding 2 of those opponents scoreless. One of those shutouts was against this same Mariners team on July 20th. He went 7.2 innings, surrendering only 2 hits, and stuck out 8. Danks, just like his counterpart has dominated the Mariners. He is 3-1 in his last 4 starts against them and the Mariners have only managed to score 4 total runs on him over the course of 2 years. As I looked at the match up I found some nice numbers to support my play. Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 vs. American League Central. Under is 7-2-2 in Mariners last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter. Under is 20-6 in Mariners last 26 (76%) vs. a team with a winning record. I also found out that the Under is 17-6-3 in Hernandezs last 26 road starts vs. a team with a winning record, and the Under is 19-7-3 in Hernandezs last 29 starts as an underdog. White Sox are supporting my under cause as well. Under is 19-7 in White Sox last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and the Under is 20-6 in Danks' last 26 vs. American League West. I have no info on the umpire as this is Game 1 of the series so we won't have the rotation set until Game 2. The wind is blowing 10mph from the East, which would have the wind blowing straight in from left field at U.S. Cellular field. I might be wrong, but I'm gonna say runs will be hard to come by tonight on the Southside. As always for good measure, here are a few other things that caught my eye. I wish you all best of luck and let's keep this train moving

    Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
    Under is 4-0 in Danks' last 4 starts vs. Mariners
    Under is 16-6-4 in Hernandezs last 26 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    Under is 8-3-1 in Hernandezs last 12 starts vs. American League Central.
    Under is 35-14-4 in Hernandezs last 53 road starts.

    Not sure what you guys are getting it at, but I suggest you play it at 7 if you want the under. That's what I got it at with my local and obviously you can play it at 5dimes as well.

    Seattle Mariners/Chicago White Sox Under 7 (-120)
    Risking 240 to Win 200
  • darkenergy
    SBR MVP
    • 01-08-09
    • 4013

    #2
    ah ha..................I got ya this time. BOL my friend.
    Comment
    • ToNyyy
      SBR MVP
      • 07-21-10
      • 1009

      #3
      Hey Mr.Windy City, I did a bet last week, not sure if you remember me. But can you give me a loan of 100 points. I can pay you back 120 in 24 hours.
      Comment
      • 2daBank
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-26-09
        • 88966

        #4
        ive been wanting to play this under all day, just keep holding off for some reason....gl
        Comment
        • Chi_archie
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 07-22-08
          • 63167

          #5
          good luck, I really like this play too..... the current sox hit under .200 against felix in 116 ab's with a .503 ops....
          Comment
          • Pauulzcappin
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 04-23-10
            • 20295

            #6
            Probably a 3-0 game.
            Comment
            • fox sixers
              Restricted User
              • 02-07-10
              • 821

              #7
              under on 5 dimes just moved to 6.5.. what are your thoughts windy? obviously that's a possible tough call. under is +115 over is -125 GREAT WORK BUD
              Comment
              • Mr Windy City
                Restricted User
                • 12-27-09
                • 5018

                #8
                Originally posted by fox sixers
                under on 5 dimes just moved to 6.5.. what are your thoughts windy? obviously that's a possible tough call. under is +115 over is -125 GREAT WORK BUD
                It has been 6.5 at 5dimes. But you can click the arrow and use the drop down menu to play the under of 7 at -120. I still think 6.5 is good, I just like the insurance. Thanks man.
                Comment
                • darkenergy
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-08-09
                  • 4013

                  #9
                  Originally posted by fox sixers
                  under on 5 dimes just moved to 6.5.. what are your thoughts windy? obviously that's a possible tough call. under is +115 over is -125 GREAT WORK BUD
                  6.5 +110, brought it back to 7 for -120. I think that what he did. SBR book has UNDER 7 -125
                  Comment
                  • Mr Windy City
                    Restricted User
                    • 12-27-09
                    • 5018

                    #10
                    Originally posted by ToNyyy
                    Hey Mr.Windy City, I did a bet last week, not sure if you remember me. But can you give me a loan of 100 points. I can pay you back 120 in 24 hours.
                    I just payed off 2 loans myself, sorry buddy maybe in a few days. Post in the point forum I'm sure someone can help you out.
                    Comment
                    • Mr Windy City
                      Restricted User
                      • 12-27-09
                      • 5018

                      #11
                      Originally posted by darkenergy
                      6.5 +110, brought it back to 7 for -120. I think that what he did. SBR book has UNDER 7 -125
                      Actually I played this with my local who has it at 7 -120 just like 5Dimes.
                      Comment
                      • fox sixers
                        Restricted User
                        • 02-07-10
                        • 821

                        #12
                        my bad.. i knew that. thanks
                        Comment
                        • Mr Windy City
                          Restricted User
                          • 12-27-09
                          • 5018

                          #13
                          Originally posted by fox sixers
                          my bad.. i knew that. thanks
                          no problem, anytime.
                          Comment
                          • bballs84
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 11-11-09
                            • 5461

                            #14
                            I have 6.5 at EVEN Gonna let it ride
                            Comment
                            • fox sixers
                              Restricted User
                              • 02-07-10
                              • 821

                              #15
                              I know I am probab;y over thinking.. just been a struggle the last couple weeks. I really agree with your play..

                              but do you put any stock in line movements that go up down -5/-10.. etc.. like under 7 just moved to -115 on 5 dimes.. does that ever mean anything to you windy? not tonight. talking about in generally. when lines move slightly..

                              thank you
                              Comment
                              • Mr Windy City
                                Restricted User
                                • 12-27-09
                                • 5018

                                #16
                                Originally posted by bballs84
                                I have 6.5 at EVEN Gonna let it ride
                                Good Luck, bballs!
                                Comment
                                • bballs84
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 11-11-09
                                  • 5461

                                  #17
                                  THanks WC lets get that $
                                  Comment
                                  • Mr Windy City
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 12-27-09
                                    • 5018

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by fox sixers
                                    I know I am probab;y over thinking.. just been a struggle the last couple weeks. I really agree with your play..

                                    but do you put any stock in line movements that go up down -5/-10.. etc.. like under 7 just moved to -115 on 5 dimes.. does that ever mean anything to you windy? not tonight. talking about in generally. when lines move slightly..

                                    thank you
                                    Depends on the situation, but yes sometimes it does. In this particular movement though I wouldn't put much thought into it. It has been at 6.5 at a lot of books all day and they all have been juiced to hell on the over. My guess is 5Dimes and numerous other books may move to 7 soon and they are just adjusting. 5 and 10 cent moves really shouldn't set off any alarms on a total. They are simply adjusting to the money that is coming in. I pay attention to line moves wayyyy more when it comes to the NFL or NBA, but in baseball, not so much. Hope this helps
                                    Comment
                                    • fox sixers
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 02-07-10
                                      • 821

                                      #19
                                      just want to make sure you see my post WC haha. you posted right after mine lol
                                      Comment
                                      • fox sixers
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 02-07-10
                                        • 821

                                        #20
                                        helps a lot. thanks
                                        Comment
                                        • Mr Windy City
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 12-27-09
                                          • 5018

                                          #21
                                          I cant help myself:

                                          Bonus Play:

                                          No write up on this one as I do not have enough time and it's just a small play, but I gotta take this I can't help myself

                                          Kansas City Royals +100
                                          Risking 100 to Win 100
                                          Comment
                                          • bballs84
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 11-11-09
                                            • 5461

                                            #22
                                            Already on it.. Welcome aboard
                                            Comment
                                            • Mr Windy City
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 12-27-09
                                              • 5018

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by bballs84
                                              Already on it.. Welcome aboard
                                              lol, nice! Let's do it!
                                              Comment
                                              • No coincidences
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 01-18-10
                                                • 76300

                                                #24
                                                Another bullshit finish.
                                                Comment
                                                • darkenergy
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-08-09
                                                  • 4013

                                                  #25
                                                  Damm, Mr. WC.....2 total tied today, but glad no damage there.
                                                  Sorry for the fellow who took UNDER 6.5 above.
                                                  Comment
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